3201JQ

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Wow! Interesting commentary.

BeninEden's viewpoint is very similar to mine. I have to believe that the American brand has been severely oversold. Despite all the fraud and excess of the past 10-15 years, the U.S. has some profound structural advantages that will eventually be reflected in market returns. I'm gratified that my belief that Dr. Copper (through FCX) might eventually lead the way out of the darkness has been justified (at least to date).

It also seems apparent that businesses that must daily compete in global markets have grown more competitive than those that don't. I'm more inclined to invest in technology firms than insurance, biotech than healthcare.

But, what do I know?

Sentinel may be right. In the face of a massive collapse of demand, a commodity like oil, that we've delivered in roughly equivalent annual increases for 100 years, may suddenly quadruple in price (despite the collapse of the over-leveraged shadow investment network) and we'll all be screwed.

I'll take that bet.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Would all of you knuckleheads please shut up about coiled springs and snap-back rallies! All you are doing is wasting your breath trying to speak reason to a panicked mob.

There are a few of us here who, after the drubbing the markets took in November, increased our 401K contributions to the max our companies would match (in my case, 10%) and are quietly building nice positions in what are finally reasonably-priced equities. As the short-sellers drive the prices down and the gold-bugs and doomsayers hoard ammunition, canned goods and gold, I'm able to buy much larger positions in quality, long-lasting companies than those I closed out in Sept-Oct. I've also got enough left over to buy sizable chunks of lottery tickets against the apocalypse (such as FAS, DXO, DAG, UYM). Soon enough, or preferably later if you'd just keep your yap shut, the panicked populace will realize they've once again been played and that its really not all that different this time, just like ALL the other panics and bubbles.

Rally?! It's end times, baby!

Coverage Ratios: What We Can Uncover in the S&P

In a perfect world, this would become the era of the self-financiers. Companies that through attention to growth within self-financed limits were now able to expand into growth areas previously dominated by debt-steroid addicts, now gasping for a fix at the government-funded community methadone clinic.

But it is far from a perfect world.

JQ

20 Comments on the Current Economic Scene

You're killin' me! You raise many interesting points, Seemingly don't have time to flesh them out; your grade must come back "incomplete". You act as if the market will leave you behind. At this point, I wager the market will allow ample opportunity to get onto the train. Just don't expect to get off too soon.

China: Now That's Volatility

...the Hong Kong market, after some of the worst days in its history, suddenly and for reasons I don’t fully understand (probably more to do with technical factors, like short-covering) turned around

The fact that VW had practically overnight become the highest market cap firm in the world may have re-focused short sellers of its (and others) stock(s) minds on the concept of infinite loss rather than day after day of gains.

Brackish Investors and Their Impending Doom

RUN FOR YOUR LIFE, THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

The fluffy meringue of stock valuations that was whipped to a froth by Wall Street sub-prime overleverage has collapsed with the first downdraft.

GET OUT! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN...

What a marroon