munny

The Non-Stimulating Stimulus Bill

Like people on social security and medicare?


On Sep 02 02:13 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> 1 uncle has made an excellent point but in fact it goes deeper<br/>
>
> if you ant to stimulate the economy give each working person who
> has made over 10,000 per year a 3000 dollar voucher which must be
> used on ANY stock that pays a dividend and has to be held a minumum
> of 5 years or the credit +10% penatly are paid back
>
> This will imporove the percentage that own stocks from 50% to almost
> 75%
>
> Many of these working peopel who contribute to society can now take
> the money saving for an IRA and instead spend that money
>
> Why should peopel who do not work and instead take resources from
> socirty be rewarded?

Has President Obama's Mortgage Modification Plan Failed?

The program relies upon lenders doing something. I entered the process for fun and my lender was so unresponsive that I finally wrote and simply withdrew my application. Two days later the lender (Taylor Bean) was reported as having its own financial problems and had laid off many employees. It was a huge lender and its problems certainly meant that it couldn't sell paper, so my process was apparently doomed anyway. Hard to pin that on Obama.

Of course, why refinance a loan for a borrower who has never missed a payment and had enough of a down payment that the mortgage is apparently not "upside down"?

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Well, I had a car I was going to live with for several more years and I found myself buying a new car several years early, going from 12 MPG to almost 50 MPG in the process. I suspect there are many people who bought who were not in the market before the program was established.

For me, the effect was: I paid state sales taxes of almost $2,000 in a state with budget problems when I would otherwise have paid nothing; a young salesman got an unexpected commission (and his very first auto sale in a new career, in fact). I am sure there are a lot of other benefits that will flow through, like maybe the dealer will make more taxable income, other employee salaries will be paid, etc.

The program is an attempt to stimulate demand for vehicles IMMEDIATELY, not five years from now.

Is it a smart program? I am not sure.

Dr. Stephen Leeb on Commodities and Inflation - Is He a Genius or Alarmist?

Inflation in relation to the US dollar may actually be the result of a tacit "devaluation" of the dollar as it sinks in relation to other currencies as well as general inflationary trends. In a "devaluation" scenario, prices of everything would rise in dollar terms even if other currencies had mild price inflation. This was seen somewhat during the last oil price spike -- in Euros, the prices spiked less than they did in dollar terms.

In some part, Leeb's approach isn't necessarily designed to gain wealth in absolute terms. After all, buying gold today at $1,000 and continuing to hold it when its price has risen to $2000 is just holding real net worth flat if the cost of living has doubled.

But that isn't necessarily a bad outcome.

Book Review: 'Game Over' by Stephen Leeb

Reading Dr. Leeb's books can make one hope he is wrong, but the real risk is that he is right.

The folks who think that a global "drill baby drill" approach is the only answer to energy shortages miss Dr. Leeb's point on alternative energy. He appears to favor moving to new energy sources because of his conviction that the old sources will become simply too costly and will continue to be controlled by the likes of our favorite Uncles, Vladimir and Hugo.

The confluence of materials shortages and a declining US dollar will be a double whammy not only on the inflation front but on the medium of exchange front. Will the resource rich nations continue indefinitely accepting payment for valuable materials in a currency that seems destined to continue decline in relative value? Perhaps, but perhaps not.

In the short-term, moving from oil to other energy sources involves many tradeoffs and market inefficiencies. It is interesting however, to note that relatively small declines in global demand for oil has had significant impact on market prices during the recession because oil is priced based on the relationship of incremental supply and demand. If alternative energy cut several million barrels a day off worldwide oil demand, would that affect prices? Dr. Leeb would probably say "yes" in the short-term, but in the long-term, lower prices would encourage more developing world consumption and that is where demand growth is.

Since humans (and, more importantly, politicians) live in the short-term, it is easy to see that the short-term effect of lower oil prices would make a move to alternative energy sources appear uneconomic and that a change would be resisted. The more you spend on alternatives, the more you potentially drive down the short-term price of the fuel the alternatives compete with.

It is a complex issue -- the short and long terms both have to be considered simulatneously and that is customarily beyond human capacity.

Why I'm Short Vanguard Natural Resources, Long Linn Energy

Mike had a divorce settlement in which his wife took a huge number of Linn units.


On Apr 23 02:53 AM Freya wrote:

> Andydee: I do not trust the words of Management.
> I have heard similar words followed by "circumstances have changed".
> Actions speak louder than words. It was a glowing pitch but instead
> of going Up after the presentation, it sat there.
>
> I do not like that sort of reaction to good news.
>
> Besides, I can't figure out what Michael C. Linn did with about 1.9
> million shares. His holdings were around 4.2 million at the end of
> Nov. 2008 but even after a stock grant in Feb. of 278K, his holdings
> are listed at 2.3 million shares.
>
> Like I said, actions speak louder than words. This is the universe
> I travel in.

