Think about an investor who lost everything he had. Some investors like this will die and will not be able to come back and become a winner. But, you heard some of them succeeded in staying alive with very little cash and after a while they were back in investing, with hope and patience, they became winners again.
I see RIM similar with an investor who lost almost everything they had, but they are still alive. If a company was able to make a smart phone, and a tablet once in the past, and before everyone else, I believe they will make their better versions again, and be able to compete in this market and become leader again.
Think of Apple's last 10 years. They were always behind Microsoft and not known enough. But, all of a sudden the winds changed for the benefits of Apple.
This is going to happen for RIM as well. But, I cannot predict only when. I am just an individual, not a certified or licensed analyst who can investigate this company close enough.
Take RIM like a new company in the first year of their business. More than increasing their revenue, they will invest in attracting new customers. I see RIM in a similar situation. They are at a new re-beginning.
Rather than calling this case a Red flag, and preferring to stay away from TSLA, I prefer to take this is an innocent mistake, if it is defined as a mistake, and be part of TSLA. I will not consider this was a pre-made scenario that must have been kept as a secret from public and reveal it after the stock rises enough to take some advantages for TESLA.
I believe Elon Musk is pretty much aware of where he is placed by public and investors. He is holding the golden key for more profits than today. He will not hand over the key to someone else before he extracts everything possible. If he makes a mistake, I believe he will honestly admit that and apologize and pay the cost in terms of losing some value of stock. But, later he will gain back multiple times of that cost.
I prefer to count the number of green flags and go with Elon Musk. There is certainly a bright future. Every drop is an opportunity for more and cheaper buy. Just be cautious and keep some cash for any downs.
Groupon Finally Lands On Planet Earth [View article]
If GRPN did it once, I believe they will do it again. Once they convinced the entire public for the $20 value of their stock. and I am sure they will be above $5 again, if not above $10, some day. This market is full with genius people of how to speculate a stock either way and GRPN is offering a big opportunity upwards, no matter what the facts sheet says. and I am a buyer at $2.76 or around, without needing to wait for lower price. If I lose, how much can I lose? But, if I win, I believe it will be more rewarding than the risk of losing.
What I see is the passion for growth, and this seems to be including some markets in overseas. I do not know how many customers they have outside the US, but this is like fashion. Once it starts to be known, then it spreads exponentially. That is what happened with SAP.
The reason of the overvalued current price may be depending on this future hopes. And, I would like to think that a company who does not have serious plans on this kind of growth would not open this many positions. In other words, they seem to be getting ready for a world brand in their market segment. At the same time, they may add new products to their portfolio.
Rather than the current facts, it is the value of the future hopes that sets the price of shares. I think that is the case with WDAY. It is already at the value that might be real 2 years later.
Besides all these good things, in case of any unexpected bad news like management shake up etc, they will loose a lot. Not really sure where this will go in the near future, but in the long term, it may be a new SAP.
Why Lululemon Can Certainly Recover [View article]
I know this is not going to be a comparison of apple to apple, but there is still a value of adding this to this discussion. When I look at the market caps of some other fashion / sports brands, I cannot understand how LULU can have its current market cap of $9B. Here is what I mean: ANF = $ 3.9B UA = $ 5.3B LTD = $ 12.7B TIF = $ 8.67B LULU = $ 9.1B NKE = $59.5B
I cannot explain to myself how LULU can have a market cap that is more than double of ANF's, near to double of UA's, 75% of LTD's, beating TIF's with 5%.
I could add more to comparison list. But, here is my point. I believe that stock market gives much more value to a stock, especially to new ones, once some signs for growth are seen. That is the case with LULU. However, this will eventually be adjusted. And the price fall from around $80 to $60 area in the recent weeks indicates that.
If LULU can continue to remain in this range, I believe that UA has better potential for growth due to their better popularity, better established stores, more variety of products, and the gap that can be filled between UA and NKE.
There are lot more competitors offering similar products with LULU. My point is LULU will not be able to continue selling at those high prices, therefore their sales will be impacted and their profit margins will fall.
An Education On Bridgepoint Education [View article]
Brian, that is very kind of you. I would not mention any specific stock as the market tells which are worth paying attention to. You already mentioned 3 of them. When I go to Google Finance to check for any of those, it brings the other stocks in the same industry at the bottom. What I can see are these: APOL ESI DV APEI CECO COCO STRA LINC LOPE BPI CPLA. So, it is your choice to pick which ones to include in your analysis. I cannot see many articles on these stocks here on Seeking Alpha. That's why I think your article may be appreciated by lots of readers. Thanks again.
