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The Journey Back to Ctrip

buy before the national Day--Oct 1-7. The post-Olympic travel will be crazy. Business and leisure travel will see a large jump forward and the trend will remain until year end.

Beijing Olympics May Have Negative Impact on Chinese Investments

Ctrip business is solid and growth stable.

Sell the stocks before Olympics is a wise choice. Ctrip and all the online travel booking companies in China will suffer from less business during the Olympics while hotels in Beijing might be the winners.
After the Olympics, Ctrip business will boom. I am sharing with you Chinese people's purchasing behavior. When the price is high and everybody try to avoid it. When they expect low price, they will buy. It doesn't matter whether the price is really low. Post Olympic travel to Beijing will be crazy especially during the National Day holidays from Oct 1 to 7.
And what's more, Ctrip's business is 70-80% business travel. After the Olympics, business travel will pick up fast, so Q4 performance will be pretty good.

Ctrip Earnings Tank Shares: Solid Bounce Candidate Below $57

i am a fun of ctrip. In China you can see it everywhere. At the airport, on the flights, in the shuttlebus, on the radio, in business magazines. The most profitable business for Ctrip is hotel booking. With the largest market share (higher than all smaller competitors added together) Ctrip can get a much higher commission rate than other HRCs.
Risks? Yes.
First of all, the fastest growth of Ctrip is in its airticket booking. Delivery and collection of fares are expensive and the cost is getting higher and higher. The new labor contract law in China favors low income, less insured people who forms Ctrip delivery forces.
Though Chinese customers are using credit card more and more on the internet, but old school business travellers are the last to accept credit card payment and they form a major part of Ctrip members.

Beijing Olympics Investing: Think Travel Stocks

During the Olympics the Beijing hotel rates are generally 3-4 times regular. Home inns and other budget hotels share a rate around 1500 RMB, equals to about 200 dollars. Budget hotels in China are facing fierce competition because of similar products , city coverage and location. At the moment leasing and management is the main trend due to the lack of mature property develop companies.
The biggest risk for Chinese budget hotels is soaring property leasing fees. These hotels and inns must be located near city center due to the lack of leisure travellers and safety issues if the hotels are located in the less populated areas.
ADR (average daily rate) and occupancy are the key to define a healthy hotel operation. If homeinn is boasting 95% occupancy, their profitability is in doubt. Why not operate at 80% with a 20% higher rate. The lower headcount and facilities bills will make the property more profitable. The only reason is that homeinn cannot raise the rate and they must attract franchise opportunities.