Wayfarer

Solar Stocks Down on Spanish Subsidy Concerns

I wouldn't get to upset about this unless I was a trader. For investors this is just a bump. France is now discussing large solar incentive. Japan has said it made a mistake in discontinuing incentives and will reinstate them. I get the impression this Savitz guy is mostly a writer and doesn't have especially good knowledge of the solar industry. Solar as an industry is still small enough that the momo boys can run stocks up and down short term but the long term prospects for investors are excellent.

First Solar Looking Good - Collins Stewart

"Seems like most of the comments about efficiency assume that the efficiency of thin film panels cannot be improved while the silicon technology can. Is there a physical limitation for improvements to thin film technology?"

You will notice that the quote from FS only talks in generalities. All of the generalities are true but still only amount to a small improvement. So small that FS doesn't give it a value. Thinfilms are more efficient at high temperatures and in low light conditions but this is only a small and occasional improvement. In comparison to FS having a solar efficiency of 10.5 and SPWR having an efficiency of 22 these factors are not important. What matters is the rated solar efficiency when the difference is a factor of two. Also, thinfilms because they require twice as much area for the same energy output are not used on roof tops. Roof tops are the ideal space for PV because there are no distribution. This forces FS to be located in rural farms. In the U.S. sunbelt FS must compete against solar thermal which produces energy almost as cheap as coal. FS requires about 8 acres to produce one megawatt. Crystalline requires about 4 acres to produce one megawatt. Solar thermal in the sunbelt can produce a little less than one megawatt per acre. Thinfilms have to improve their solar efficiencies a great deal to be competitive in the long run.

First Solar Looking Good - Collins Stewart

I don't see the long term growth here that I see in the better crystalline manufacturers. My problem with FS and thinfilms in general is their solar efficiency. The solar panel is less than half the cost of a solar installation. So, a thinfilm solar farm with the same energy output as a crystalline farm requires twice as much land, concrete,steel, labor, wire, junction boxes... These additional costs are double for a thinfilm installation. The cheaper cost/watt panel price does not outweigh all of these other costs to me. And, on roof tops in cities, the best location for PV, space is at a premium and the lower solar efficiencies make even less sense. Further, silicon prices will eventually return to pre-2004 levels driving down crystalline panel prices by 30% more. If thin film can not improve its solar efficiencies it will not compete in the long run. Don't be caught holding these high P/E stocks when the market prices in their real installation costs. The crystallines like STP an SPWR are much safer bets in the long run.