Atlas Energy Resources Merger with Atlas America Seems a Good Move

ATN unitholders could have realized the value of Marcellus without being forced to adding the weight of APL/AHD to their ATN investment as a result of the merger.

Now, instead of distribution of cash, they have to hope that the Cohens can deliver price appreciation instead of cash.

So, Jim, It Is (Has Been) a Depression After All?

Cramer is "the best in the business"? I guess there really is a depression in "the business".

Heads Up on the Dollar Today: The World's Reserve Currency Is Changing

Bobby, the $78 per hour sounds high and probably is, but it it an amalgam of compensation which includes all employment costs, may include allocating vacation and time off pay over actual hours worked, employer FICA, health and disability insurance, retirement accrfuals for pension and healthcare. It adds up pretty fast.

What Happened to 'The Change We Need'?

Everyone thinks they have the answer to how to fix government. They don't -- although they have many good individual ideas.

Do I like more deficits? No. Would I rather the deficits came from domestic spending than tax cuts for the ruling class? Yes.

Do I think that the trillions of dollars and thousands of lives wasted in Iraq to secure an oil source (and what did we think the Iraqis were going to do with their oil, drink it -- they were going to export it anyway). Yes. Stupid beyond belief.

The US is getting poorer because it sends energy dollars overseas, spends trillions on offensive (not defensive) wars, allows its financial mavens to pay themselves from false "profits" while they drive businesses into the ground, and has to import things that could be made domestically and other countries have been foolish to buy US debt to fund this conduct.

We want "free trade" but ultimately free trade has to even income worldwide. If and when that happens, the entire world will be poor.

Humans run things and humans are grossly imperfect and self-aggrandizing.

Atlas Energy: Following the Money

Bob, I don't think a reduction in the distribution is likely to happen unless there is a cash flow reduction. As with most MLPs, DCF is supposed to be distributed to unitholders under the operative agreements (whether LLC or partnership). ATN's "parent", ATLS, relies upon the distributions from its operating offspring (AHD, APL, ATN). ATLS may need the distributions from ATN more than ever due to cash crunch at APL/AHD, so I don't expect to see ATN trimming the distribution if cash flow holds up.

Goldman Sachs Goes Bold! Forecasts $45 Oil

Russia, Iran and Venezuela aren't the only at risk producers.

Mexico has declining production thanks in no small part to Cantarell collapsing, next to nothing going into exploration and a federal government that needs more petro dollars to fund its operations.

Canada conventional production is dropping and at $45/bbl, those bitumen mining operations will be negative cash flow operations.

Canadian Royalty Trusts Will Never Return to Their Former Glory

Mr. Ward, those wonderful "tax pools" are interesting, but some CPAs I talk to think they are worth less to US investors than those investors think. While tax pools may eliminate the Canadian corporate tax for a few years, the dividedns paid to US holders will probably be fully taxable, not return of capital distributions. Why? The tax pools are made up of deferred Canadian tax deductions that would have been previously deducted in a US tax regime. The Canadian corporations do not keep US tax accounting records and thus their distributions will be deemed to be from "earnings and profits" in the US.

Overall a well-written article. If you follow any finance board, you will find die hard CANROY enthusiasts who bluster, rant and attack in spite of facts and trends, so the negative response to your article is predictable. Your patience in responding to comments is commendable -- it is always nice to try to engage in discussion and education, even with an unruly class.

Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole

Actually, the government has many reasons for fearing a meltdown, not least of which is that it has directed individuals to put their retirement money into the stock market.

Plus, every private and public pension plan is invested in the stock market. As the value of plan assets decline, the ability of the retirement plan to meet its obligations is at risk.

Millions of private and public pensions are thus at risk -- private pensions are covered in part by the PBGC (which is itself underfunded); government pensions are the problem of the state and local governmental units and new taxes would be one way to save them -- or reduced benefits.

I suspect that the government has concluded that trillions of dollars could be lost in the markets and that $700 billion is actually cheaper for it (and the citizenry) than trying to figure out how to deal with the lost tax revenue and indigent retirees.

My fear is that we have so many structural problems with government finances and living off of debt that this is just round 1 in a 15 round match. I hope the fighter survives 15 rounds.

Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan

If the US shifted to solar, wind and NG, not only would billions of dollars not go overseas, but millions of jobs would be created in the US, natural resource energy profits that go offshore would be taxed domestically, real property taxes on domestic production would rise (helping state and local governments), international oil prices would drop (maybe Russia's war machine couldn't be paid for so easily after all).

But we'd have to keep oil prices in the US elevated via taxes (like Europe charges) to prevent a creep back in to the oil demand cycle that has brought the US to its knees and will keep it there for decades unless action is taken.