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Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'

Your article is based on technical analysis, and utterly dodges the supply issue. You can't compare demand for dot-com stocks with demand for energy. Energy demand is relatively inelastic despite the academic economists' belief that demand destruction must occur. Furthermore, closed-system analysis of oil which doesn't account for Indian and Chinese growth is an exercise in silliness. There are only two points that are necessary to answer this issue: (1) Global demand for oil is growing exponentially. (2) Supply is not. Whether or not you believe supply is shrinking is irrelevant to this analysis. All that is necessary to agree on is that supply is *not* growing exponentially to keep up with demand. Oil will, and must go higher. And for those who believe in alternative fuels: Show me. And that includes planes, freight vehicles shipping.

Will Housing Bottom in 2010 or 2012?

I'm going to throw this out there because I haven't seen anyone else say it:

Housing is going to flatline for 20-25 years.

Why? Because 78% of high end real estate is owned by baby-boomers. They will be retiring and dying over the next two to three decades -- and their homes will be sold for downsizing, or liquidated by their progeny (No, the kids won't keep the house. They never do). This constitutes a return to the market of the majority of high-end real estate. Who's going to buy it? You heard the population was going up? Wrong. The population is going up at the lowest income levels -- they can't and won't rescue housing.

One doesn't remove the largest US population, and the largest population of homeowners from the market and expect to see a rebound in two or four years. That's just silly. What we have here is an unprecedented shift in population dynamics -- it will (and must) be accompanied by an unprecedented shift in the price of their most valued assets.

Housing will recover in 2030 to 2035.

The largest bubble in the history of the world is bursting, and you want a turnaround in two years? Take off the tinfoil hat.