lowtechie1

Real Unemployment Closer to 18%: Watch Those Long Positions

A millionnaire investor years ago told me you can take USA stats from the Feds on unemployment and figure the real numbers are about 1.7-2.0 times what is posted. He pointed out that many people who run out of benefits fall off the charts, and they go into a cash society to get by. In Northern California, where we both lived at the time, he siad the 7.3% unemployment in our local county was actually closer to 13-15%. I predict our "published rates" of unemployemnt hit 10% by next fall, and that will indicate closer to 20% in reality. Anything over 8%, folks, and we're in a Depression. Don't fool yourselves. Also, look for about 50% more bad news across the board from public companies before any good news comes out in this country. I predict at least 500-700 public companies will be in bankruptcy that aren't being thought of that way now in January by the time next Fall comes. 2009 stacks up to be a disaster. I've never seen anything like this in 70 years. It is real, it is here, and our bailouts and national debt are adding to the fire. By the way, I am 97% in cash, 3% invested (mostly shorts, I'm sorry to say). Pray for our new leadership.