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AplhaFan

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  • Herbalife Is A Short - Goodwill Hunting [View article]
    Author says the pyramid of HLF will fall someday, but he should notice that he is building his pyramid of readers here :))

    Great article of presenting his thesis and believes. I do not have much to add, but at least I can say this. Any stock in the market will go up and down, and then up again, and down again, either with larger moves or smaller moves.

    Even if HLF could say that they would double the size of their business in the next 12 month, and as a result of that if their stock doubles immediately, it will not be able stay there for the next 12 months. If that could happen, the stock should not have been moving from $38 down to $28 and now back to $45 etc just in the last 2 weeks.

    My bottom line will be that there will always be an opportunity for long or short investment, if you can resist until you make some profit, unless you open the long position at the top, or short position at the bottom. The current price may go upto $70 as in the back days, or got down to below $10, just as a possibility. Please do not say this is impossible as if you never heard of Enron or Lehman Brothers.
    Jan 17 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Appreciates After Announcing A New Plan [View article]
    Although referring to book values is quite reasonable, I do not see the market paying attention to book values. If that was the case, all stocks must have been at their book values. Instead, market reacts according to the news that offers some hopes for future and that reaction occurs more than necessary. Although GNW may move higher than today's value, I would guess it will drop to its previous levels before it goes higher. This is not an attempt to have the value go down, but rather it is sharing my observation of the common market moves with an intention to help others to take advantages at these levels, and re-enter later at lower prices. That's what I do for myself.

    In this while, pay attention to other stocks like RDN, MTG, or similar ones that are moving in the same direction with GNW in common. Either GNW will slow down, or those two will move faster to catch the same levels of changes in the future.
    Jan 16 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Covering: An Update [View article]
    if the market price may not be $499.99, what can be? $399 ?!?!?!
    Jan 16 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Performing Stocks Since Apple Peak [View article]
    I agree with you. Very fair and true comment.
    Jan 16 03:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Best Buy Really Your Best Buy? [View article]
    You want to know companies with no competition?
    Maybe not any more, but they were the only choice in the past:
    APPL, NFLX, GMCR, PCLN, and even BBY.
    I cannot think of an example that is still alone in its industry, but I am sure some other readers can help with some.
    Jan 15 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
    Very well said: The rules of the game has changed.
    Jan 14 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon: Buy, Sell Or Hold [View article]
    George,

    Thanks for your article. Good compilation of important recent news about Groupon. However, you say these news may not be sufficient. That's why you guess the stock may go down to $4. To be honest, I do not get this relation. Instead, I would expect to hear something like hold, or sell some of the GRPN stock, instead of entire position. Would you like to add more details for this part, or did I not catch those points in the article itself?

    I bought the stock part by part during its fall from $6.50 to $2.75. When it fell 50 cents, I added to my position. When it went 50 cents up and I made profit for a portion, I sold that portion, and when it went down again, I added the same portion back again. Yes, I sold some of my positions when it was $3, $3.50, $4, etc, but never felt sorry, as I was able to buy back at $3.80, the positions I sold at $4.20, and so on. If what you guess becomes true, that will mean, I will be able to buy the same shares back at $4 that I sold before at $4.50 and above. I am not trying to make 100% profit over any investment. Instead I prefer to make 10% profit for 10 times, and I believe this opportunity is more likely repat rather than 1 time profit of 100%. Like you said, this type of increase may not happen again.

    I just say I have been lucky for the big return from $2.64 upto $5.35. I prepared myself for chances of going upto $10, and down to $4, and for every up and down in between. That may be 12 month strategy for now, or longer than that. I trust that someday GRPN will be the company of the future just because of seeing the passion for success in their management.

    When you wrote your article, we got another takeover news here on SeekingAlpha. If a company is not preapring for the future, why should they waste their money for unnecessary takeovers? Depending on those news, I believe this company will make its investors happy.
    Jan 13 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
    Can I ask a question to both of you?

    Just let me know how much you invested in GRPN, BBY, FSLR, JCP etc?

    Then we can talk about your desire to be a candidate for the portion of Buffett's success.
    Jan 13 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Might Be Time To Cash In On The Double In Genworth Shares [View article]
    Hi,

    I have been watching the same stocks for a long while, with some breaks in watching since 2007 or so. They are in the same segment of industry, with few differences in some ways. They move in the same direction according to the same news. HIG is part of this group, in my opinion, and there may be other to add to the same group.

    What I see now is, MET is behind in the race of moving higher. If LNC is at $28 per share, MET should be above $40, but it is around $36. If LNC moves up above $30, that is only %10 more than its current value, I believe GNW will be above $10 or even $12-13 area. and MET may go up to $45-48 area. These numbers can be real when S&P goes near to 1600 which is also %10 above than its current value. This is likely to happen this year according to some experts, but a crash like 40% is being talked as well by some other experts. So, be very careful about the likely crash.

