Still Laughing's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/219134/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/82993-congress-love-affair-with-convenient-solutions?source=feed#comment-195012 195012 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 03:00:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79986-alt-energy-and-trading-green?source=feed#comment-195009 195009
Green energy investment comes from the belief that if the science can catch up, you can take an abundant, almost unlimited resource (like sunlight) and sell the energy back at an unbelievably high profit because your COGS will be substantially less than a commodity based energy source.

I think the solar panel discussion is funny only because it rests on the assumption that no matter what we do, the technology can only be THIS efficient.

And while it may be true that green energy can only be funded through government subsidies, it may very well be true that private investors simply will not shoulder the risk involve in capitalization of a new technology of that magnitude. This is not a defect of the concept or a problem with the profit potential, rather it is simply something more fundamental like a Sharpe ratio decision. ]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 02:38:59 -0400
Green energy investment comes from the belief that if the science can catch up, you can take an abundant, almost unlimited resource (like sunlight) and sell the energy back at an unbelievably high profit because your COGS will be substantially less than a commodity based energy source.

I think the solar panel discussion is funny only because it rests on the assumption that no matter what we do, the technology can only be THIS efficient.

And while it may be true that green energy can only be funded through government subsidies, it may very well be true that private investors simply will not shoulder the risk involve in capitalization of a new technology of that magnitude. This is not a defect of the concept or a problem with the profit potential, rather it is simply something more fundamental like a Sharpe ratio decision. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82990-kling-s-oil-speculation-question?source=feed#comment-195007 195007
I think there are two groups of people who are calling the high price speculation: those that want it to be because it's just so expensive and those that realize that the high price invites substitution. In other words, the very existence of the high price is why the price will crash. I think it's also why even executives in oil producing companies are starting to make divergent statements about oil prices. There are those that want to reap the short term profit (so they say, "the price will go up to xxx"), and those that realize a substitution scenario would have a far greater and lasting negative impact on their firms (and they say "we're supplying more than the price would suggest" in an attempt to drive the price down.)]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 02:26:00 -0400
I think there are two groups of people who are calling the high price speculation: those that want it to be because it's just so expensive and those that realize that the high price invites substitution. In other words, the very existence of the high price is why the price will crash. I think it's also why even executives in oil producing companies are starting to make divergent statements about oil prices. There are those that want to reap the short term profit (so they say, "the price will go up to xxx"), and those that realize a substitution scenario would have a far greater and lasting negative impact on their firms (and they say "we're supplying more than the price would suggest" in an attempt to drive the price down.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82986-so-you-think-oils-expensive-now?source=feed#comment-194998 194998
So many people are trying to say that it's high because supply is dwindling, but these are futures that are being traded and not gas which means they expect the price to continue to increase. However, how can the price continue to increase when it is heading past the point of being more expensive than a substitute energy and the research cost to develop it. It's like half of Wall Street was only paying attention in economics class to a basic supply and demand curve and missed the opportunity cost and substitute good lectures. The tragedy is that unlike other "bubbles", energy behaves like a tax and and the true cost of speculation isn't the gas high price but the slowing overall slowing of global GDP.]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 02:05:07 -0400
So many people are trying to say that it's high because supply is dwindling, but these are futures that are being traded and not gas which means they expect the price to continue to increase. However, how can the price continue to increase when it is heading past the point of being more expensive than a substitute energy and the research cost to develop it. It's like half of Wall Street was only paying attention in economics class to a basic supply and demand curve and missed the opportunity cost and substitute good lectures. The tragedy is that unlike other "bubbles", energy behaves like a tax and and the true cost of speculation isn't the gas high price but the slowing overall slowing of global GDP.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82729-oil-inventories-report-full-of-surprises?source=feed#comment-194996 194996 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 01:53:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82360-bye-bye-oil-bubble?source=feed#comment-194993 194993 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 01:41:19 -0400