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yaysayer

yaysayer
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  • The New Nifty Fifty: A Comparative Performance Analysis [View article]
    A question popped up when I got to the 10y performances : In 2004, how many of these New Nifty 50 would have actually been in the portfolio?
    The entire premise of the NN50 is that it is composed of long-term dividend payers, so how many of them already had the required dividend streak (AND div. growth) in 2004, when your comparison starts?
    Don't get me wrong, each of the NN50 from Mike's article merits due diligence for anyone trying to build a DGI portfolio NOW, but for long term performance research, you'd have to create a Nifty50 'fund' for each of the 10 years.

    Thanks for the article!
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Albert Einstein's Math Get You To The Finish Line? Retirement Portfolio Quarterly Review [View article]
    Yeah, I answered before my turn, before reading through at least part of your other articles.

    It's an interesting way to balance a portfolio, one I haven't seen before. I'm still in the earlier accumulation phase as I'm only 35, so my gut tells me it's a bit too early to take this specific approach. My age is likely also the reason behind the way i interpreted your allocations earlier.

    I'll definitely be giving this allocation method more thought, it intrigues me.

    Thanks for the clarification
    Dec 4, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Albert Einstein's Math Get You To The Finish Line? Retirement Portfolio Quarterly Review [View article]
    I'd imagine it's according to risk appetite. Largest portions are allocated to consumer goods, stuff that people are 'forced' to keep buying. A large portion goes to healthcare, I presume because the author expects these to rise as the babyboomers grow older and need more care. More sensitive sectors like comms and real estate get the smaller allocations.

    Interested to see the authors input on this.
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Albert Einstein's Math Get You To The Finish Line? Retirement Portfolio Quarterly Review [View article]
    Hahaha, it's actually a part of a series of online game characters i played over the years : naysayer, yaysayer, okaysayer, hurraysayer and so on, the sillier the better :-)

    Yaysayer seemed appropriate from my investing perspective, as in DGI/value investing the moment of purchase is so often the time when you are drowning in naysayers.
    Dec 4, 2014. 05:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Albert Einstein's Math Get You To The Finish Line? Retirement Portfolio Quarterly Review [View article]
    Totally beside the point : I believe the original exponential growth story is about the inventor of chess showing the game to an Indian (Asian indian, not native american indian) king, who was so impressed that he offered the inventor any reward he wanted. The inventor goes on to ask for a grain of rice to be placed on the first sqaure of the board, followed by two grains on the second, 4 on the third, etc... The king, not very gracious in defeat, has the inventor beheaded when it turns out the kingdom would be bankrupted several times over.

    Just mentioning it because I like the fairy-tale atmosphere of this version.

    More to the point : Good article, I like real portfolios going forward, hope you keep the series going.
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Investing Or Index Investing [View article]
    While bonds are nice for the safety of the income, and safety of the principal if held to maturity, they have a couple serious downsides in my opinion.

    Diversifying is hard for the average investor. Buying an individual bond is quite expensive, so if you want to diversify, you'd need a pretty large portfolio, OR go into a bond fund. Same argument as for the equity funds : you have less control over which companies you are invested in.

    In the current rate environment, interest rates aren't able to drop much further, so the mechanic that would make your bonds 'spot value' increase (as it has been the past 25ish years) is gone. If rates rise, you are either stuck with a low yield until maturity, OR you sell for a capital loss, and reinvest at higher rates.

    These arguments only go for individual bonds and straight-up "long all bonds" funds. There are plenty of bond funds with more active strategies which can lead to superior returns, but i have not done sufficient research to make sensible comments on those.

    Repeating the major point imho : don't look too hard at historic fund returns, because a lot of that has been driven by dropping interest rates over the past decades.
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Investing Or Index Investing [View article]
    It's about his own portfolio and his own picks. Picked according to a rather strict set of rules, and held or sold according to these rules.

    While a portion of the S&P tanked during recessions, some of his picks probably failed along the line as well. An index holder has no choice but to watch from the sidelines, while chowder has the option to eliminate equities that are starting to lag the 'hold' rules, and look for new quality candidates with the freed up cash.