Playing For-Profit Education Stocks: The Government's Bet On The U.S. Economy [View article]
I cannot understand how you can ignore the drop of the Strayer Education from $64 to $52 just in 2 days after their own earning announcement, while telling about an increase of 10% of Strayer shares after DV's earnings !!!
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
Look at the history of NFLX price chart. It was $102 on Jul 10, 2010. and went up to $295 in 12 months, on Jul 2, 2011. and then from $295 down to $60 in 4 months only, until Nov 25, 2011. Then it spent another 11 month with ups and downs, but it was able to go upto $120 then then down to $60s. etc.
And its latest momentum started again on Oct 1, 2012 going up and up and up, either inch by inch, or somedays foot by foot, with some little downs, but eventually covering with better ups.
When NFLX was at $295, it was alone in the market. Now, what is pushing it again to the same highs maybe the hopes of new opportunities in international sales. I believe it will not see a serious competition outside the US.
I am among the believers in shorting. However, be prepared to resist for 16 months, or hopefully shorter, in case if it may go up to $300 again. What are you going to do, if this stock holds between $150-$200 range for 3 months, or holds above $200 for 6 to 12 months? Think about every possibility.
For those entry points, you may need to wait forever. If tiger global bought almost 10% of the shares, and other 2 big hedge funds followed them with similar big purchases, they must know some facts that public does not know yet, and they must have really strong hopes based on some real expectations from GRPN. Otherwise, they would not be stupid to waste their investments for nothing.
If they had bought those shares today and the stock would double the next day or the next week, that would be a good SEC investigation due to insider trading. I do not think they will let themselves fall in such a stupid trap. That's why I think those big share holders entered into those positions much earlier to avoid any suspicions against their purchases. I think GRPN will move around $4 for a while until the winds stop and will go up and up in long term after that. Did you not read that they just had a new agreement for selling MBL products, and they opened a new store in Hong Kong. How would you expect these moves from a company that is going to an end? If this management was able to create a business like this from nothing just in 4 years, I believe they can do more with lot more capital resources.
I think most people are still looking at GRPN just as a coupon company. They used that business to build a huge member and vendor base. Now, it is time to use that potential to produce some real profit.
Best Performing Stocks Since Apple Peak [View article]
Cramer's Mad Money - The Next Salesforce.com (10/8/12) [View article]
and Cramer is a person that I think is not worth the attention.
Time To Short Research In Motion [View article]
I see RIM similar with an investor who lost almost everything they had, but they are still alive. If a company was able to make a smart phone, and a tablet once in the past, and before everyone else, I believe they will make their better versions again, and be able to compete in this market and become leader again.
Think of Apple's last 10 years. They were always behind Microsoft and not known enough. But, all of a sudden the winds changed for the benefits of Apple.
This is going to happen for RIM as well. But, I cannot predict only when. I am just an individual, not a certified or licensed analyst who can investigate this company close enough.
Hope this helps your thinking about RIM.
Time To Short Research In Motion [View article]
Tesla's First Red Flag [View article]
I believe Elon Musk is pretty much aware of where he is placed by public and investors. He is holding the golden key for more profits than today. He will not hand over the key to someone else before he extracts everything possible. If he makes a mistake, I believe he will honestly admit that and apologize and pay the cost in terms of losing some value of stock. But, later he will gain back multiple times of that cost.
I prefer to count the number of green flags and go with Elon Musk. There is certainly a bright future. Every drop is an opportunity for more and cheaper buy. Just be cautious and keep some cash for any downs.
S&P 500 Most Heavily Shorted Stocks [View article]
Should we consider taking a long or short position in FSLR, and in BIG?
Any experience from the past will be appreciated.
Groupon Finally Lands On Planet Earth [View article]
and I am a buyer at $2.76 or around, without needing to wait for lower price. If I lose, how much can I lose? But, if I win, I believe it will be more rewarding than the risk of losing.
Verizon Wireless: The Best Way To Invest In The iPhone 5 Release [View article]
It has the most room to fall down.
