sabbadoo32

Non-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut?

Dropping rates within the next 75 days won't do a thing. As we all know credit is too tight. Banks don't trust each other, much less the average person on the street. In Chicago, banks are requiring 12-15% down on people with 700 credit scores for car loans. AND that's only if they're not purchasing an SUV.

So lower rates may be a good thing. But it's a wasted effort until someone wants to loan money again.

Which Improves First - The Stock Market or the Economy?

We can "drill here, drill now". There's plenty of leased land available to oil companies to do that. However, there are constraints on man and equipment to do that. Doing some Googling will lead you to oil drilling industry information that tells you boats, derricks exploratory equipment, etc are currently leased through 2010 on existing projects. It's not a democrat trick, it's the fact that the industry is always looking for new oil somewhere.

Personally I believe market bottom will largely coincide with a significant decrease in unsold housing inventories and a stabilization in commercial real estate. Household savings need to rebound, household credit balances need to decrease. Home values need to begin to rise again. When the middle class feels comfortable about spending money again, we'll get our recovery--which should coincide with a stock market rally. These are the things that will lead to a sustained recovery.