popo

Will Housing Bottom in 2010 or 2012?

I'm going to throw this out there because I haven't seen anyone else say it:

Housing is going to flatline for 20-25 years.

Why? Because 78% of high end real estate is owned by baby-boomers. They will be retiring and dying over the next two to three decades -- and their homes will be sold for downsizing, or liquidated by their progeny (No, the kids won't keep the house. They never do). This constitutes a return to the market of the majority of high-end real estate. Who's going to buy it? You heard the population was going up? Wrong. The population is going up at the lowest income levels -- they can't and won't rescue housing.

One doesn't remove the largest US population, and the largest population of homeowners from the market and expect to see a rebound in two or four years. That's just silly. What we have here is an unprecedented shift in population dynamics -- it will (and must) be accompanied by an unprecedented shift in the price of their most valued assets.

Housing will recover in 2030 to 2035.

The largest bubble in the history of the world is bursting, and you want a turnaround in two years? Take off the tinfoil hat.