PeakOiler's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/219471/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160450-there-s-no-shortage-of-those-who-want-to-see-the-dollar-go-lower?source=feed#comment-667524 667524
A weak USD simply fortifies the vicious circle of economic collapse for the USA. And if the USA continues this race to the bottom, the rest of the world will follow automatically, because the USA has been the consumer engine for all exporting countries.

Think of a country's currency as the stock of the country. The lower that currency sinks the lower the economy goes.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:18:57 -0400
A weak USD simply fortifies the vicious circle of economic collapse for the USA. And if the USA continues this race to the bottom, the rest of the world will follow automatically, because the USA has been the consumer engine for all exporting countries.

Think of a country's currency as the stock of the country. The lower that currency sinks the lower the economy goes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140019-can-traditional-print-newspapers-survive-creative-destruction?source=feed#comment-521036 521036
I don't know how anyone can justify the selfishness of cutting down trees, expending vast amounts of fossil fuels in the process of cutting, pulping, paper rolling, and delivery of an individual newspaper. Clearly these processes have no future in the delivery of digital information.]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 09:24:48 -0400
I don't know how anyone can justify the selfishness of cutting down trees, expending vast amounts of fossil fuels in the process of cutting, pulping, paper rolling, and delivery of an individual newspaper. Clearly these processes have no future in the delivery of digital information.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134302-international-bancshares-the-best-operated-bank-or-a-bank-with-something-to-hide?source=feed#comment-486999 486999 Sat, 02 May 2009 22:09:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134652-m3-the-money-supply-sure-doesn-t-look-like-deflation?source=feed#comment-486974 486974
So those expecting inflation from this putative money printing are completely wrong. Inflation is dead for many years to come, and the great danger is continuing deflation as occurred in the lost decade in Japan. An enormous amount of (credit) money has gone to money heaven and cannot be replaced until another credit boom occurs. The Fed merely plants seeds for bubbles to grow over time, and right now they are only planting seeds to get the banking system on a solid footing.

Inflation is dead for at least another decade.
]]> Sat, 02 May 2009 21:44:20 -0400
So those expecting inflation from this putative money printing are completely wrong. Inflation is dead for many years to come, and the great danger is continuing deflation as occurred in the lost decade in Japan. An enormous amount of (credit) money has gone to money heaven and cannot be replaced until another credit boom occurs. The Fed merely plants seeds for bubbles to grow over time, and right now they are only planting seeds to get the banking system on a solid footing.

Inflation is dead for at least another decade.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134490-procera-networks-could-climb-to-2-50-without-too-much-difficulty?source=feed#comment-486627 486627 Sat, 02 May 2009 11:57:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134641-rich-pzena-a-working-man-s-buffett?source=feed#comment-486615 486615 Sat, 02 May 2009 11:42:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132831-why-amcon-could-be-valued-at-100-per-share?source=feed#comment-477463 477463
I will give you this, on a cash flow basis the company is pure gold, the stock trading at less than two times leveraged free cash flow. The best investors look at the cash generated by the business, and DIT has been a cash machine.

]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 22:36:01 -0400
I will give you this, on a cash flow basis the company is pure gold, the stock trading at less than two times leveraged free cash flow. The best investors look at the cash generated by the business, and DIT has been a cash machine.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130590-observations-on-the-total-u-s-debt?source=feed#comment-461106 461106
And dorv562 in comments above (his first) is utter rubbish. The US has more oil than anyone else? Not even close. Global warming a hoax? Right, peer reviewed science is useless according to dorv. "Those politicians calling themselves Democrats are so obsessed with unequally portioned wealth they will destroy our manufacturing and wealth creation and we will all be equally poor ". My friend, give your head a shake. Bush and his Republican friends have destroyed the world's economies all by themselves, Democrats need not apply. The richest Democrats understand that the 'every man for himself' policies of Republicans is a race to the bottom, leading to a class system that would put the US among the worst places in the world to live. Democrats know that the strength of the country is dependent on the health and welfare of the massive middle class, and the rich cannot prosper without a strong base.

As the last 20 years has demonstrated, the US will continue its collapse until the country brings forth a universal health care system. It can't compete in the world where every other developed nation has the safety net of health care and well funded pension system.

