kevinm

False Data Clobbers the Markets

NBER says payrolls, sales, income and production all peaked in the 4Q 2007. 2Q 2008 S & P 500 earnings look to have been down about 29%--only +3.2% ex financials. Today's report shows that consumer spending was up just 0.2%, but down 0.4% adjusted for inflation.

The GDP report assumes just a 1.2% annual rate of inflation. Let's see, if you assume inflation is REALLY even 4.5%, then growth is actually zero. However, the latest CPI was +5.6% YTY, while the latest PPI was +9.8% YTY...

False Data Clobbers the Markets

Wow! When I first saw the article I thought you meant that the NEW GDP data was false--which is true--but you meant that the OLD, lower number was false. It is laughable to think that the 3.3% growth number is truly reflective of the economy. In fact, in the real world--jobs and income--the economy entered a recession in the fourth quarter of 2007 and any uptick is just an aberration. You'll see in the next 12 mos! And I am a conservative, by the way...