Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Bluesword's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    The world economy will not go down for the count. There is a recovery from 2008 that has occurred. We will have another recession within a few years as the market adjusts to increased interest rates and badly run companies die replaced by larger companies picking off cheap assets. The market will not reach 2008 levels again for some time. Companies have been very reticent about expansion and have huge cash hoards built up for deployment once interest rates rise and they get some real insight into how the cost of borrowing will affect their bottom lines and balance sheets. Money has been too cheap to borrow. So of course they took advantage of it to make more money. Once it is withdrawn, the repercussions will be felt. Then the economy will be as it always has been: up and down. Maybe younger people feel the economy grows in one direction. It never has and never will. That reality will hopefully start to make people more conservative and intelligent with money. I even hope one day to see the 30 year mortgage turned into a dinosaur as people realize mortgages on homes is a scam and that forcing real estate to be sold for the market rate of a person's income will drive the price down. Flooding the market with all that money from lending is what turned the housing market into the sickeningly poor investment it currently is.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    Asking a guy that invests in charts rather than companies why he thinks a company is going to $20 is like asking a guy for his opinion on whether it is going to rain or not. He'll give you an answer, but it won't be based on anything tangible. This guy is pushing a technical trading philosophy he thinks works well.

    There are reasons to worry about CBI. It is visible on their financial statements mostly involving assets and liabilities. They did not hide anything. Your main risk comes from bankruptcy or canceled contracts from clients that can no longer afford to invest in energy infrastructure that looked attractive when the contracts were made. I noticed they have a lot of LNG projects. The investment thesis behind LNG was the cheap cost of natural gas compared to $100 oil. That isn't the case now. That might hurt LNG projects. Just as we're seeing with drillers (I know rig count doesn't account for much for CBI), contracts are being cancelled or restructured. Drillers don't have a choice because they can't force payment from a company that is going to bankrupt or can't afford their service. The drillers are pushing back rig orders because there is no work for them. That affects the companies that build rigs. Though CBI isn't a rig builder, something similar could happen with LNG projects as countries and companies take advantage of cheap oil. That could hurt the bottom line in the coming years.

    The natural gas movement was huge for a few years there due to high priced oil and low priced natural gas. CBI seemed to benefit from the natural gas movement. If that movement has stalled, it might hurt CBI as well.

    That being said, CBI does seem attractive at this price. I would feel a whole lot better if oil rose again and the natural gas movement gained momentum. The natural gas movement helped CBI obtain a lot of business. Cheap oil will slow the LNG movement big time.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    Another Doomsayer making foolish proclamations about the demise of the U.S. economy. It's been worse all over the world before and will be again after we crawl out of this hole. There is not and never has been financial stability in this world. It was far worse in the past, even under a commodity based currency. The Fed did what they feel they had to do to keep the economy afloat. We'll see what the total effect is as time goes on. We recovered from all kinds of recessions. Savaging earnings? Overstate much? Most people don't invest. Capitalism has hardly become a religion. People don't deify corporations. That's rubbish. Most people know very little about companies and rely on money managers to handle it. You overstate your argument by many multiples. You doing exactly what you claim companies do: falsifying information to push your agenda. You doomsayers have been squawking for years now, yet you've been wrong. You're like the guy saying oil is going to $20 or oil is going to $100 with some elaborate sounding insight. It's all poppycock. None of you know what is going to happen one way or the other. If you technical traders were as good as you think you are, you would be the wealthiest people on the planet. Yet I rarely see any of you on the top Forbes list because technical trading builds or adds nothing to the economy and is a smoke and mirrors game.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Globus' Acquisition Of Excelsius Makes It A Compelling Robotics Story [View article]
    That's why Mazor removed the automated drill. How is the Renaissance system helping spine surgery? Is it a quality product? Do surgeons like it?
    Feb 6, 2014. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China XD Plastics' CEO Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    So strange that this company's stock is languishing when their financial results are so good.
    Nov 25, 2013. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mazor Robotics And The Medical Revolution [View article]
    Part of the problem is the uncertainty the Affordable Care Act is causing. At the moment hospitals don't have a firm idea how this will affect their finances, so they are reticent to spend on big ticket items. That is why Intuitive Surgical reported lower system sales and revenues. They sold far fewer systems than previous quarters due to the uncertainty. This is going to be even more pronounced short-term with a company like Mazor with a new technology that is in early adoption stage.
    Oct 23, 2013. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Expect Stock Buybacks To Accelerate In 2014 [View article]
    Why will something else come up? They should continue to boost earnings while buying back shares. The economy should improve. They should be able to devote more capital to buybacks and balance sheet repair retiring boy common, preferred stock, warrants, bonds, and the like. They're a huge bank earning 90 plus billion a year. Give them some time to get things cleaned up. It was a real mess and the government is all over them because banks are being blamed for the poor decisions of consumers and the government.
    Oct 8, 2013. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Expect Stock Buybacks To Accelerate In 2014 [View article]
    Buying back shares is a necessity before increasing the dividend. The share dilution that occurred during the financial crisis allowed the company to survive, but that mess must be cleaned up before boosting the dividend. I'm expecting, in fact wanting, share buybacks for the next few years to return the shares in circulation to a normal level. Then I expect the dividend to return to normal levels around the 1.50 to 2.00 range with steady increases. I'm going to sit on my stock at this price waiting for a doubling or tripling of the stock as well as 10% plus dividend based on the current purchase price.

