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Bluesword

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  • Globus' Acquisition Of Excelsius Makes It A Compelling Robotics Story [View article]
    That's why Mazor removed the automated drill. How is the Renaissance system helping spine surgery? Is it a quality product? Do surgeons like it?
    Feb 6, 2014. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China XD Plastics' CEO Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    So strange that this company's stock is languishing when their financial results are so good.
    Nov 25, 2013. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mazor Robotics And The Medical Revolution [View article]
    Part of the problem is the uncertainty the Affordable Care Act is causing. At the moment hospitals don't have a firm idea how this will affect their finances, so they are reticent to spend on big ticket items. That is why Intuitive Surgical reported lower system sales and revenues. They sold far fewer systems than previous quarters due to the uncertainty. This is going to be even more pronounced short-term with a company like Mazor with a new technology that is in early adoption stage.
    Oct 23, 2013. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Expect Stock Buybacks To Accelerate In 2014 [View article]
    Why will something else come up? They should continue to boost earnings while buying back shares. The economy should improve. They should be able to devote more capital to buybacks and balance sheet repair retiring boy common, preferred stock, warrants, bonds, and the like. They're a huge bank earning 90 plus billion a year. Give them some time to get things cleaned up. It was a real mess and the government is all over them because banks are being blamed for the poor decisions of consumers and the government.
    Oct 8, 2013. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Expect Stock Buybacks To Accelerate In 2014 [View article]
    Buying back shares is a necessity before increasing the dividend. The share dilution that occurred during the financial crisis allowed the company to survive, but that mess must be cleaned up before boosting the dividend. I'm expecting, in fact wanting, share buybacks for the next few years to return the shares in circulation to a normal level. Then I expect the dividend to return to normal levels around the 1.50 to 2.00 range with steady increases. I'm going to sit on my stock at this price waiting for a doubling or tripling of the stock as well as 10% plus dividend based on the current purchase price.

    Those who are impatient and want to get out can do so. I bought in knowing this was a long-term repair job with excellent upside. I'm going to wait for it while trading in and out of the stock and making occasional additional income selling options.
    Oct 7, 2013. 07:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
    This article started off with very good information. The comments seem to have devolved into a back and forth concerning BP the villain and those defending the company. I would like to see a return to a focus on the financials of BP the company. The moral discussion takes the focus away from the quality financial information in the article.

    We all know the oil industry is dangerous to the environment. We're all well aware that there will be detrimental environmental damage that will take years to repair. This information we could find with just about any oil or fracking operation and it does nothing to strengthen the argument for or against BP.

    As far as the previous discussion about loss of life in the oil and gas industry, here is but one article showing how many people suffer severe or deadly injuries from working in the oil and gas industry.

    http://1.usa.gov/1cH5mrX

    There are plenty more where that came from. Oil and gas work is a dangerous occupation. Plenty more than the 11 that died at the BP well have died and plenty more than that will die in the coming years. That doesn't even include workers in other nations.

    Oil and gas is an industry with a lot of pollution, fatal accidents, and other such events that make it a dangerous industry. We all want our gas, power, and all the other items we get from the petrol industry. Until that changes, these type of events will happen again and again.

    I'm not going to vilify BP as though they did something worse than everyone else. They happen to be the one with the major screw up this time around just like Exxon in the in the past. Someone else will make another huge mistake in the future.

    All I want to know is how much will it cost them. So far that number is not known. This article was supposed to be focused on that.
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
    I read the case. It was the standard corporate incompetence that happens when a confluence of events come together. No fracking doesn't worry a ton about safety save what is regulated. There have been reports they are causing strange shifts in the tectonic plates in the area they frack in as well as tainted water. Oil and gas is a dirty business. So singling out BP is ridiculous. They had a major screw up happen. It won't be the last one we ever see by an oil company. Almost every company has had such an incident. We all keep wanting gas to drive our cars, generate our power, and the like. Singling out BP like they are extra bad is unnecessary.
    Aug 5, 2013. 06:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
    If BP is criminal, everyone driving a car that uses gasoline made from oil is a criminal. You're grandstanding when the world drives oil production. All BP did is have a major accident. They are bound to happen as long as the world is using oil whether it's from standard drilling to fracking. Don't grandstand and make it seem like BP is somehow worse. We're all involved in this ecological destruction.
    Aug 4, 2013. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Is Having A Panic Attack Over Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    BP did write a poor settlement. Not sure why they did it. It is open-ended and required no proof that the loss of sales was caused by the oil spill. They initially maed an estimate of 7.8 billion, raised it to 8.5 billion, and now have no idea how much it will be.

    I see so many on here ignoring the Clean Water Act fines and the state settlements coming down the pipeline.

    I do disagree with the author that quite a few claims are spurious, even if not legally considered fraud. BP is not "whining." That's an immature term to use. They have legitimate concerns about how the payouts are being handled.

    That being said they should never have written such an open-ended agreement in America, probably the most litigious society in the world. This society is so ridiculous you can sue people nowadays for stock losses you take after you made the choice to buy the stock. If money is available from a lawsuit, the average American is probably going to try to get it. The average American businessman is definitely going to ge it. This is regardless if their business is affected or not. That's just how American society and people are. That is coming from a proud American.

