Wayfarer

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Can't go along with your oil bubble hypothasis. Production is stagnate since 2005 and inventories keep shrinking. I expect solar to run up here based on 2nd quarter financials.

Three Plays on Solar Strength This Summer

@ Learning Curve

Yes I would like to discuss thinfilm vs crystalline, thank you. You mention that ovionic's thinfilm can be formed around something such as a roof tile. Physically, maybe it could but to what advantage I don't see. Solar cells or thinfilm must be oriented toward the sun. Better to leave energy gathering surface flat. Also, SPWR makes a flat roof tile. STP has panels that actually form the roof.

Ovionic's (ENER) efficiency is some where around 8%. SPWR's new lines are at 23%. That is almost three to one. Show me any sort of math that makes that work for a solar farm. Now on a metal roof where ENER can just be rolled out and glued on then maybe it would be the best choice if the roof was pitched and oriented correctly. Other than that I don't see how ENER can compete in the long run.

Pretty much the same story for FSLR. Now FSLR does perform better in low light conditions. That plus the fact that demand has outstripped supply in the solar panel industry pretty well explains FSLR's success in low light Germany. FSLR doesn't compete at all in the U.S. sunbelt nor will ENER for most applications.

As I have said many times you must consider the total cost of installation with solar. The panel is less than half the cost and dropping. Unless the thinfilms can improve efficiencies greatly I don't see how they can compete. Also, I don't want to hold those extemely high P/Es. The math tells me they are going to drop like a rock someday soon.

Anybody who has a different take on the numbers between thinfilm and crystalline please explain them to me.

Three Plays on Solar Strength This Summer

I just don't get the interest in thinfilms like FSLR and ENER. Their solar efficiencies are less than half that of SPWR or STP. Solar panels are less than half the cost of a solar system. For a solar system of a given energy output the thinfilms require twice as much of all this other stuff; land, labor, concrete or roof, wire, inverters, junction boxes, maintenance, ... I am putting my investments on the solid crystalline manufacturers.

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

GS last November called an average price of gold for 2008 of below $700. It drove the price down for a week or two. Many think they were talking their book. I would not at all be surprised if GS was going long solar at this very moment. The fundamentals are excellent.