kevinm's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/220059/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/120942-betting-on-stagflation?source=feed#comment-392940 392940 Comparing total SS obligations to one year's GDP is erroneous. You have to match assets to liabilities. The reality is that many years of future payments by younger workers must pay for the benefits promised retirees. Sounding the alarm bell for SS on this basis is like saying 'my mortgage is way more than I earn in a year, so I must be insolvent!' No...I have 30 years to pay it off...

However, you can still make a strong case that SS is a mess without using any red herring arguments.

It should be privatized, so that individual responsibility and property rights are restored to the American taxpayer.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 23:00:00 -0500 Comparing total SS obligations to one year's GDP is erroneous. You have to match assets to liabilities. The reality is that many years of future payments by younger workers must pay for the benefits promised retirees. Sounding the alarm bell for SS on this basis is like saying 'my mortgage is way more than I earn in a year, so I must be insolvent!' No...I have 30 years to pay it off...

However, you can still make a strong case that SS is a mess without using any red herring arguments.

It should be privatized, so that individual responsibility and property rights are restored to the American taxpayer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120793-short-selling-cme-group?source=feed#comment-390822 390822 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 14:26:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114523-beating-the-quants-at-their-own-game?source=feed#comment-354222 354222 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 08:41:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114532-reversion-to-the-mean-for-equities?source=feed#comment-354212 354212
I've never been too fond of this 'indicator,' since it can go up just because more companies are going public, as in the tech IPO boom, and go down during an IPO slow period. How many IPO's are being done now?]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 08:33:45 -0500
I've never been too fond of this 'indicator,' since it can go up just because more companies are going public, as in the tech IPO boom, and go down during an IPO slow period. How many IPO's are being done now?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114543-two-economic-triggers-for-recovery?source=feed#comment-354183 354183
The GOVERNMENT is our last hope!

What happens when the Obama non-stimulus "stimulus" plan fails? Calling a new welfare plan 'tax cuts' and initiating long-tail pork and green projects will NOT pull the economy out of the tailspin!

What happens after the 'stimulus' fails, and we are still left with all the national debt? Then they will compound the error by raising taxes! And, BTW, violating legal mortgage contracts, which will NOT make housing prices go up...]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 08:17:53 -0500
The GOVERNMENT is our last hope!

What happens when the Obama non-stimulus "stimulus" plan fails? Calling a new welfare plan 'tax cuts' and initiating long-tail pork and green projects will NOT pull the economy out of the tailspin!

What happens after the 'stimulus' fails, and we are still left with all the national debt? Then they will compound the error by raising taxes! And, BTW, violating legal mortgage contracts, which will NOT make housing prices go up...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114055-yet-another-gruesome-employment-report?source=feed#comment-350904 350904
Why do you think "stimulus" needs to be rushed out the door? Did the "stimulus" package rushed out the door last year do any good?

It would be fine if what Obama calls "stimulus" really was stimulus, and not just big government handouts in drag. Why not just cut marginal tax rates permanently, and let the market decide the best use for the capital? Of course, this is not what Obama is suggesting.

He is creating an aura of panic and false urgency--'the economy is even worse than we thought (look how much Bush and friends messed up!), so you have to pass my stimulus now or the world comes to an end--and if you don't pass it instantly, it is not my fault!' This is what manipulative pols do--create a crisis to ramrod through their pet plans.

This is not, of course, to deny that things are ugly. It is just that the Obama plan, such as it can be discerned, does not look like it will help. And it may well hurt by growing the size of the most unproductive segment of society--government--w... increasing the deficit (and future taxes on the MOST productive segment of society).

So, in order of effectiveness, here are the alternatives:

1) Marginal, permanent, across the board tax cuts for businesses and individuals. This would expand the economy most efficiently, and eventually decrease the deficit as tax receipts increase.

2) Rather than increasing govt spending and waste, CUT government spending.

3) Do nothing. Let the market cleanse itself. At least you avoid the waste and long term harm of....

4) The Obama big government, unproductive, non-stimulus 'stimulus' plan, which is really welfare for those who do not pay taxes, and Chicago-style giveaways to those businesses that would get the infastructure goodies. It will also balloon the deficit.]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 12:31:16 -0500
Why do you think "stimulus" needs to be rushed out the door? Did the "stimulus" package rushed out the door last year do any good?

It would be fine if what Obama calls "stimulus" really was stimulus, and not just big government handouts in drag. Why not just cut marginal tax rates permanently, and let the market decide the best use for the capital? Of course, this is not what Obama is suggesting.

He is creating an aura of panic and false urgency--'the economy is even worse than we thought (look how much Bush and friends messed up!), so you have to pass my stimulus now or the world comes to an end--and if you don't pass it instantly, it is not my fault!' This is what manipulative pols do--create a crisis to ramrod through their pet plans.

This is not, of course, to deny that things are ugly. It is just that the Obama plan, such as it can be discerned, does not look like it will help. And it may well hurt by growing the size of the most unproductive segment of society--government--w... increasing the deficit (and future taxes on the MOST productive segment of society).

So, in order of effectiveness, here are the alternatives:

1) Marginal, permanent, across the board tax cuts for businesses and individuals. This would expand the economy most efficiently, and eventually decrease the deficit as tax receipts increase.

2) Rather than increasing govt spending and waste, CUT government spending.

3) Do nothing. Let the market cleanse itself. At least you avoid the waste and long term harm of....

4) The Obama big government, unproductive, non-stimulus 'stimulus' plan, which is really welfare for those who do not pay taxes, and Chicago-style giveaways to those businesses that would get the infastructure goodies. It will also balloon the deficit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113188-obama-s-tax-cut-a-mustard-seed-of-hope-for-investors?source=feed#comment-347014 347014
HOWEVER, the Obama 'tax cuts' are really not tax cuts, but welfare, as they put income caps on the 'tax cuts'-- meaning the upper end actually shoulder MORE of the tax burden--and the lower earners receive 'refunds' of money they never paid--socialist redistribution or welfare.

True tax cuts would be great. That would involve letting everyone participate and cutting MARGINAL tax rates PERMANENTLY. Somehow, I do not think that is what Obama and the dems have in mind.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:06:11 -0500
HOWEVER, the Obama 'tax cuts' are really not tax cuts, but welfare, as they put income caps on the 'tax cuts'-- meaning the upper end actually shoulder MORE of the tax burden--and the lower earners receive 'refunds' of money they never paid--socialist redistribution or welfare.

True tax cuts would be great. That would involve letting everyone participate and cutting MARGINAL tax rates PERMANENTLY. Somehow, I do not think that is what Obama and the dems have in mind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112520-social-security-a-ponzi-scheme?source=feed#comment-342134 342134
It is insolvent. It is dishonest. It is government coercion, limiting our freedom.

Why does the government not put future Social Security obligations on its balance sheet? Why is the current "surplus" spent, rather than invested in real assets? Why are citizens not allowed to opt out and elect to provide for their own retirements? If we must have it, why are the benefits not guaranteed by law?

Cramer is not right very often, but he could not be more correct about this one.]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:52:29 -0500
It is insolvent. It is dishonest. It is government coercion, limiting our freedom.

Why does the government not put future Social Security obligations on its balance sheet? Why is the current "surplus" spent, rather than invested in real assets? Why are citizens not allowed to opt out and elect to provide for their own retirements? If we must have it, why are the benefits not guaranteed by law?

Cramer is not right very often, but he could not be more correct about this one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112658-another-big-bank-failure-more-likely-than-not-to-occur?source=feed#comment-342114 342114
Reggie has been consistently bearish on the financial stocks for many months. I, for, one, am appreciative of his insights and articles, and have made a lot of money following many of his short recommendations. I would have done even better if I had followed them more aggressively!

Given government backing of the banks, he may now be overplaying his hand. Or maybe not. I don't have the stomach to short them any more. However, his research is incredibly detailed and has been insightful. He is consistently one of the most worthwhile posters.]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:19:06 -0500
Reggie has been consistently bearish on the financial stocks for many months. I, for, one, am appreciative of his insights and articles, and have made a lot of money following many of his short recommendations. I would have done even better if I had followed them more aggressively!

Given government backing of the banks, he may now be overplaying his hand. Or maybe not. I don't have the stomach to short them any more. However, his research is incredibly detailed and has been insightful. He is consistently one of the most worthwhile posters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111993-macy-s-goodwill-is-a-red-flag?source=feed#comment-337235 337235 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 23:21:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112042-say-goodbye-to-a-bear-market-rally-after-madoff-s-ponzi-scheme?source=feed#comment-337221 337221
At least you are right about the bailouts...]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 22:59:01 -0500
At least you are right about the bailouts...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101992-sentiment-overview-selling-pressure-still-has-the-upper-hand?source=feed#comment-290971 290971
Really? Now THAT's the kind of insight I expect when I read Seeking Alpha!]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 16:11:31 -0400
Really? Now THAT's the kind of insight I expect when I read Seeking Alpha!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101798-testing-the-tarp-pnc-and-ncc?source=feed#comment-290074 290074
NCC shareholders will have a much better chance of recouping some of their losses via PNC stock than they would have independently. If you rode it all the way down and were still holding it at $3 blame yourself, and no one else!]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 23:31:30 -0400
NCC shareholders will have a much better chance of recouping some of their losses via PNC stock than they would have independently. If you rode it all the way down and were still holding it at $3 blame yourself, and no one else!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100533-fundamental-valuation-how-low-could-we-go?source=feed#comment-285442 285442
There were no PCs then. No internet. Communism had not yet fallen, and we were in a Cold War. No China and India opening up and growing rapidly. Is medical technology better now or then? Were there cell phones? Automatic garage door openers?