]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 23:45:50 -0400
And dorv562 in comments above (his first) is utter rubbish. The US has more oil than anyone else? Not even close. Global warming a hoax? Right, peer reviewed science is useless according to dorv. "Those politicians calling themselves Democrats are so obsessed with unequally portioned wealth they will destroy our manufacturing and wealth creation and we will all be equally poor ". My friend, give your head a shake. Bush and his Republican friends have destroyed the world's economies all by themselves, Democrats need not apply. The richest Democrats understand that the 'every man for himself' policies of Republicans is a race to the bottom, leading to a class system that would put the US among the worst places in the world to live. Democrats know that the strength of the country is dependent on the health and welfare of the massive middle class, and the rich cannot prosper without a strong base.

As the last 20 years has demonstrated, the US will continue its collapse until the country brings forth a universal health care system. It can't compete in the world where every other developed nation has the safety net of health care and well funded pension system.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21575?source=feed#comment-459564 459564

On Apr 10 04:24 PM Smegma wrote:

> There you go again, Comrade Roubini.
>
> The US consumer is the greatest consumer in the world. Our appetite
> for consumption will remain at the healthy levels seen in the middle
> of the decade. And it will be supported by growing credit, which
> will continue to be supplied (and in ever-growing quantities) by
> the Chinese and others. (The recent report showing declining consumer
> credit is a lagging indicator.)
>
> US bonds are rated Triple-A, our economy is headed for an "I"-shaped
> recovery, and US deficit and debt levels are forecasted by the administration
> to be halved in less than four years. Further, the stock market has
> proven that investors are long on America. Why in the world would
> China or anyone else think twice about loaning us as much as we want?
>
>
> Roubini and his terrorist-loving confederates should move to Iran.]]> Fri, 10 Apr 2009 22:36:58 -0400

On Apr 10 04:24 PM Smegma wrote:

> There you go again, Comrade Roubini.
>
> The US consumer is the greatest consumer in the world. Our appetite
> for consumption will remain at the healthy levels seen in the middle
> of the decade. And it will be supported by growing credit, which
> will continue to be supplied (and in ever-growing quantities) by
> the Chinese and others. (The recent report showing declining consumer
> credit is a lagging indicator.)
>
> US bonds are rated Triple-A, our economy is headed for an "I"-shaped
> recovery, and US deficit and debt levels are forecasted by the administration
> to be halved in less than four years. Further, the stock market has
> proven that investors are long on America. Why in the world would
> China or anyone else think twice about loaning us as much as we want?
>
>
> Roubini and his terrorist-loving confederates should move to Iran.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127289-why-i-think-paul-krugman-is-wrong?source=feed#comment-436318 436318
As you live, so you judge. Get some help.]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 08:50:15 -0400
As you live, so you judge. Get some help.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125624-seabridge-s-growth-at-mitchell-deposit-provides-promising-opportunity?source=feed#comment-433611 433611
I expect Seabridge to keep touting this goat range so da boyz can unload their free shares.

Well written and presented article however, even if it is promotional.]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:29:44 -0400
I expect Seabridge to keep touting this goat range so da boyz can unload their free shares.

Well written and presented article however, even if it is promotional.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125563-greenspan-yet-again-blames-others-for-housing-bubble?source=feed#comment-422978 422978

"The solutions for the financial-market failures revealed by the crisis are higher capital requirements and a wider prosecution of fraud -- not increased micromanagement by government entities."

Trouble is, he alone, as Fed head, had responsibility for setting higher capital requirements, and for ferreting out fraud. And he failed to act even though he recognized the problem.

Sir Alan will never admit it, but he's become a joke. Perhaps the Queen should rescind his knighthood, then he may understand his role in the world's financial collapse.







]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 09:31:58 -0400

"The solutions for the financial-market failures revealed by the crisis are higher capital requirements and a wider prosecution of fraud -- not increased micromanagement by government entities."

Trouble is, he alone, as Fed head, had responsibility for setting higher capital requirements, and for ferreting out fraud. And he failed to act even though he recognized the problem.

Sir Alan will never admit it, but he's become a joke. Perhaps the Queen should rescind his knighthood, then he may understand his role in the world's financial collapse.







