Dirk

Lessons of Medicare Dis-Advantage

Simple, keep Medicare advantage, but only pay 100% of Medicare rates. If that means that some insurer drop out, so be it. Sort of an equal protection thing, why should the gov't pay $700 a month for Medicare for one person and $$798 a month for the next door neighbor. Medicare Advantage is bankrupting Medicare, and I think it was deliberately designed to do so by the GOP which has always hated Medicare, and tried to undermine it when ever they got the chance to do so. Next open up regular Medicare to everyone, with people under 65 paying in at actuarial rates based on age only. Those rates should be cost neutral.

Citigroup's Dark Arts

Yeah, a book value that belongs onthe fiction shelf

Why Exxon Should Significantly Increase its Dividend

Buybacks and dividends both return csh to shareholders, but buybacks do it in a more tax efficient way, since you can defer paying capital gains taxes forever (just dont sell) while you have to pay taxed on dividends right away. Just try a thought experiment where every shareholder decided to be part of the DRIP program.

The Link Between Bankruptcies and Health Care Reform

Jack, w/o the stimulus program, 3.5 million people would be without any income (ie people getting extended UE benefits) states would have had to even more dramatcially cut services, same with localities or raised taxes. The Stim has helped a great deal relative to where we would have been. It now looks like we might print a +3.0% GDP growth in the 3Q. Without the stim, a -3.0 would have been more likley. The GOP just blindly says NO to what ever Obama wants, the good of the country be dammed. The emtire party id filled with lunatics that fundimentally hate America. They have also proved time and again that they are hopelessly incompetent at running an economy, see the previous 8 years for proof.

Housing Prices Rebounding

Theresa, that is why I used the seasonally adjusted numbers in the analysis, rather than the NSA data that is usually presented. I agree that we are not totally out of the words on the housing front, but some stabilization is a good sign. The last thing I would expect is a big rebound in prices. Relative to incomes and rents, housing prices are back near normal historical levels, not cheap, but near normal. However incomes are not doing all that well with UE near 10% and still rising, and with near record rental vacancy rates, there is a big risk that rental prices start to slide significantly, re increasing the gap and putting renewed pressure on prices. A second wave of foreclosures (banks have been holding off on FC's even as delinquency rates continue to climb) would also put a lot of pressure on prices. However, the current stabilization of prices might just slow down that second wave of FC's.

Prime Mortgages Are Also Going Sour

Chap08, since I cant post a graph here, go to research.stlouisfed.or... and look at the relationship between housing starts and the end of recessions. One glance and you will see you dont know what you are talking about. Housing has historically lead us into and out of recesssions


On Aug 21 07:04 AM chap08 wrote:

> "Housing is normally the locomotive that pulls the U.S. economy out
> of recessions"
>
> You can't have any evidence for saying that - because there isn't
> any. The evidence is that the rest of the economy drags housing out
> of the slump.

HAMP Is Pretty Much a Failure

So where do you get your news, From Faux?


On Aug 06 01:44 PM ssg13565 wrote:

> And you believe stuff published in the New York Times? Why?
>
> How many times do they have to lie to you to lose your trust?
>
> I am sure that if you tell them, they will be able to exceed that
> number.

Goldman Sachs Pays Off Feds and Buffett

Or how about having someone who was not a GS alum doing the negotiating, have someone who has the best interests of the taxpayer in mind, rather than wanting to help out his old buds. HP is not a dummy, you dont get to be head of GS by being an idiot. It was not intellegence that was in short supply, it was integrity.

Is the Recession Over?

TraderRob, I agree that this is tentative evidence and things could turn around and go the other way, but then again how long do you wait to make a call. Alan, yes there are also mixed signals coming out of Asia, particularly China. However, the collapse of world trade has played a very big part of this decline, and hence a turnaround there would be a big benefit to the U.S. economy.

Also I am not predicting a robust rebound either. But still, this was much sooner than I had been looking for a end of the decline, I had been in the no positive GDP growth until the 4Q and then just barely. However, I can't ignore significant data that does not fit my overall projections. I think given its track record as an indicator the 4wk avg of new claims qualifies as significant.

Six Ways to Cut Our Debt and Advance Obama's Agenda

Agree totally on the drug question, the war on Drugs is the wrong way of looking at it, it is an epidemic of drugs, not a war. On the drilling question here is my compromise. Allow drilling for natural gas, but not oil (at this point). There has been lots of progress over the last few decades making rigs safer, and I assume that will continue. Gas can not spill, and allowing drilling will provide the incentive to get all the seismic work to get done, so we will have an idea of how much is out there. Ten or 15 years from now we can pump the oil. Green tech is a must. Also agree on the legalized internet gambling. However, it is hard to argue that taxes on capital are too high relative to taxes on labor.

Outing AIG's Bonus Babies: What's the Point?

BS. The name of every sex offender is publically available and their names pictures and exact addresses are circulated to the entire neighborhood. Who has done more damage, these guys who have sunk the entire world economy and cost the govt $170 billion, or someone who has fondled a kid? You think sex offenders dont live in fear? But we do it anyways to shae and embarass them. Heck we even print the names of guys who visit prostitutes in the paper. Talk about moral risk if one can blackmail the gov't for millions and not even face reputational risk. Get real!

Shock and Awe: Government Raises Citi Warrants' Strike Price to $20

Absurd, simply talking his book, and extremely bad public policy. Gee, we have not been generous enough to the banks, give me a friggin break.

4 Major Corporations Increasing Dividends

Since BB&T has its piggy lil snout in the TARP slop pail, the term that springs to mind is "fraudulent conveyance"

Fannie and Freddie Are Largely Responsible for the Housing Bubble

Gee, FNM and FRE's market share drops like a rock durring the worst of the housing bubble, partly because of constraints due to their accounting problems, but largely because they required much tougher underwritting standards for mortgages than the crap paper that was packaged by the street (the beloved un fettered free market), and the fall of the housing market is all the fault of a decision made by FDR!

Take your ideological blinders off and actually think before you type.

What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing?

Why in the world would you use a Russell 2000 benchmark and then eliminate stocks belwo $250 million? The Russell 2000 is a small cap index and what is on your screen, Royal Dutch and BP? Talk about using the wrong benchmark. That aside, combining estimate revisions with value is a very worthwhile strategy. However, you should re run your tests with a more reasonable benchmark, Say the Russell 1000 or the S&P 500, using the Russell 2000 makes about as much sense as using the Mubai Sensex as your bogey.