    BP has a situation on their hands where their visibility is limited as to the extent of their liabilities. They will survive. I have no doubt of that. I will not at all be surprised if they have to cancel the dividend for another year or at least a few quarters.
    Jun 28, 2013. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Another Week Of Accelerating Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    45 Billion is coming whether or not these economic claims accelerate. If the economic loss claims hit 45 billion from the settlement, we're talking 80 to 90 billion in payouts. BP can do it. But it would hit the bottom line hard. They could take out a loan that size to pay off the payouts that need to be paid quickly. Then pay 8 to 10 billion a year servicing the loan while still paying out shareholders. It would still be ugly. They do earn 10 to 20 billion a year. If they get these economic loss claims into the 10 to 12 billion range, they won't have much trouble paying that.
    Jun 27, 2013. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Another Week Of Accelerating Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    Even if the economic losses hit 45 billion, BP could pay it. It's the economics losses combined with the Clean Water Act fines and state settlements that will kill them.
    Jun 26, 2013. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noodles & Co.: An IPO With Growth Potential [View article]
    Thanks for this article. I usually stay away from restaurant IPOs given most don't stand out in a meaningful way. This company stands out. I don't like the inconsistent experience. They do have a more complex food than a burger, burrito, or wings. Noodles aren't easy to do exactly the same each time. That will make their food more difficult to execute. They will have to shore up the quality control at some point if the inconsistency damages growth.

    Noodles and soup are two of the casual foods I crave at times. Being able to go to a place that offers me noodle variety would be appealing. Sometimes I want mac and cheese, sometimes Thai or Chinese noodles, sometimes spaghetti. I have that all in one place rather than going to different restaurants.

    Five Guys and Chipotle both have very average and boring main foods. I can get a better burrito at small, local burrito places. I can get a better burger making it at home. I would rate Five Guys and Chipotle both 3s as far as good goes. Five Guys does have 5 fries. So a middling experience is what I expect from Noodles like going to almost any chain restaurant. I do hope they improve their consistency. You don't want a 1 to 5 experience. A bunch of 3s is much better than oscillating between I hate it and I love it.

    I do wonder why they feel the need to pay off debt with the proceeds if they are growing at a fast rate. If you're rapidly growing, generally you need the capital to continue.
    Jun 26, 2013. 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Another Week Of Accelerating Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    Why aren't you including the Clean Water Act fines and State lawsuits in your analysis of BP's overall liabilities?
    Jun 26, 2013. 05:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Another Week Of Accelerating Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    If BP has to pay 45 Billion in economic loss claims on top of 4.5 billion in fines on top of 8 to 20 billion in Clean Water Act fines on top of around 20 to 30 billion to the states to settle claims, they are going bankrupt. If the 8.5 billion estimate rises to 45 billion, stick a fork in BP until they come out of bankruptcy.

    Some are focusing on these claims without accounting for the Clean Water Act fines and the state lawsuits which should average about 5 billion each give or take.

    Let's see:
    45 billion economic loss claims from settlement.
    12 billion Clean Water Act (middle number)
    25 billion state lawsuits
    4.5 billion penalty from previous government lawsuit

    86.5 billion on top of what has already been paid out which has roughly been 40 billion.

    This is why BP is a worrisome stock. No one knows where this bleeding will stop. I can pretty much guarantee if the claims reach 45 billion, BP will enter bankruptcy. Then very few people will get their money very quickly.

    I have heard they have the option to bankrupt their American operations separate from their foreign operations. Not sure the plausibility of that strategy or how it will effect the stock price.

    If you believe the claims will reach 45 billion, you should not buy BP stock. On top of what they will be paying for the Clean Water Act fines and the state settlements, they will bleed billions over the next few years and will probably claim bankruptcy to stop it all.
    Jun 25, 2013. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Disturbing Spike This Week In BP Payouts For Business Economic Losses [View article]
    I have a very small amount of my portfolio invested. It's more of a tracking amount of money invested. You do not not know when a stock is going to spike or drop. What if BP gets a beneficial ruling that halves the liability I have already priced into my investment? Then the stock spikes, I miss out on the spike and have to buy in at at a higher price missing out on much of the immediate upside from clearing the legal liabilities.

    When you are long a stock like BP, you are waiting for the event that has kept the price lagging to be cleared. That is what people are wating for who are invested in BP.

    Now if they get the maximum liability or near maxium and have to suspend the dividend again, the stock will spike down. I'll grab some more of it because I'll get a nice fat dividend that will start growing back to the 3.24 it was prior to my purchase which will be about a 10% or more dividend as well as doubling of the stock, maybe a little more as the years wear on.

    I consider it a fairly low risk two bagger investment in a company that has a great history of returning capital to investors I have been able to purchase at a reduced price due to the liability. I consider the liability issues to be something they will be able to survive with a worst case scenario the loss of the dividend for another year and the sale of a few more assets.

    I look at it more like a bond investment with far more upside than I could get from a bond. Mainly I'm invested because I can't determine an exact date when the stock will spike when the liabilities are more clear. Most stocks give the largest return for the entire year in a very tight period. If you aren't invested, you may miss the largest portion of the return and buy in late. When you're investing long, you stay in until the price you have determined to be the return you feel is proper value from the stock is met. Once that happens you sell and look for the next upside play.

    My expected return from this stock is 100%, a double and a dividend rate of 10% from a large, well-established oil company within three to four years.

    I'll always be looking around for the fast growers while keeping a few BPs and GEs to work like bonds in my portfolio.
    Jun 14, 2013. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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