]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124658-has-the-u-s-layoff-trend-turned?source=feed#comment-417606 417606
Like, why bother.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 22:58:38 -0500
Like, why bother.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122502-stocks-are-cheap-a-response-to-tim-knight?source=feed#comment-403719 403719
You are right to be trading, even day-trading here. But I agree with you that trading truly cheap stocks with great balance sheets is the way to go.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:32:46 -0500
You are right to be trading, even day-trading here. But I agree with you that trading truly cheap stocks with great balance sheets is the way to go.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121168-do-not-trust-this-market?source=feed#comment-396198 396198
As for gold, well it appears that gold is about to jump the shark today ($1000 USD), and you know how the Fonz show went after that episode. You won't get a better shorting opportunity than today, Friday Feb. 20th.]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 07:40:57 -0500
As for gold, well it appears that gold is about to jump the shark today ($1000 USD), and you know how the Fonz show went after that episode. You won't get a better shorting opportunity than today, Friday Feb. 20th.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119077-the-tipping-point-stimulus-needs-credibility?source=feed#comment-379902 379902
www.policyarchive.org/...

www.time.com/time/maga...

www.realclearpolitics....

www.cbpp.org/7-18-08ta...

www.cbpp.org/3-8-06tax...

www.washingtonpost.com...


On Feb 07 09:41 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

This may be too late in the comment stream to get a wise reading, but I have been wondering if anyone has ever done research on how much tax cuts contributed to past expansions and how much the accompanying deficits have "stimulated". Have government deficits have always
increased after tax cuts? I know that tax revenues have increased in years following tax cuts, but how much have tax revenues increased in years not following tax cuts? ]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 11:23:18 -0500
www.policyarchive.org/...

www.time.com/time/maga...

www.realclearpolitics....

www.cbpp.org/7-18-08ta...

www.cbpp.org/3-8-06tax...

www.washingtonpost.com...


On Feb 07 09:41 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

This may be too late in the comment stream to get a wise reading, but I have been wondering if anyone has ever done research on how much tax cuts contributed to past expansions and how much the accompanying deficits have "stimulated". Have government deficits have always
increased after tax cuts? I know that tax revenues have increased in years following tax cuts, but how much have tax revenues increased in years not following tax cuts? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119077-the-tipping-point-stimulus-needs-credibility?source=feed#comment-379892 379892 On Feb 06 06:55 PM betweenthenumbers wrote:

"We have a great example of this exact situation: Japan of the last three decades. First they built a great bubble, just like we did, and rode it way down as the market plummeted. Zero percent interest rates followed, "quantitative easing", bank failures, and pretty
much a shot-by-shot remake of US 2007-present. They had the same "brilliant" "obvious" solution as we are trying as they stimulated like crazy, ran huge government deficits, and used "make work" and tax cut measures year after year. "

Comparing the Japanese experience to what is being proposed today is nonsense. Japan literally built roads and bridges to nowhere for more than a decade, with little real planning. Instead of stimulating the economy with a massive initial dose of spending, they spread it over ten years +. It's not surprising their programs didn't work at all. Japan is also a rigid society, permitting very little immigration. Look at their demographics, they are highly skewed to the elderly. It's no wonder they have huge deficits, they don't have the demographic base to generate enough tax revenues to pay down the debt. The only way out for Japan is to open up their society and encourage immigration and/or promote large families.


]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 11:15:04 -0500 On Feb 06 06:55 PM betweenthenumbers wrote:

"We have a great example of this exact situation: Japan of the last three decades. First they built a great bubble, just like we did, and rode it way down as the market plummeted. Zero percent interest rates followed, "quantitative easing", bank failures, and pretty
much a shot-by-shot remake of US 2007-present. They had the same "brilliant" "obvious" solution as we are trying as they stimulated like crazy, ran huge government deficits, and used "make work" and tax cut measures year after year. "

