Phiota

Russia's Near Term Is Far from Rosy; Long Term Is Another Story

One long term problem for Russia especially is declining population and with that declining domestic growth.

What Increased U.S. Savings Means for China

I think China's "Buy China" directive will come back to haunt it. They should have just passed the word (to purchase Chinese made products) down the political grapevine instead of making it official.

In a move that's likely to amplify trade tensions and increase the likelihood of protectionism, Beijing unveils a Buy Chinese initiative that will force government agencies to buy local goods and services exclusively. Some are attributing the late-morning / early-afternoon weakness to this story.

This policy will probably be officially reversed in the next few days but in reality it will not be since the message has already been sent and received down the command structure. The local officials will know that it is to their own benefit (politically) to purchase China made goods.

Expat in China

What role do America's lazy pupils and grossly underachieving school system play in shaping the economy? "They still find it hard to believe that all those Chinese students, beavering away at their books, will steal their children's jobs." (The Economist)

As an Expat in China I still find the average American in general is still more capable then the Average Chinese. The average American coming out of high school/college is more developed because of the culture in school/home forces for better or worse the person to grow up sooner. In China the students are told that the only important thing is doing well in school tests and the parents/system "baby" the children up to the last year of school so when they. come out of school they are less prepared to deal with the unstructured/self thinking challenges of the real world. That said the currency ratio between the USD and Yuan is 1:6.8 and in general the wages in the US/China for workers is about the same 1:6.8 ratio. So a chinese person can be much less productive and take longer to develop then an American and still be cost effective.

China's Demographic Bomb -- Is it Investable?

Right now I am seeing more discounting by retailers and more unemployment but much less then what I see that is happening in the states. Most store fronts are still in business and still hard to get a prime location without a transfer fee.

The Chinese government is pumping up the market through the banks and discount/free giveaways of stuff and traveling. In both the reporting on the worldwide recession and the swine flu the media reporting has been extensive and pretty accurate. I think they have learned how to use the reporting that there is worldwide problems to buffer themselves somewhat against the downturn (along with the government/banking stimulus) among the general population (if you see problems worldwide then less likely to blame your government for recession).

The scope of what I am able to see first hand is sort of limited (maybe a good thing) since I am still in the process of starting up my advertising/online business so have limited feedback on how business is now vs before and from clients/customers.

John

China's Demographic Bomb -- Is it Investable?

As China goes from a more Rural/Farming society to a more productive Urban/Manufacturing society not sure if it will offset the decline in population. Not sure how the following can affect investing but as an expat living in China I've also noticed that at least in the big cities those with Blue Collar skills (like Construction, Electrical....) are getting higher wages at least initially vs those with white collar skills. There is too many young people graduating from college with not enough jobs for them even a few years ago when economy was booming.

John

China Real Estate Investing Stands to Benefit from Stimulus Package

As an expat living in China what worries me (from purchasing real estate directly or purchasing a real estate fund) is the ratio between residential rental rates and purchase cost in China. It is much higher ratio then what is in the US or rest of the world.

John

More Terrible Trade Numbers from China

“We just need to boost consumption, whether it’s through domestically made goods or foreign-made goods. We will treat them equally without discrimination. Why in the current climate should we resort to protectionism?”

As an expat living in china for several years the above statement is not true since most if not all foreign made goods are taxed heavily and much more expensive then when purchase in the US and many other countries. As a example it costs about 2 times as much to purchase a Benz/BMW/Porsche in China then in the United States.

John

Voting (and Spending) Our Way to Catastrophe

In a Democratic Government (which is still the best type overall) what is the solution then that will get the general public to support eating the Broccoli?

Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator

In that case bring back:

Germany 26.7

German Swimsuit Models, only drink Pepsi's on Third Sundays of Feb, Wash your Sunday clothing on Wednesdays, Pray that Brazil wins the world cup, China wins Gymnastics in 2009....any others?

Cisco Beats Estimates, Gears Up for 'Technology War'

According to Yahoo Finance

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NMS: CSCO)

After Hours: 15.14 Down 0.70 (4.42%)7:45PM ET

Bonds are More Attractive Than Stocks for Now

Muni Bonds looks good if you think the federal government will bail them out otherwise not so good.

John

Oil: A Slippery Slope Ahead?

Great Analysis.

John

Three Stocks Selling Below Cash With Little Debt

The thing with TRAD is that most of that cash I think belongs to it's customers (its holding it for them) since it is an online stock brokerage. If I am wrong let me know.

Pre-packaged Bankruptcy Is GM's Only Option - Barron's

The Big Three all have the same Union contract that's why all three are all in such big trouble at the exact same time.

John