    Those who are impatient and want to get out can do so. I bought in knowing this was a long-term repair job with excellent upside. I'm going to wait for it while trading in and out of the stock and making occasional additional income selling options.
    Oct 7, 2013. 07:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
    This article started off with very good information. The comments seem to have devolved into a back and forth concerning BP the villain and those defending the company. I would like to see a return to a focus on the financials of BP the company. The moral discussion takes the focus away from the quality financial information in the article.

    We all know the oil industry is dangerous to the environment. We're all well aware that there will be detrimental environmental damage that will take years to repair. This information we could find with just about any oil or fracking operation and it does nothing to strengthen the argument for or against BP.

    As far as the previous discussion about loss of life in the oil and gas industry, here is but one article showing how many people suffer severe or deadly injuries from working in the oil and gas industry.

    There are plenty more where that came from. Oil and gas work is a dangerous occupation. Plenty more than the 11 that died at the BP well have died and plenty more than that will die in the coming years. That doesn't even include workers in other nations.

    Oil and gas is an industry with a lot of pollution, fatal accidents, and other such events that make it a dangerous industry. We all want our gas, power, and all the other items we get from the petrol industry. Until that changes, these type of events will happen again and again.

    I'm not going to vilify BP as though they did something worse than everyone else. They happen to be the one with the major screw up this time around just like Exxon in the in the past. Someone else will make another huge mistake in the future.

    All I want to know is how much will it cost them. So far that number is not known. This article was supposed to be focused on that.
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
    I read the case. It was the standard corporate incompetence that happens when a confluence of events come together. No fracking doesn't worry a ton about safety save what is regulated. There have been reports they are causing strange shifts in the tectonic plates in the area they frack in as well as tainted water. Oil and gas is a dirty business. So singling out BP is ridiculous. They had a major screw up happen. It won't be the last one we ever see by an oil company. Almost every company has had such an incident. We all keep wanting gas to drive our cars, generate our power, and the like. Singling out BP like they are extra bad is unnecessary.
    Aug 5, 2013. 06:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
    If BP is criminal, everyone driving a car that uses gasoline made from oil is a criminal. You're grandstanding when the world drives oil production. All BP did is have a major accident. They are bound to happen as long as the world is using oil whether it's from standard drilling to fracking. Don't grandstand and make it seem like BP is somehow worse. We're all involved in this ecological destruction.
    Aug 4, 2013. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Is Having A Panic Attack Over Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    BP did write a poor settlement. Not sure why they did it. It is open-ended and required no proof that the loss of sales was caused by the oil spill. They initially maed an estimate of 7.8 billion, raised it to 8.5 billion, and now have no idea how much it will be.

    I see so many on here ignoring the Clean Water Act fines and the state settlements coming down the pipeline.

    I do disagree with the author that quite a few claims are spurious, even if not legally considered fraud. BP is not "whining." That's an immature term to use. They have legitimate concerns about how the payouts are being handled.

    That being said they should never have written such an open-ended agreement in America, probably the most litigious society in the world. This society is so ridiculous you can sue people nowadays for stock losses you take after you made the choice to buy the stock. If money is available from a lawsuit, the average American is probably going to try to get it. The average American businessman is definitely going to ge it. This is regardless if their business is affected or not. That's just how American society and people are. That is coming from a proud American.

    BP has a situation on their hands where their visibility is limited as to the extent of their liabilities. They will survive. I have no doubt of that. I will not at all be surprised if they have to cancel the dividend for another year or at least a few quarters.
    Jun 28, 2013. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Another Week Of Accelerating Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    45 Billion is coming whether or not these economic claims accelerate. If the economic loss claims hit 45 billion from the settlement, we're talking 80 to 90 billion in payouts. BP can do it. But it would hit the bottom line hard. They could take out a loan that size to pay off the payouts that need to be paid quickly. Then pay 8 to 10 billion a year servicing the loan while still paying out shareholders. It would still be ugly. They do earn 10 to 20 billion a year. If they get these economic loss claims into the 10 to 12 billion range, they won't have much trouble paying that.
    Jun 27, 2013. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Another Week Of Accelerating Business Economic Loss Claims [View article]
    Even if the economic losses hit 45 billion, BP could pay it. It's the economics losses combined with the Clean Water Act fines and state settlements that will kill them.
    Jun 26, 2013. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noodles & Co.: An IPO With Growth Potential [View article]
    Thanks for this article. I usually stay away from restaurant IPOs given most don't stand out in a meaningful way. This company stands out. I don't like the inconsistent experience. They do have a more complex food than a burger, burrito, or wings. Noodles aren't easy to do exactly the same each time. That will make their food more difficult to execute. They will have to shore up the quality control at some point if the inconsistency damages growth.

    Noodles and soup are two of the casual foods I crave at times. Being able to go to a place that offers me noodle variety would be appealing. Sometimes I want mac and cheese, sometimes Thai or Chinese noodles, sometimes spaghetti. I have that all in one place rather than going to different restaurants.

    Five Guys and Chipotle both have very average and boring main foods. I can get a better burrito at small, local burrito places. I can get a better burger making it at home. I would rate Five Guys and Chipotle both 3s as far as good goes. Five Guys does have 5 fries. So a middling experience is what I expect from Noodles like going to almost any chain restaurant. I do hope they improve their consistency. You don't want a 1 to 5 experience. A bunch of 3s is much better than oscillating between I hate it and I love it.

    I do wonder why they feel the need to pay off debt with the proceeds if they are growing at a fast rate. If you're rapidly growing, generally you need the capital to continue.
    Jun 26, 2013. 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment