onzilla

Markets Are Pointing Down

i just can't beleive that people waste their time with this kind of analysis. do you know why all the brokerage houses fired their equity technical analysts? not becuase the add absolutely no value.. (the knew that when they hired them).. but because finally even the masses realized that this was nothing more than witch craft.. (in equity markets anyways).

good luck to you all

How Low Are PE Ratios? A Comment on Mark Hulbert’s Take

not really sure about your data... did you take out the $X Billion of XO losses related to the financials? You would need to unless you think that those numbers will recur on a annual basis indefinitely. Estimated P/E for next year earnings is 11... which is what you should really be looking at... and lets just say that those 'estimates' are wrong... and we are really looking at next years earnings being a 15 P/E , which gives you a earnings yield of ~7%. Compare that with long dated US treasuries. Anyway you cut it, things at these levels are cheap historially v. treasuries. Look at European equities and the valuations are even more pronounced.

Holding Multinationals? Look Out for the Rising Dollar

your naive assesment on simply revenue % from overseas greatly simplifies the issue. there are numerous COGS / OPEX that are also incurred overseas.. defferred revenue can also be positively impacted (although a offset appears on the balance sheet in remeasurement). Additionally, many of these companies hedge income statment risk for these shorter horizon moves. Competitive dynamics also come into play with local currency prices both rising and falling. Bottom line, you have NEVER conversed with someone who knows more about this subject than myself and i can tell you that in general - revenue will decrease as reported by US GAAP but the effects on net income are harder to determine. And in the long run (assuming mobility of capital), it makes very little difference in the economic value of the enterprise.

Massive Opportunity to Short the Dollar

I don't know why I bother comments on these type of posts but something compells me.

This person is a fool... not because of his commentary - which may or may not make sense. But because anyone who has spent time trading the G10 currencies knows that what they don't know. - G10 currency movements are random

Apparently, people think that they can analyze a situation like this, in a similary manner which ALL the major bank Economists / Currency Strategist do and somehow come up with a positive expected value trade.

Guess what.. short the dollar, long the dollar against EUR and your expected value is ZERO (i might agree with an assessment the the forward points equate to true expected value - but most people don't even know what those are).

Anyway... save your poor little fingers by not posting such gibberish.. save your eyes by not reading it... and save your money (more accurately, save your risk budget) by not trading it....

I.O.U.S.A. Movie Is Well-Done and Informative

wyosteven

The problem is that we, as americans, WANT to be lied to ... and told that everything will be ok...

I.O.U.S.A. Movie Is Well-Done and Informative

I've not yet seen the movie but I am intimately familiar with the top. The answer: to me is obvious - and this may piss some people off. But the mess that we are in is one the Lyndon Johnson *legislated*
- here it is M E D I C A R E... of the 55T of the problem MEDICARE is the vast majority of it.

So I appreaciate the fact that a bunch of old AARP farts have legislated themselves a system that can give them a heart transplant when they are 80 years old and will likely only prolong their life by 2 years, but WHEN MY GENERATION takes over, your entitlements will be drastically reduced. NO heart transplant for you geezer. So you BETTER start saving your money so you can pay for it.

That is essentially the problem here, the US, unlike china, has promised to give everything to a select group of old people (low birthweight babies as well - but that is another subject). Guess what, won't happen mr. Baby Boomer, so start actiing like it wont. Don't wait until we have a crisis and we (the people) but the gun to the head of the politicians to fix this mess that you have created.

I, personally, for all the world to see, forego treatment of my medical ailments when i reach the age of 80 - let me dye in peace and use the money on the young, the ones that will actually HELP keep america strong... not some parasite who just wants to choke up the golf course every day.

And with a stroke of a pen, this will happen. Get ready.

3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally

"our fiat doesn't suck as bad as their fiat. Some cause for celebration!"

Guess what... that is what makes currency markets move... don't like it? go buy some gold and sit on it.

"The dollar rally was triggered by timely intervention against an oversold condition. The market manipulators (I think they call them "Market Makers") have access to enough trading position information, in fact they have access to ALL of it now that it is computer-based, that it should be an easy feat for them to determine the size and timing of an intervention to induce a short squeeze."

Do you honestly think that there is a coordinated effort of what you call a 'market maker' to minipulate prices? you have obviouly never spend any time on a FX desk.

"intervention" - what the heck are you talking about.. there has been no intervention (other than verbal) to support the USD.

what about the fact that the US earns roughly the same return on its FDI that the rest of the world earns on the FDI in the US? (mostly invested in goverment fixed income).

so to make a long story short, i am not saying i know what is going to happend with the EUR/USD fx rate. Purchasing Power Parity dynamics would have the EUR off by another 10-20%, but again.. that isn't a great way to trade currencies.

Bottom line, i know what i don't know - fx rates are largely a coin flip in the short / medium term. Take a look at the track record for any 'currency strategist' that employ the same 'sound' reasoning that you do. it sucks.

Why the U.S. Dollar Will Continue to Lose Value

continues to amaze me how people generically say 'the dollar' - well, the dollar will lose value AGAINST WHAT? if you are talking other currencies, I'd say WHICH ONES?

Most people view the USD trade as one against the Euro (as the biggest component of the USD index). Well, this is a two sided trade and although you and all the bank economists that i have ever encountered (and that is a lot) rely on 'fundamental' analysis - of Balance of Payments, etc. The record of these people is DISMAL.. worse than 50% in many cases.

So where does that leave us? Look at short term interest rates. USD against JPY - i'd vote for USD... USD against EUR - rate spread is close but on a PPP basis, USD is 20% undervalued.

Could it be that all of those $4T in USD reserves piled up offshore are used to buy american PRODUCTS, instead of treasury bills? Net exports less petroluem for the US is positive in the last year for the first in many. My guess is this trend continues.

USD - against what?

Redwood Trust: From $30 to $4 by Year-End?

the whole 50% of book value pricing mechanisum is pretty flawed. Financials are trading at 50% of book based on things to come, yet in this article, you let these things arrive - AND THEN TAKE A 50% HAIRCUT ON THAT NUMBER? Let's talk some basic math here, if financial statements are accurate (big if - but you go through such painstaking mean to make them so) - why would you take an additional 50% off of book vaule?