Wayfarer

Rough Seas Ahead?

I am not sure what this is doing being posted here in Alternative Energies but it is a good read on the bigger energy picture I think.

Lower Your Solar Electricity Costs with First Solar

Gumby, panels aren't that finicky. Maybe once a year for a scrubbing and once a month for a hose for dust, max. Now if you are stupid enough to put them under sap dripping tree that birds love, then you might be right.

Lower Your Solar Electricity Costs with First Solar

What are FSLRs installed costs, and what is the payback time, what is the total return over the life of the system, and how do these compare to STP and SPWR? All of this other stuff may matter to traders but not to long term investors.

Need Cash? See Suntech

Thank you. I think you have asked a bunch of very important questions. I don't have very many good answers. My feeling on the voting machine is near term the voting machine and a bear market will drag them down. Passage of a long term ITC will reverse this and begin a long term solar bull which will eventually evolve into the need for a weighing machine. Thanks again.

First Solar Cheaper Than SunPower - Citi

I don't think SPWR and FSLR compete much anywhere other than Wall Street. Their solar efficiencies are too different. My question is how will the Cypress distribution affect SPWR? This is projected to have a report date in Sept and a distribution in Oct.

Trina Solar: Will 2009 Be a Breakout Year?

Thanks, Jack

I have been checking back for two days in hopes you would post. Your work always has simple math backing up your statements. I get so tired of the posters that just make assertions. I don't own TSL now but I think I will get some after earnings season.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Jack,

Thanks for the further comments. I too believe alternative energies are a certainty and soon. There are a number of little thinfilms that have or will start production in the next year. On top of Optisolar which is evidently not so little there is Global Solar whose product is flexible and manufactured roll to roll. Their current efficiencies are 10% with projections of 13% in 2010. They have a partnership with DOW which might allow them to scale very rapidly at some point and the flexible product sounds very interesting for covering entire residential roofs.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Jack,

Thanks for the post. I too am confident a long term ITC will be passed within the next year. Also, do you have any idea what Optisolar's solar efficiency is? Their large 500 meg entry to the solar world makes me wonder if their solar efficiency is significantly better than FSLR's.

Everything They Tell You About Solar Is Wrong - Travis Bradford

This guy gets it. He is a professional and you can tell that he understands the industry. Read Earth: The Sequel by Fred Krupp. He says lays out the same argument for the development of an solar energy industry infrastructure and the benefits it will bring. Mr. Krupp is the president of the Environmental Defense Fund, the group that convinced George Bush One to deal with acid rain using a cap and trade system.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Thanks for the post but I think there must be a miss print in this. The articles say Sunpower's 250 MegWatt system will produce 550,000 megawatt-hours per year. It says Optisolar's 550 MegWatt system will produce 1,100,000 megawatt-hours per year.

This doesn't make any sense because it implies that Optisolar's thin film technology on an unmoving rack system is as efficient as Sunpowers 2 dimensional tracking system. No way.

Further, it is a pretty fair bet that Sunpower's panels will be 22% solar efficient or better. I seriously doubt if Optisolar is produciing a thin film with efficiencies approaching the 30% which would be necessary to make up for being rack mounted. First Solar's efficiencies are about 10.5%. If Optisolar is producing something approaching 30% it would change the world very quickly.

The Sharp Edge of Solar: Are Solar Stocks Cheap?

Yes, I was aware Sharp was a big solar player but like GE they are so diversified you can't make a targeted play. For instance, they make wonderfully dependable cheap microwaves.

Off subject but SPWR up about 17% this morning on a 250meg sale to PG&E. This also includes their two direction tracking system. Optisolar, startup thinfilm, got 500megs too but theirs is just rack mounted. I found it real interesting that Optisolar has the manufacturing capacity to quickly produce 500meg. They use a amorphous silicon which is not toxic like FSLR's cadTe. Might be time to start shorting FSLR

Thanks for your post,

Way

LDK Solar Nearly Doubles Estimates

@Alpha 26 --- Show me the thinfilm technology. Panel cost/watt is only half the game. Solar efficiency is the other. It takes twice as much of all that other stuff in a solar installation when solar efficiency is half. You need to back your bold statements up with numbers.

Yingli Green Energy: Tidy Earnings Bump Up Against Anti-Solar Sentiment

I don't know it's value but both AmTech Research and Jesup & Lamont put out Buy recommendation for YGE this morning.

SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One

Sunpower does not compete with traditional semiconductor companies so it should not be valued as they are. It's high valuation is based primarily upon expected growth in the sector and its solar efficiencies to a lessor extent. The difference in Sunpower's solar efficiency and the run of the mill Chinese companies is 17 to 22 or 22/17=1.29. This 29 % lead makes itself felt in installation. A Sunpower installation requires 29% less of everything else in a utility installation. This includes land, concrete, junction boxes, wiring, structure, labor,... This other stuff costs more than the panels. In a city roof top installation real estate is expensive and that 29% advantage is becoming ever more important as we realize the value of roof top space.

I guess you would say this solar efficiency will be easily overcome but I have not seen any evidence of that yet. SunTech puts a lot of effort into research and they are only at 18-19 on efficiency. So far I have not seen anything showing marked improvement in solar efficiency for the China Solars. As far as manufacturing costs, Sunpower's new fab 1 gig fab in Malaysia is going to make them competitive in manufacturing costs with the Chinese players.

My real hunch though, is that this pie is going to be big enough to sustain a lot of players for the next decade.

SEPA Report Showing End-Market Demand Disconnect Could Sink First Solar, SunPower

Anybody believe that ITC will only be given to utilities? The natural location for PV is rooftops because real estate and distribution costs are minimal. I don't believe are government is stupid enough rule that ITC does not go to home owners.

This is another anonymous piece that should be ignored.