Yes, things are ugly now, and will be for a while. I am no bullish polyanna. But there is no reason that we have to go to 400 on the S & P just because PEs used to be 8 or that stocks once sold for book value.

It is also true that things happen much faster now than then. The 40% drop we have seen in the past year might have taken five or ten years back then. For that matter, every day presents as many trading opportunities as you would typically get in a month, or three, or a year!

Gloom and doom does no one any good, especially after already taking a 40% hit. And black box magic formulas are more what has gotten the market INTO this trouble than what will help get out.]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 23:34:57 -0400
There were no PCs then. No internet. Communism had not yet fallen, and we were in a Cold War. No China and India opening up and growing rapidly. Is medical technology better now or then? Were there cell phones? Automatic garage door openers?

Yes, things are ugly now, and will be for a while. I am no bullish polyanna. But there is no reason that we have to go to 400 on the S & P just because PEs used to be 8 or that stocks once sold for book value.

It is also true that things happen much faster now than then. The 40% drop we have seen in the past year might have taken five or ten years back then. For that matter, every day presents as many trading opportunities as you would typically get in a month, or three, or a year!

Gloom and doom does no one any good, especially after already taking a 40% hit. And black box magic formulas are more what has gotten the market INTO this trouble than what will help get out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96500-morgan-stanley-exploding-the-short-seller-myth?source=feed#comment-260885 260885
It is all psychology. The problem is, few "investors" really know what a stock is worth, and most of those lack courage in their convictions. If the stock is down, they freak out and want to sell. If it is up, they are giddy and want to buy. It is exactly the opposite of what good investors do. It really has little to do with short sellers. The same thing happens the opposite way when momentum stocks go up.]]> Sun, 21 Sep 2008 17:40:03 -0400
It is all psychology. The problem is, few "investors" really know what a stock is worth, and most of those lack courage in their convictions. If the stock is down, they freak out and want to sell. If it is up, they are giddy and want to buy. It is exactly the opposite of what good investors do. It really has little to do with short sellers. The same thing happens the opposite way when momentum stocks go up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96510-read-it-and-weep-for-the-usa?source=feed#comment-260878 260878 Sun, 21 Sep 2008 17:27:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95299-lehman-is-toxic-at-any-price?source=feed#comment-254345 254345 Sun, 14 Sep 2008 18:16:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95268-lehman-and-merrill-possible-scenarios?source=feed#comment-254336 254336 Sun, 14 Sep 2008 18:03:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93245-false-data-clobbers-the-markets?source=feed#comment-241708 241708
The GDP report assumes just a 1.2% annual rate of inflation. Let's see, if you assume inflation is REALLY even 4.5%, then growth is actually zero. However, the latest CPI was +5.6% YTY, while the latest PPI was +9.8% YTY...]]> Fri, 29 Aug 2008 12:16:26 -0400
The GDP report assumes just a 1.2% annual rate of inflation. Let's see, if you assume inflation is REALLY even 4.5%, then growth is actually zero. However, the latest CPI was +5.6% YTY, while the latest PPI was +9.8% YTY...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93245-false-data-clobbers-the-markets?source=feed#comment-241695 241695 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 12:02:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86173-an-open-letter-to-bill-miller?source=feed#comment-212015 212015
He has no risk control mechanism. He obviously does not understand the companies in which he invests. How else do you load up on the home-builders and financials at MUCH higher prices, thinking they are "cheap"?

He has no concept of diversification, taking concentrated positions in these companies that he does not understand.

He has no sell discipline. Not only does he ride the losers down, but he buys more and increases the losses!

When Bill Miller gets fired, THEN it may be time to consider buying the financials--when the last person finally realizes the truth about the "legend" they will probably be near a bottom.]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:13:57 -0400
He has no risk control mechanism. He obviously does not understand the companies in which he invests. How else do you load up on the home-builders and financials at MUCH higher prices, thinking they are "cheap"?

He has no concept of diversification, taking concentrated positions in these companies that he does not understand.

He has no sell discipline. Not only does he ride the losers down, but he buys more and increases the losses!

When Bill Miller gets fired, THEN it may be time to consider buying the financials--when the last person finally realizes the truth about the "legend" they will probably be near a bottom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83264-bill-gross-to-president-obama-double-the-deficit?source=feed#comment-196296 196296 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 22:25:28 -0400