kevinm

Beating the Quants at Their Own Game

Excellent article.

Reversion to the Mean for Equities

Total market cap is a function of stock prices as well as the proportion of companies that are public.

I've never been too fond of this 'indicator,' since it can go up just because more companies are going public, as in the tech IPO boom, and go down during an IPO slow period. How many IPO's are being done now?

Two Economic Triggers for Recovery

And if pigs could fly...

The GOVERNMENT is our last hope!

What happens when the Obama non-stimulus "stimulus" plan fails? Calling a new welfare plan 'tax cuts' and initiating long-tail pork and green projects will NOT pull the economy out of the tailspin!

What happens after the 'stimulus' fails, and we are still left with all the national debt? Then they will compound the error by raising taxes! And, BTW, violating legal mortgage contracts, which will NOT make housing prices go up...

Say Goodbye to a Bear Market Rally after Madoff's Ponzi Scheme

Why the gratuitous Bush bashing? Dems carried the water for Fannie and Freddie. Rubin pulled down obscene salaries while Citi rotted away. Bush tried to reform Social Security, but was shot down. Clinton presided over the tech bubble, but is remembered as having engineered great prosperity...even though it was mostly an illusion...just like the "peace" before 9/11.

At least you are right about the bailouts...

Sentiment Overview: Selling Pressure Still Has the Upper Hand

"Right now selling pressure has the upper hand (after jumping to an extreme level). Until it subsides and buying pressure takes over, the market isn’t going to go up."

Really? Now THAT's the kind of insight I expect when I read Seeking Alpha!

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

Is 2008 exactly like 1982? Or the early 70s?

There were no PCs then. No internet. Communism had not yet fallen, and we were in a Cold War. No China and India opening up and growing rapidly. Is medical technology better now or then? Were there cell phones? Automatic garage door openers?

Yes, things are ugly now, and will be for a while. I am no bullish polyanna. But there is no reason that we have to go to 400 on the S & P just because PEs used to be 8 or that stocks once sold for book value.

It is also true that things happen much faster now than then. The 40% drop we have seen in the past year might have taken five or ten years back then. For that matter, every day presents as many trading opportunities as you would typically get in a month, or three, or a year!

Gloom and doom does no one any good, especially after already taking a 40% hit. And black box magic formulas are more what has gotten the market INTO this trouble than what will help get out.