User 219937

U.S. Strategy for G20 Doesn't Work

Defraud your creditors? Sovereign default on this scale would plunge the global economy into the dark ages. No one wants that.

Instead, there will be structural adjustments - the Chinese getting the green light to buy real assets in the US in return for continued "support" and progressive USD devaluation.

The Hummer Years are gone. These are the twilight years of 20th American Capitalism, with hard compromises to make. There's a New World Order to come...

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the kleptocrats took over. I'm not at all convinced it will be different here.

A Lazy ETF Portfolio Underweighting the U.S.

You can do a lot worse than following a brilliant mind like el-Erian's. I decided to make a similar examination, comparing also the Harvard 07 and Yale Models. Although your case el-Erian investment-substitutes may be correct, I used:

El-E 08 Symbol
15.0% VTI
15.0% VEU
12.0% VWO
9.0% BWX
5.0% BND
5.0% TIP
11.0% VNQ
11.0% DBC
7.0% PSP
10.0% CASH

100.0%

I was happy to see that my own portfolio strategy & investment selections vastly outperformed this ETF Model, but I wouldnt presume that the El-Erian's managers deliver the same performance.

Good luck with this!

Morningstar: ETFs Will Never Replace Mutuals

Brilliant assessment, Murray.

I believe that many advisors still harbor fears, wondering if ETFs are a gimmick or threat. Is advisor money moving into commodities & narrow sectors in a big way? No, these professionals and their clients are only just awakening. Older advisors are still wary of commodities, after a 20 year bear market. Those already invested are vanguardist, ahead of the learning curve. MStar is not.

Remember always, the great pool of retirement money is CONSERVATIVE. Anticipate fund companies fearmongering against the competition in subtle ways, too. Their long term lifecycle products (75/25) are down -14.4% YTD (on avg), but the 401k suckers will stay married to lackluster & losing investments for only so long.

It's business as usual... until its not LOL.