Wayfarer

37 Comments

    • Renewable Energy Is at the Center of the Presidential Debate [view article]
      A square 100 miles on a side in the Arizona desert filled with solar thermal would supply all of the energy this nation currently uses and at today's prices. Solar thermal is also a baseload power because it can be stored as a salt brine in 'insulated vaults' for days. This, PV on roof tops, and wind can and will supply most of the power to the West within a few decades. It will be phased in as old coal and gas plants are retired. If a new transmission grid is built the Southwest can supply the entire nation. Arizona power has begun construction on a 250 meg solar thermal plant south of Phoenix. California has a number that will soon break dirt. Oct 08 07:49 PM
    • Goldman Turns Cautious on Solar Sector [view article]
      Goldman manipulates the market regularly. They talk about weakening demand but the government just passed a bill that will pay 30% of every solar job for the next 8 years. They didn't mention this? How could they miss this? The U.S. has become the 800lb gorilla in world solar demand. Goldman should never be trusted. Oct 07 09:30 PM
    • When Will Solar Be Cost-Competitive with Electricity? [view article]
      First Solar advertisement. Cost/watt is less than half the story. Sep 16 11:44 PM
    • Rough Seas Ahead? [view article]
      I am not sure what this is doing being posted here in Alternative Energies but it is a good read on the bigger energy picture I think. Sep 08 01:33 PM
    • Lower Your Solar Electricity Costs with First Solar [view article]
      Gumby, panels aren't that finicky. Maybe once a year for a scrubbing and once a month for a hose for dust, max. Now if you are stupid enough to put them under sap dripping tree that birds love, then you might be right. Sep 08 01:21 PM
    • Lower Your Solar Electricity Costs with First Solar [view article]
      What are FSLRs installed costs, and what is the payback time, what is the total return over the life of the system, and how do these compare to STP and SPWR? All of this other stuff may matter to traders but not to long term investors. Sep 08 10:14 AM
    • Need Cash? See Suntech [view article]
      Thank you. I think you have asked a bunch of very important questions. I don't have very many good answers. My feeling on the voting machine is near term the voting machine and a bear market will drag them down. Passage of a long term ITC will reverse this and begin a long term solar bull which will eventually evolve into the need for a weighing machine. Thanks again. Aug 24 10:44 PM
    • First Solar Cheaper Than SunPower - Citi [view article]
      I don't think SPWR and FSLR compete much anywhere other than Wall Street. Their solar efficiencies are too different. My question is how will the Cypress distribution affect SPWR? This is projected to have a report date in Sept and a distribution in Oct. Aug 22 02:48 PM
    • Trina Solar: Will 2009 Be a Breakout Year? [view article]
      Thanks, Jack

      I have been checking back for two days in hopes you would post. Your work always has simple math backing up your statements. I get so tired of the posters that just make assertions. I don't own TSL now but I think I will get some after earnings season.       Aug 19 02:00 PM
    • Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
      Jack,

      Thanks for the further comments. I too believe alternative energies are a certainty and soon. There are a number of little thinfilms that have or will start production in the next year. On top of Optisolar which is evidently not so little there is Global Solar whose product is flexible and manufactured roll to roll. Their current efficiencies are 10% with projections of 13% in 2010. They have a partnership with DOW which might allow them to scale very rapidly at some point and the flexible product sounds very interesting for covering entire residential roofs.       Aug 16 10:34 PM
    • Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
      Jack,

      Thanks for the post. I too am confident a long term ITC will be passed within the next year. Also, do you have any idea what Optisolar's solar efficiency is? Their large 500 meg entry to the solar world makes me wonder if their solar efficiency is significantly better than FSLR's.       Aug 16 03:46 PM
    • Everything They Tell You About Solar Is Wrong - Travis Bradford [view article]
      This guy gets it. He is a professional and you can tell that he understands the industry. Read Earth: The Sequel by Fred Krupp. He says lays out the same argument for the development of an solar energy industry infrastructure and the benefits it will bring. Mr. Krupp is the president of the Environmental Defense Fund, the group that convinced George Bush One to deal with acid rain using a cap and trade system. Aug 15 09:30 PM
    • Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
      Thanks for the post but I think there must be a miss print in this. The articles say Sunpower's 250 MegWatt system will produce 550,000 megawatt-hours per year. It says Optisolar's 550 MegWatt system will produce 1,100,000 megawatt-hours per year.

      This doesn't make any sense because it implies that Optisolar's thin film technology on an unmoving rack system is as efficient as Sunpowers 2 dimensional tracking system. No way.

      Further, it is a pretty fair bet that Sunpower's panels will be 22% solar efficient or better. I seriously doubt if Optisolar is produciing a thin film with efficiencies approaching the 30% which would be necessary to make up for being rack mounted. First Solar's efficiencies are about 10.5%. If Optisolar is producing something approaching 30% it would change the world very quickly.

      Aug 15 11:29 AM
    • The Sharp Edge of Solar: Are Solar Stocks Cheap? [view article]
      Yes, I was aware Sharp was a big solar player but like GE they are so diversified you can't make a targeted play. For instance, they make wonderfully dependable cheap microwaves.

      Off subject but SPWR up about 17% this morning on a 250meg sale to PG&E. This also includes their two direction tracking system. Optisolar, startup thinfilm, got 500megs too but theirs is just rack mounted. I found it real interesting that Optisolar has the manufacturing capacity to quickly produce 500meg. They use a amorphous silicon which is not toxic like FSLR's cadTe. Might be time to start shorting FSLR

      Thanks for your post,

      Way

       Aug 15 11:13 AM
    • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30 [view article]
      When I was young if something was in print it was generally considered to have validity. With the internet that assumption can no longer be made. Any idiot can print anything because there is not cost to publishing. Aug 15 06:50 AM
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