    Add to that that chowder is buying sub value vs. an index buying 500 stocks at whatever value they have at that time.
    Dec 2, 2014. 05:53 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Goodbye Mr. Jones": The End Of The Dow As An American Index [View article]
    I'm being devil's advocate here but... If they get kicked from the DJ, that would bring the price down tremendously right? (index funds dumping en masse since the stock no longer belongs in their fund). Creating an opportunity for management to buyback at much better value, and after the short term panic, create more value for the shareholders.
    Nov 4, 2014. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    All these negative comments attacking DGI... The nifty-fifty selection of stocks is NOT DG investing as it is most often described on SA. The nifty fifty selection Mike uses as an example is an index itself, bought with no regard to individual valuations at a snapshot moment in 1974. Like comparing SPY and SDY, starting now and never touching it, except to reinvest dividends of both.

    A DGI approach would involve treating the nifty fifty as a watchlist, and only buying parts of the nifty50 when their price meets valuation criteria. As far as 'keeping until thry are worthless' : Doing due diigence after a dividend freeze/cut seems a common tactic practiced around here.

    So all you naysayers saying DGI got almost beat by SPY : I'm sorry, but you are shouting that one index is better than another index. Congratulations.

    EDIT : I did not mean to mention SDY, I meant to use the DGI-ETFs as example. My point remains valid : Valuations at the time of purchase are a core part of DGI, while 'blindly' purchasing any list at all is index investing, with some lists better than others.
    Sep 26, 2014. 04:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Passive Income From Stock Dividends [View article]
    Exactly the sort of arguments that I'm badgering friends and family with to get them involved into DGI with at least a portion of their portfolio's. Nothing too technical, nothing scary, just the long term focus and long term return, which is what DGI is about at the core.

    Great article, I'll be referring lots of folks to this. Thanks.
    Apr 18, 2014. 04:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The End Of Dividend Investing Coming? [View article]
    look for "David Fish CCC list" on Google, download the excel file. It contains up-to-date information on companies that have consistently grown dividends for >5, >10 or >25 years.
    Jan 3, 2014. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio For Maximum Income Growth [View article]
    Thank you for this article, loved reading the discussion as well
    Jun 29, 2013. 06:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Varying Dividend Policies And The Recovery From The Great Recession [View article]
    Thank you for a good read and well reasoned article
    Jun 28, 2013. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Portfolio Looks Much Better Than Expected [View article]
    cross,

    his valuations look much better than expected. The P/E ratios look scary and are screaming "sell meeeee", but after due diligence it 'looks much better than expected'.

    Also, you are asking YTD performance on a portfolio meant to span decades.
    Jun 4, 2013. 09:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2 Cents On "Buy And Hold" [View instapost]
    I am pretty late with the comment, but hoping for a reply nevertheless :-)
    For simplitcity's sake, lets keep talking about the numder of companies in the 1985 study compared to the 2005 one. if you were invested in those 82 companies, 45 would have been a succes. But since it is a 'buy and forget' strategy you still own 37 companies that you are not planning to monitor and may do what they will.

    Until we know which 37 companies these are and how they actually performed, there's not much of an argument against the performance of 'buy and forget'.

    Don't get me wrong, I really liked the articles so far, and got my feet wet in DGI a bit ago (up to the ankles by now!). I have the time and the interest available to try and squeeze a bit more out of my capital by taking a more active approach by doing my homework every now and then. For any of my friends who dont wish to spend the time learning how to analyse stocks, i recommend following an index. Additionally, with the ETF's available, your holdings in a company leaving the S&P will automatically become holdings in the company moving in.

    Buy and forget is a decent strategy IF you dont have the time/ don't want to spend the time, especially with the ETF's flying around everywhere.
    Buy and monitor can far outperform, IF you learn how to do your homework, and DO it on a regular basis.

    My two cents
    May 26, 2013. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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