Wayfarer

Goldman Turns Cautious on Solar Sector

Goldman manipulates the market regularly. They talk about weakening demand but the government just passed a bill that will pay 30% of every solar job for the next 8 years. They didn't mention this? How could they miss this? The U.S. has become the 800lb gorilla in world solar demand. Goldman should never be trusted.

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

News out of Spain on their tariff was what rocked SPWR. Their earnings beat street estimates. The tariff news also rocked his favorites which I like but not to the exclusion of SPWR. SPWR's new lines are going in at over 23% efficiency. STP is putting in 19% efficient lines. The authors favorite companies have technologies with solar efficiencies of about 17%. The math 23/17 = 1.353. Also, SPWR is going to have an inside track in the biggest market of the coming decade, the U.S.. The little Chinese solar companies are good bets near term, long term put your money on SPWR and STP.

Solar: Spain Subsidy-Slashing Rumors Send Stocks Lower

CEO of Sunpower said they would still meet guidance for 2009 regardless of what happens in Spain. Listen to conference call to confirm this. Solar will be up on Friday.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Can't go along with your oil bubble hypothasis. Production is stagnate since 2005 and inventories keep shrinking. I expect solar to run up here based on 2nd quarter financials.

Canadian Solar: The Next Solar Takeover Target?

I wonder what CSIQ's technology is like? Do they have anything in research? SPWR's new lines are going in at 23% solar efficiency. I guess CSIQ's are more average at 15-16%. I am not sure why a company would want to own lower efficiency manufacturing.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

To alpha24sevens,

I am hardly smarmy. I had to look the word up. It is not very flattering.

When I politely asked the author to supply numbers to back up his assertions it was because he must already have them if he made the assertions in good faith. I am beginning to doubt that now especially in light of your 'smary' comment.

My doubt about the authors assertion is based upon his expectation that demand will not keep up with supply near term. Everything I have read shows continued strong demand into 2010 and, with oil at $145 and coal at records I don't see solar hitting a big slump soon. I listened to an interview with the CEO of Q-Cells this week where he said he expected continued industry wide growth of 50% into 2010. His company is building capacity very rapidly right now. Also, France and Japan are both now indicating the likelihood of subsidies soon. It is my opinion that U.S. demand will continue to grow and perhaps dramatically under the next administration. All of this adds up to demand capable of sustaining growth for years to come.

Finally, it is the Chinese that are the low cost producers and should demand slow I suspect they will be better able to compete than some. Also, I don't think the Chinese government will allow wholesale destruction of their solar industry. They will find short term funding if they need it, which I doubt.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

I can not tell if the author is correct or not, there are no numbers. It would be nice if verifiable numbers were supplied for at least one company.

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

GS last November called an average price of gold for 2008 of below $700. It drove the price down for a week or two. Many think they were talking their book. I would not at all be surprised if GS was going long solar at this very moment. The fundamentals are excellent.

Solar Stocks Down on Spanish Subsidy Concerns

I wouldn't get to upset about this unless I was a trader. For investors this is just a bump. France is now discussing large solar incentive. Japan has said it made a mistake in discontinuing incentives and will reinstate them. I get the impression this Savitz guy is mostly a writer and doesn't have especially good knowledge of the solar industry. Solar as an industry is still small enough that the momo boys can run stocks up and down short term but the long term prospects for investors are excellent.