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AplhaFan

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  • Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
    How did you get this information?
    I believe it is not a secret. Could you share the link?
    I may want to get similar info for all other stocks.
    Thanks.
    Apr 14 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga And Workday In Parallel Lives? [View article]
    Sounds like, investing in WDAY is like walking on the edge. You may be the hero or dead. Isn't there any other stock out there so you can invest and feel safe about it? Is it too difficult just to ignore this guy and let him stay by himself? That's what I do.
    Apr 11 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
    I checked the job postings on WDAY's site:
    http://bit.ly/10Gsihr

    What I see is the passion for growth, and this seems to be including some markets in overseas. I do not know how many customers they have outside the US, but this is like fashion. Once it starts to be known, then it spreads exponentially. That is what happened with SAP.

    The reason of the overvalued current price may be depending on this future hopes. And, I would like to think that a company who does not have serious plans on this kind of growth would not open this many positions. In other words, they seem to be getting ready for a world brand in their market segment. At the same time, they may add new products to their portfolio.

    Rather than the current facts, it is the value of the future hopes that sets the price of shares. I think that is the case with WDAY. It is already at the value that might be real 2 years later.

    Besides all these good things, in case of any unexpected bad news like management shake up etc, they will loose a lot. Not really sure where this will go in the near future, but in the long term, it may be a new SAP.
    Apr 7 10:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
    Great! You responded exactly with what I was expecting: A link for a lecture on this. Thanks again.
    Apr 6 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
    I am pretty new to trading options. I could not get the point here. If I do what you said, and let both to expire, then what happens?
    I would think that I would only sell Calls, and forced to cover them on the Expiration Date, if I do not cover them before. No?
    Apr 6 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
    Analyst Ratings for Workday (WDAY)
    http://bit.ly/12stLx0

    Especially among the lastest ratings, I do not see anything that suggests to Sell. I checked Zack's rating as well, that is going upwards in every 30 days. Currently they are in between Buy & Hold, but in 90 days they think it will be a pure Buy.
    Apr 6 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
    Wim, I see your comments almost in every article about WDAY. According to what you said here, if WDAY predicts to make a revenue of 420M and end up with 120M loss, that can be only if they predict to spend 540M. Since you are so much involved with their numbers and other facts, can I ask if you can give us some details about where they are planning to spend 540M? Thanks in advance.

    Another thing that I notice is, when Jefferies upgrades a stock, it usually goes upwards with an outstanding ratio even on the first day. If WDAY could not do this on Friday, I would guess that would be only due to the news on jobs and the drop in the common market. I believe, no matter what the facts are, WDAY will go upwards just to confirm Jefferies, at least for a while. If WDAY does not move in a way Jefferies expects, they will increment their target to $90 per share. Remember my prediction when you read this in the news. :)

    I am completely with you about the speculations planned and implemented behind the closed doors. But, no matter what the facts are, if we act with the same way of the stock, we will win, or otherwise we will lose. Even if thousands of us come together, we cannot stop that monster and make it move down to the price where it deserves to be. Because, only 1 billionaire has thousand times more power than thousands of us. When the case is this, we do not want to imagine a few of those billionaires involved into this.
    Apr 6 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lululemon Can Certainly Recover [View article]
    I know this is not going to be a comparison of apple to apple, but there is still a value of adding this to this discussion.
    When I look at the market caps of some other fashion / sports brands, I cannot understand how LULU can have its current market cap of $9B. Here is what I mean:
    ANF = $ 3.9B
    UA = $ 5.3B
    LTD = $ 12.7B
    TIF = $ 8.67B
    LULU = $ 9.1B
    NKE = $59.5B

    I cannot explain to myself how LULU can have a market cap that is
    more than double of ANF's, near to double of UA's, 75% of LTD's, beating TIF's with 5%.

    I could add more to comparison list. But, here is my point. I believe that stock market gives much more value to a stock, especially to new ones, once some signs for growth are seen. That is the case with LULU. However, this will eventually be adjusted. And the price fall from around $80 to $60 area in the recent weeks indicates that.

    If LULU can continue to remain in this range, I believe that UA has better potential for growth due to their better popularity, better established stores, more variety of products, and the gap that can be filled between UA and NKE.

    There are lot more competitors offering similar products with LULU. My point is LULU will not be able to continue selling at those high prices, therefore their sales will be impacted and their profit margins will fall.
    Mar 27 07:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short The Lemon [View article]
    I have read before that UA is competting with LULU in the yoga clothing market. I know UA offer much more diversified products, like hunting & skiing apparels, shoes, etc. But, when I look at the UA's market cap, I see around $5B, while LULU's is around $9B. How can this be possible. Ins't UA much larger company than LULU? Please contribute if you have solid info about this. Thanks.
    Mar 19 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vera Bradley - Long-Term Growth Story Remains Intact [View article]
    it would be better with some charts.
    Mar 16 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Education On Bridgepoint Education [View article]
    Brian, that is very kind of you.
    I would not mention any specific stock as the market tells which are worth paying attention to. You already mentioned 3 of them. When I go to Google Finance to check for any of those, it brings the other stocks in the same industry at the bottom. What I can see are these: APOL ESI DV APEI CECO COCO STRA LINC LOPE BPI CPLA. So, it is your choice to pick which ones to include in your analysis. I cannot see many articles on these stocks here on Seeking Alpha. That's why I think your article may be appreciated by lots of readers. Thanks again.
    Feb 19 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Education On Bridgepoint Education [View article]
    Do you think you can analyze, for example 5, major stocks in this industry and compare which is better than the other according to their current and potentials for the future?
    Feb 18 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing For-Profit Education Stocks: The Government's Bet On The U.S. Economy [View article]
    I cannot understand how you can ignore the drop of the Strayer Education from $64 to $52 just in 2 days after their own earning announcement, while telling about an increase of 10% of Strayer shares after DV's earnings !!!

    Very poor observation !
    Feb 18 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An IPO Xooming Too High [View article]
    global online money transfer provider ???
    how many countries are there on the globe?
    and what are the countries that you can only send money to?
    without being able to get from the same countries to US !!!
    Feb 17 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick Summary On Why You Should Buy Deckers [View article]
    Let me share my experience with GRPN. I bought some shares when it dropped from $7.50 to $6.50 on Aug 13, 2012. That was 6 months ago. But, I bought only 1,000 shares. Then it continued to drop down to $4.25 area. and I continued to add 1000 share every time it fell another %10 or so. Then it started going up, and I started selling each portion after making some profit of 10% or so. When it dropped about 10% again, I bought another 1000 shares and sold whenever I made 10% profit. As all of you might know, GRPN came down to $2.76 and started going up since then, and I started closing my shares in lots of 1000 shares with about 10% profit for each lot. My strategy worked well.

    If I had opened a position with 10,000 shares at the beginning, I would be locked and would not be able to take the advantage of buying cheaper. I know this is no secret strategy for most of you. But, again as all of you know, emotions override the brain's strategy many times.

    DECK is a similar stock. I bought it at $39 first, then it came down. I added more but with keeping some deposits for buying another lot in case it drops more, and it did. Then, it started going up, and I sold a lot, then sold another, and it continued to bounce, and I continued to buy and sell, and buy and sell. It worked very well far.

    My whole point is when I act too greedy, I pay the cost of it. When I become calm and patient, I am rewarded after some time. Now, I am on NFLX. We'll see how it goes.
    Feb 15 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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137 Comments
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