    Their all time highs before the 2008 crash may not come back again at all. So, if we look at their 5-year history, LNC was able to go up to $32, while MET was at $48, GNW was $19 and HIG was at $30. That is my comparison for the chances of moving apart from each other among those 4.

    Also keep in mind that when GNW announces that they are ready for Australian IPO, it will make its best fly in a long time in the recent months and years.
    Jan 12 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
    So, do you all guys only think that whatever Buffet followed for his unique success in investing, you can do the same just by following the same strategy, not matter what the market conditions are ??? Here is another option for you then. You know how Michael Jackson became the king of pop, and how Michael Jordan became the king of basketball, and so on. Is there anyone there who think he can become half successful like those two?

    My point is that there are some things that are special to only some people with special skills. Buffet is that man with special skills in investing. There will be some others who will be close to his success, but for the rest of us, that world is too far from us.

    Instead, plan to go to moon before you want to be half successful as Buffet. It will be easier.
    Jan 12 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Has Strong Price Momentum, Is Fundamentally Undervalued [View article]
    What I think is GNW is an easily speculative stock. It moves down or up more than it should. Like it went down to $4 while all other insurance stock were not moving that much, now it went up again while all the other insurance stocks were moving slower.

    I agree with Hawkeye's article. He is saying that before GNW can go higher, it will give back some of its recent rapid increase.

    I disagree with this article where the book values are mentioned and the stock prices are expected to increase until the two get equal. If the markets were running according to this rule, there would be no stock moving to its half price in a week or month, and no stock moving to its double price in a very short time.

    Although the actual values of the stocks given in this article have been quite the same during the 12 month of 2012, how do you want to explain their price movements that look like a V or W chart?

    Hawkeye is simply saying GNW may come back to $7 area before it can go higher, and he seems that he wrote his article before the %4-6 decrease on Jan 8th. His thesis was confirmed immediately by pointing a move to that price area.

    If your opinion is better than the opinion of an analyst that works for Credit Suise, why don't you get his job, instead of writing articles here for pennies or fun?

    Or let me put it this way: If the opinion in an article counts more than the rating of an analyst, my comment should count more than your article too.
    Jan 9 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Might Be Time To Cash In On The Double In Genworth Shares [View article]
    Did you not read the Disclosure at the end, or do you not believe he is telling the truth?
    Jan 8 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooper Tires: A Quick Glance At 2 Bonds [View article]
    The author starts with referring to his previous article, that I read before. He discussed the details of CTB. Then, in this article, he is discussing the 2 bonds only because they are directly related to CTB. So, why do think he is making that connection? To give you a thought of buying CTB or not thinking it at all?
    Jan 7 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooper Tires: A Quick Glance At 2 Bonds [View article]
    Why do you keep pumping this stock?
    there are tons of better options in the market.
    How long do you think it will take to read a news saying that insiders are selling?
    The stock price is around its all time highs.
    Jan 7 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modeling The Value Of Cooper Tire [View article]
    Especially 2 points took my attention:

    1. The valuation of the 2 companies
    2. The amount of fall in the stock prices in Apr-May of 2011.

    Cooper may have a very bright future, but what matters to me is the chances of returning higher profit for my investment between those two stocks during the coming months and 2013. I cannot see how Cooper can become as valuable as 50% of Goodyear. Like the author said, GT does everything possible in the tire industry. GT is established with multiple brands almost everywhere in the world. I guess whoever owns a car is aware of Goodyear. On the other hand, If I was not interested in stocks, I would not even know about a tire called Cooper. I assume there are probably many more customers who are not aware of them yet. If GT takes CTB as its competitor, GT can run a few extra sale events, and let CTB die on its own. Only one advantage for CTB may be their cheaper prices. But, you get what you pay, nothing changes. Personally I prefer to buy better tire for higher price and be on the safer side. Remember the number of tires sold at Walmart, Sams club, Sears and other similar stores. Goodyear is their number one tire.

    One of these two will happen eventually. If market continues to go up, GT will return higher profit to investors than CTB. That chart for stock prices cannot continue with the gap between CTB and GT getting larger. On the other hand, as the nature of the markets, this bull run will eventually come to an end, and a bear market will come, no matter if we like it or not. Some experts already started talking about the possibility of a deep fall this year. Fiscal Cliff is not over yet. What happened on Jan 1st was just taking a pain reliever that will be good only for a month or two. The huge debt of $16 Billion is still there and it will continue to increase every year.

    Also, pay attention to the fall in the stock prices that started in 2011 Apr-May. Look at who fell more than the other. Whoever goes up faster will come down faster too. Whoever invests in CTB, I suggest them to be ready for an instant fall at any time. I would be very very cautious. If Ihad long CTB position, I would sell all of it after a major increase like 10-20% on a single day.

    One last note about GT's price history. At one point before 2008 GT reached a price of $37. Now, all of us know where it has been in the last 2 years.
    Jan 6 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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