Workday's Bubble Is About To Pop [View article]
http://bit.ly/10Gsihr
What I see is the passion for growth, and this seems to be including some markets in overseas. I do not know how many customers they have outside the US, but this is like fashion. Once it starts to be known, then it spreads exponentially. That is what happened with SAP.
The reason of the overvalued current price may be depending on this future hopes. And, I would like to think that a company who does not have serious plans on this kind of growth would not open this many positions. In other words, they seem to be getting ready for a world brand in their market segment. At the same time, they may add new products to their portfolio.
Rather than the current facts, it is the value of the future hopes that sets the price of shares. I think that is the case with WDAY. It is already at the value that might be real 2 years later.
Besides all these good things, in case of any unexpected bad news like management shake up etc, they will loose a lot. Not really sure where this will go in the near future, but in the long term, it may be a new SAP.
Why Lululemon Can Certainly Recover [View article]
When I look at the market caps of some other fashion / sports brands, I cannot understand how LULU can have its current market cap of $9B. Here is what I mean:
ANF = $ 3.9B
UA = $ 5.3B
LTD = $ 12.7B
TIF = $ 8.67B
LULU = $ 9.1B
NKE = $59.5B
I cannot explain to myself how LULU can have a market cap that is
more than double of ANF's, near to double of UA's, 75% of LTD's, beating TIF's with 5%.
I could add more to comparison list. But, here is my point. I believe that stock market gives much more value to a stock, especially to new ones, once some signs for growth are seen. That is the case with LULU. However, this will eventually be adjusted. And the price fall from around $80 to $60 area in the recent weeks indicates that.
If LULU can continue to remain in this range, I believe that UA has better potential for growth due to their better popularity, better established stores, more variety of products, and the gap that can be filled between UA and NKE.
There are lot more competitors offering similar products with LULU. My point is LULU will not be able to continue selling at those high prices, therefore their sales will be impacted and their profit margins will fall.
An Education On Bridgepoint Education [View article]
I would not mention any specific stock as the market tells which are worth paying attention to. You already mentioned 3 of them. When I go to Google Finance to check for any of those, it brings the other stocks in the same industry at the bottom. What I can see are these: APOL ESI DV APEI CECO COCO STRA LINC LOPE BPI CPLA. So, it is your choice to pick which ones to include in your analysis. I cannot see many articles on these stocks here on Seeking Alpha. That's why I think your article may be appreciated by lots of readers. Thanks again.
Playing For-Profit Education Stocks: The Government's Bet On The U.S. Economy [View article]
Very poor observation !
A Pop Then A Drop For The Great Netflix Stock [View article]
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
and went up to $295 in 12 months, on Jul 2, 2011.
and then from $295 down to $60 in 4 months only, until Nov 25, 2011.
Then it spent another 11 month with ups and downs, but it was able to go upto $120 then then down to $60s. etc.
And its latest momentum started again on Oct 1, 2012 going up and up and up, either inch by inch, or somedays foot by foot, with some little downs, but eventually covering with better ups.
When NFLX was at $295, it was alone in the market. Now, what is pushing it again to the same highs maybe the hopes of new opportunities in international sales. I believe it will not see a serious competition outside the US.
I am among the believers in shorting. However, be prepared to resist for 16 months, or hopefully shorter, in case if it may go up to $300 again. What are you going to do, if this stock holds between $150-$200 range for 3 months, or holds above $200 for 6 to 12 months? Think about every possibility.
Possible Entry Points For Groupon [View article]
If tiger global bought almost 10% of the shares, and other 2 big hedge funds followed them with similar big purchases, they must know some facts that public does not know yet, and they must have really strong hopes based on some real expectations from GRPN. Otherwise, they would not be stupid to waste their investments for nothing.
If they had bought those shares today and the stock would double the next day or the next week, that would be a good SEC investigation due to insider trading. I do not think they will let themselves fall in such a stupid trap. That's why I think those big share holders entered into those positions much earlier to avoid any suspicions against their purchases. I think GRPN will move around $4 for a while until the winds stop and will go up and up in long term after that.
Did you not read that they just had a new agreement for selling MBL products, and they opened a new store in Hong Kong. How would you expect these moves from a company that is going to an end?
If this management was able to create a business like this from nothing just in 4 years, I believe they can do more with lot more capital resources.
I think most people are still looking at GRPN just as a coupon company. They used that business to build a huge member and vendor base. Now, it is time to use that potential to produce some real profit.