Comparing the Japanese experience to what is being proposed today is nonsense. Japan literally built roads and bridges to nowhere for more than a decade, with little real planning. Instead of stimulating the economy with a massive initial dose of spending, they spread it over ten years +. It's not surprising their programs didn't work at all. Japan is also a rigid society, permitting very little immigration. Look at their demographics, they are highly skewed to the elderly. It's no wonder they have huge deficits, they don't have the demographic base to generate enough tax revenues to pay down the debt. The only way out for Japan is to open up their society and encourage immigration and/or promote large families.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117948-royal-carribbean-appears-an-outstanding-long-term-buy?source=feed#comment-373973 373973
Buy stocks with low or no debt. RCL doesn't come close. ]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 21:13:30 -0500
Buy stocks with low or no debt. RCL doesn't come close. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117343-five-missing-pieces-to-the-stimulus-plan?source=feed#comment-370584 370584
We'll know soon enough by the stock market reaction. The markets know before anyone else. My guess is the markets will collapse for the next week or two, and some catalyst will arise (perhaps nationalization of Citi and Bank of America) that kick-starts a broad based rally led by financials and real estate. ]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:02:09 -0500
We'll know soon enough by the stock market reaction. The markets know before anyone else. My guess is the markets will collapse for the next week or two, and some catalyst will arise (perhaps nationalization of Citi and Bank of America) that kick-starts a broad based rally led by financials and real estate. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116370-economy-in-crisis-three-bears-and-a-missing-goldilocks?source=feed#comment-365849 365849
Naw, I was there in the early 1970's. Inflation had exploded during the late 1960's because of the Vietnam war, and increasing oil prices. I took my first job in 1972 at $7200 a year. Two years later my salary was $12,600, and not because of merit. Everyone was getting wage increases of 10% or more a year to catch up with the inflation rate.

Today, we have no inflation on the wage front at all, in fact we have deflation of wages. Yes, the Fed is monetizing debt at present, a necessary attempt to fix to an economy in a deflationary spiral. When the time comes that the economy is expanding again I expect the Fed to try to sop up money supply by raising interest rates.

Increasing wage settlements will be the indicator I use to determine if inflation could become a problem. Right now we have the opposite problem, and it could be years until inflation shows up. Inflation would be a good sign that we are well on the road to recovery, but I doubt if it will ever become the problem it was in the 1970's.
]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 15:57:00 -0500
Naw, I was there in the early 1970's. Inflation had exploded during the late 1960's because of the Vietnam war, and increasing oil prices. I took my first job in 1972 at $7200 a year. Two years later my salary was $12,600, and not because of merit. Everyone was getting wage increases of 10% or more a year to catch up with the inflation rate.

Today, we have no inflation on the wage front at all, in fact we have deflation of wages. Yes, the Fed is monetizing debt at present, a necessary attempt to fix to an economy in a deflationary spiral. When the time comes that the economy is expanding again I expect the Fed to try to sop up money supply by raising interest rates.

Increasing wage settlements will be the indicator I use to determine if inflation could become a problem. Right now we have the opposite problem, and it could be years until inflation shows up. Inflation would be a good sign that we are well on the road to recovery, but I doubt if it will ever become the problem it was in the 1970's.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116336-dennis-gartman-on-gold-oil-government-and-the-economy?source=feed#comment-365833 365833 Sun, 25 Jan 2009 15:41:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115440-14-new-deals-give-aercap-wings?source=feed#comment-361457 361457 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 22:11:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115547-john-hussman-renewed-concern-about-credit-default-spreads?source=feed#comment-361444 361444
No it's not. It's credit default spreads, lower case. He is referring to the spreads on the CDSwaps, which are widening because risk appears to be increasing. He takes that as a warning of defaults to come.]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:50:03 -0500
No it's not. It's credit default spreads, lower case. He is referring to the spreads on the CDSwaps, which are widening because risk appears to be increasing. He takes that as a warning of defaults to come.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115417-obama-pragmatism-and-the-keynesian-fallacy?source=feed#comment-361424 361424
Whoa! What about city planning and construction, what about highways and bridges, etc.

And what about the FDA? Imagine an America without a watchdog on drug creation. Imagine a world of thalidomide babies, lead paint in children's toys, asbestos in drywall, and on and on again.

What we've had under Bush was capitalism run amok. And now the capitalists are whining about the poor guy whose been elected to clean up the mess.

He's got two options. Do nothing and let America heal itself over a decade via depression, or monetize the debt (since no other country can afford to buy all our bonds) and give the country a catalyst to get it going again soon. The catalyst will need to be paid back, but it will be far easier and faster to do that with an economy that is moving again.



