mikeg3

Disparity in Bank Asset Valuations

If C is marked to market at the bottom, what happens during the recovery.?

When can C buy back the government shares?

The Stress Test Cliff Notes

Your comments were a blast!
The truth is that the major BHC's own going businesses. When the recession ends, they will do OK. During the recession, their fire-sale net worth is negative. Come to think of it, even during normal times a megabank could not quickly sell all their assets for enough to cover all their liabilities.
So the banks' game plan now is to batten down the hatches and wait out the recession, while keeping their polical bases covered and talking a good game on lending.
If the banks all do this successfully, how will we ever get out of the recession (think Japan 1990's)?
Answer 1:
We click our shoes together three times and repeat after me: "There's no place like home".
Answer 2:
We nationalize and resell like mad creating smaller banks run by small bank managers who have no experience whatsoever with addressing trillion dollar problems. This mainly enriches the shorts and convinces long term investors to never buy shares again in a company subject to Fed supervision.
Answer 3:
We pump so much money into the economy that jobs recover. Once jobs recover, foreclosures of owner-occupied houses return to normal. Fact: most actual homeowners with underwater mortgages do not mail in the keys unless they lose their income. Once the supply of houses stabilizes and the deficit spending fires up inflation, housing prices start to rise. This creates a buying panic among families and speculators looking to buy at the bottom. Only then do the bank assets become liquid again and MTM works. Of course, there will still be losses, but they will be quantifiable and the megabanks can earn their way out of the hole in a transparent manner.
Do I believe this? Yes.
Am I sure? Absolutely not.
Answer 4:
A really big war breaks out (guess where) and three problems are solved in rapid succession: A) Unemployment B) Declining GNP C) Humans overpopulating planet Earth.

Pre-Payments Reducing Value of Mortgage-Backed Securities

Under normal conditions, you'd be correct. However, banks are currently starved for capital and any way they get more cash without diluting their common stock is a good thing. The problem you describe was the original reason tranche's were created, so the holders of the "equity tranche", the riskiest 5%, get a lot of the prepayment. Since this tranche is selling for peanuts right now, investors who accept your analysis have an interesting speculation available.

Bank Nationalization: It's Just Plain Wrong

BTW, Japan, after the miracle cure of bank nationalization, is much worse off than the US with its banks particularly hard hit.
www.nytimes.com/2009/0...

Bank Nationalization: It's Just Plain Wrong

It took some courage to post this piece on a board full of short sellers and bank haters, but the points werre well taken.
Given time, the banks will earn their way out of the problem and housing prices will stabilize and begin to rise. Inflation, sure to follow the multi-trillion dollar deficit spending, will speed up the process.
Examples from socialist countries do not apply to the US. If the price of government help is nationalization, few companies will ask for help next time and few investors wil risk their capital in an industry where the house closes out the game while there are still chips on the table.
As for moral hazard, even here in Texas there are penalties short of capital punishment.

Feds Should Leave Wells Fargo Well Alone

>Wells Fargo did not want the government money nor did thy want >Wachovia. Treasury told them they had to take the money and Wachovia.

I guess that will be Kovacevich's defense in the Citi/Wachovia trial: "Sheila Bair made me do it".

Good luck!

Feds Should Leave Wells Fargo Well Alone

If WFC wants to train their staff, they doubtless have training facilities in San Francisco or Oakland with room discounts, etc. This is not the time to make the banks look bad with training sessions at vacation spots.

BTW, gambling, like drinking, is a dangerous vice that is only legal because banning it is worse. Why would a bank be sending their folks to a gambling venue?

Banks: Nationalize, Cleanse and Get It Over With

So Tom, are you short any banks and just talking your book?

BTW,I notice in your profile that you didn't have a good experience as a banker. Which bank?

Large Banks' Net Income History

Please explain the headings FY1, FY2, and FY3.