Wayfarer

Goldman Turns Cautious on Solar Sector

Goldman manipulates the market regularly. They talk about weakening demand but the government just passed a bill that will pay 30% of every solar job for the next 8 years. They didn't mention this? How could they miss this? The U.S. has become the 800lb gorilla in world solar demand. Goldman should never be trusted.

First Solar Cheaper Than SunPower - Citi

I don't think SPWR and FSLR compete much anywhere other than Wall Street. Their solar efficiencies are too different. My question is how will the Cypress distribution affect SPWR? This is projected to have a report date in Sept and a distribution in Oct.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Jack,

Thanks for the further comments. I too believe alternative energies are a certainty and soon. There are a number of little thinfilms that have or will start production in the next year. On top of Optisolar which is evidently not so little there is Global Solar whose product is flexible and manufactured roll to roll. Their current efficiencies are 10% with projections of 13% in 2010. They have a partnership with DOW which might allow them to scale very rapidly at some point and the flexible product sounds very interesting for covering entire residential roofs.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Jack,

Thanks for the post. I too am confident a long term ITC will be passed within the next year. Also, do you have any idea what Optisolar's solar efficiency is? Their large 500 meg entry to the solar world makes me wonder if their solar efficiency is significantly better than FSLR's.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Thanks for the post but I think there must be a miss print in this. The articles say Sunpower's 250 MegWatt system will produce 550,000 megawatt-hours per year. It says Optisolar's 550 MegWatt system will produce 1,100,000 megawatt-hours per year.

This doesn't make any sense because it implies that Optisolar's thin film technology on an unmoving rack system is as efficient as Sunpowers 2 dimensional tracking system. No way.

Further, it is a pretty fair bet that Sunpower's panels will be 22% solar efficient or better. I seriously doubt if Optisolar is produciing a thin film with efficiencies approaching the 30% which would be necessary to make up for being rack mounted. First Solar's efficiencies are about 10.5%. If Optisolar is producing something approaching 30% it would change the world very quickly.

The Sharp Edge of Solar: Are Solar Stocks Cheap?

Yes, I was aware Sharp was a big solar player but like GE they are so diversified you can't make a targeted play. For instance, they make wonderfully dependable cheap microwaves.

Off subject but SPWR up about 17% this morning on a 250meg sale to PG&E. This also includes their two direction tracking system. Optisolar, startup thinfilm, got 500megs too but theirs is just rack mounted. I found it real interesting that Optisolar has the manufacturing capacity to quickly produce 500meg. They use a amorphous silicon which is not toxic like FSLR's cadTe. Might be time to start shorting FSLR

Thanks for your post,

Way

SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One

Sunpower does not compete with traditional semiconductor companies so it should not be valued as they are. It's high valuation is based primarily upon expected growth in the sector and its solar efficiencies to a lessor extent. The difference in Sunpower's solar efficiency and the run of the mill Chinese companies is 17 to 22 or 22/17=1.29. This 29 % lead makes itself felt in installation. A Sunpower installation requires 29% less of everything else in a utility installation. This includes land, concrete, junction boxes, wiring, structure, labor,... This other stuff costs more than the panels. In a city roof top installation real estate is expensive and that 29% advantage is becoming ever more important as we realize the value of roof top space.

I guess you would say this solar efficiency will be easily overcome but I have not seen any evidence of that yet. SunTech puts a lot of effort into research and they are only at 18-19 on efficiency. So far I have not seen anything showing marked improvement in solar efficiency for the China Solars. As far as manufacturing costs, Sunpower's new fab 1 gig fab in Malaysia is going to make them competitive in manufacturing costs with the Chinese players.

My real hunch though, is that this pie is going to be big enough to sustain a lot of players for the next decade.

SEPA Report Showing End-Market Demand Disconnect Could Sink First Solar, SunPower

Anybody believe that ITC will only be given to utilities? The natural location for PV is rooftops because real estate and distribution costs are minimal. I don't believe are government is stupid enough rule that ITC does not go to home owners.

This is another anonymous piece that should be ignored.

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

News out of Spain on their tariff was what rocked SPWR. Their earnings beat street estimates. The tariff news also rocked his favorites which I like but not to the exclusion of SPWR. SPWR's new lines are going in at over 23% efficiency. STP is putting in 19% efficient lines. The authors favorite companies have technologies with solar efficiencies of about 17%. The math 23/17 = 1.353. Also, SPWR is going to have an inside track in the biggest market of the coming decade, the U.S.. The little Chinese solar companies are good bets near term, long term put your money on SPWR and STP.

Cypress to Complete SunPower Spin-Off By Year-End

Article is entitled: Cypress to Complete SunPower Spin-Off By Year-End.

Then the author does not say one word on the impact of the distribution!

The title should have read, "Reiteration of 2nd quarter report for those that are to lazy to go to SPWR web site and don't care much about the specifics of the report."

Solar: Spain Subsidy-Slashing Rumors Send Stocks Lower

CEO of Sunpower said they would still meet guidance for 2009 regardless of what happens in Spain. Listen to conference call to confirm this. Solar will be up on Friday.

Earnings Preview: Cypress Semiconductor

Cypress released today that they were going to distribute SPWR B shares in the second half of the year.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Can't go along with your oil bubble hypothasis. Production is stagnate since 2005 and inventories keep shrinking. I expect solar to run up here based on 2nd quarter financials.

Canadian Solar: The Next Solar Takeover Target?

I wonder what CSIQ's technology is like? Do they have anything in research? SPWR's new lines are going in at 23% solar efficiency. I guess CSIQ's are more average at 15-16%. I am not sure why a company would want to own lower efficiency manufacturing.