]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:20:21 -0500
Whoa! What about city planning and construction, what about highways and bridges, etc.

And what about the FDA? Imagine an America without a watchdog on drug creation. Imagine a world of thalidomide babies, lead paint in children's toys, asbestos in drywall, and on and on again.

What we've had under Bush was capitalism run amok. And now the capitalists are whining about the poor guy whose been elected to clean up the mess.

He's got two options. Do nothing and let America heal itself over a decade via depression, or monetize the debt (since no other country can afford to buy all our bonds) and give the country a catalyst to get it going again soon. The catalyst will need to be paid back, but it will be far easier and faster to do that with an economy that is moving again.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115467-jim-kunstler-welcomes-barack-obama?source=feed#comment-361412 361412
To you commentators who rail against 'nitwit socialists', please enlighten us with your own wisdom here - what would you morons do? Oh, I get it, you would do what Bush initially did about Katrina - nothing - let the bums die.

]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:02:19 -0500
To you commentators who rail against 'nitwit socialists', please enlighten us with your own wisdom here - what would you morons do? Oh, I get it, you would do what Bush initially did about Katrina - nothing - let the bums die.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112833-2009-potential-surprises-and-other-predictions?source=feed#comment-343674 343674 Thu, 01 Jan 2009 16:53:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112828-cash-is-not-yet-king-when-it-comes-to-market-performance?source=feed#comment-343666 343666
The point is valid: cash rich iconic companies have simply not outpaced the S&P500 in the 2008 bear market in any meaningful sense, nor during the trading range phase since November 2008. Something to do with babies and bathwater, it seems.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 16:34:35 -0500
The point is valid: cash rich iconic companies have simply not outpaced the S&P500 in the 2008 bear market in any meaningful sense, nor during the trading range phase since November 2008. Something to do with babies and bathwater, it seems.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112862-canadian-real-estate-slows-inexorably-part-iii?source=feed#comment-343656 343656
Sorry, but I do not attach any credibility to the market data showing a gain in the past 12 months. Someone is rigging the numbers.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 16:19:23 -0500
Sorry, but I do not attach any credibility to the market data showing a gain in the past 12 months. Someone is rigging the numbers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112887-crisis-contained-as-fed-purchases-mortgage-backed-securities?source=feed#comment-343454 343454
I'm just guessing at this, the likelihood is that there is no way out of this balance sheet musical chairs game other than much increased inflation down the road, ie. Fed balance sheet repair by an extra 2 points more inflation per year, and slower growth. Commodities anyone?

]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 12:39:28 -0500
I'm just guessing at this, the likelihood is that there is no way out of this balance sheet musical chairs game other than much increased inflation down the road, ie. Fed balance sheet repair by an extra 2 points more inflation per year, and slower growth. Commodities anyone?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112896-united-socialist-states-of-america-not-quite?source=feed#comment-343378 343378
Hmmm, Obama isn't even the preznit yet, so how can he continue hs ways.

All you Obama haters, you're hating him for the wrong reasons but you are too ignorant or bigotted to know. He's going to be one of the most decisive, toughest presidents ever (he's not a leftist at all except on social issues like abortion) and will make many mistakes based on his ignorant views on such matters as Afghanistan. He will do no harm on the economic front, that harm has already been done by the current administration.

Regulation will increase because the populace is demanding it, and it will be a good thing. The Financial Wild West is over folks, get used to it.

Instituting a decent health care plan is probably the most important thing that Obama will do for America. Corporate America will then be able to compete on a level playing field with the rest of the civilized world.
]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 11:36:27 -0500
Hmmm, Obama isn't even the preznit yet, so how can he continue hs ways.

All you Obama haters, you're hating him for the wrong reasons but you are too ignorant or bigotted to know. He's going to be one of the most decisive, toughest presidents ever (he's not a leftist at all except on social issues like abortion) and will make many mistakes based on his ignorant views on such matters as Afghanistan. He will do no harm on the economic front, that harm has already been done by the current administration.

Regulation will increase because the populace is demanding it, and it will be a good thing. The Financial Wild West is over folks, get used to it.

Instituting a decent health care plan is probably the most important thing that Obama will do for America. Corporate America will then be able to compete on a level playing field with the rest of the civilized world.
]]>