BigJake's Comments

Leveraged ETFs: A Seeking Alpha Expert Panel

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:11:56 -0500

What is the reasoning behind recent moves to ban leveraged ETFs besides the fact that people don't actually read the prospectus. Or is that the only reason?

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:05:36 -0400

If Dr. Brett says something is up, we need to take notice. I've been following his blog at traderfeed.blogspot.com since June and have been making a killing. I will be liquidating my positions come Monday come hell or high water and waiting to see what happens.

Federal Reserve Fights Judge to Hide Secrets

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:42:45 -0400

this horse has been beaten dead twice, and taken out behind the barn and shot even more. We all know of the "stealing" that you speak of with respect to the Fed. I would wager to say that it cannot be stopped by you, me or anyone else for that matter so, as investors - how shall we position ourselves to profit from it?

51.68% in 165 Days

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 00:08:47 -0400

If Bernanke has "infinite dollars to play with" as you suggest, why oh why would you not decide to profit from the inflation?

I read the comments on here and I can hear the trauma left over from the collapse last fall. Our brains are hardwired to react this way to trauma and loss. Our brains subconciously tell us - Avoid that painful experience at all costs, look out for it to strike again, expect it to strike again and be ready to avoid it. Millions of years of evolution have made our thought processes react this way to trauma and loss because it was necessary for survival. These still serve a valuable purpose, however it can lead down irrational paths. take Sept. 11th for example. After that trauma our country created the laughable homeland security deparment with the red and green stoplight alerts. It was a giant waste of money and time, but we did it so we would avoid the danger and be ready if it struck again. Had we immediately boycotted oil and set on a course for using some type of energy other than what lies in the middle east we would have already won the "war on terror" because terrorists wouldn't have a pot to piss in. But we missed that opportunity and now look at us. Mired in the morass of being chained to rising oil prices, falling dollar values, and china growing in might. We must be bold, innovative and seize opportunity. Take risks! For otherwise we are left to cower in fear and build defenses while the more adaptable slowly enact our perishment from this earth.

On Aug 22 06:50 PM KSengineer wrote:

> Was there a Goldman Sachs in 1929-1932 with a direct dollar pipeline
> to the Fed? Much of what we see today, IMO, is smoke and mirrors
> designed to make us feel good. In today's America, feeling good is
> more important than reality. Or, perhaps we believe feelings create
> reality.
>
> Japan has languished because they refused to deal with their economic
> colapse according to reality. Aren't we doing exactly the same? Did
> the investors who created this mess lose their money? Not yet. But
> a lot of others have. Have the bad loans been dealt with? Not yet.
> And we all know it. What has happened is the Fed has pumped dollars
> into the "too-big-to-fail" companies (the one's who should of lost
> it all) and the government has handed money to it's citizens to "stimulate"
> things.
>
> Oh yes, and the media has pumped persistently positive news to the
> citizens designed to change moods rather than report fact.
>
> Bernanke thinks he has it figured out. That he can engineer a graceful
> recovery and save the world. I think he's convinced has a lot of
> new tricks up his sleave that will make it different this time. I'm
> just afraid that his power is still inferior to the market's even
> though he has a infinite number of dollars to play with.
>
> And when the market decides to take over once again, look out below.

Beware September?

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 21:31:48 -0400

Sorry mean to say "Richard"... not "s"

On Aug 17 09:30 PM BigJake wrote:

> Richards? Care to clarify the direction of said positions? Short,
> long or is the direction to be kept under hat?

Beware September?

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 21:30:47 -0400

Richards? Care to clarify the direction of said positions? Short, long or is the direction to be kept under hat?

Monetizing Debt: Disinformation in the Blogosphere

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:59:58 -0400

John,

Thank you for writing this piece which clears up the mis-information that is consistently put out there in the blogosphere by those unchecked. It is authors like you who present information in facts rather than opinion that provide a valuable service to the trading & investing community. Bloggers with opinions certainly have a place in the grand scheme of things, but for the average investor it is very difficult to wade through it all to get good information to make decisions with. Thanks again and I hope you put out more articles like this other than your 2X daily articles that I consistently enjoy as well. These help average guys out there like me immensely.

Thanks again Mr. Jansen. Keep up the good work!

Stopped Out of Four Long Positions - Washington Is the Culprit

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:32:23 -0400

Moon,

You should stick to the political blogs when using words like Obamanomics... leaning on politics when making economic decisions is a recipe for introducing political bias into your investing decisions. Making economic decisions on the basis of politics and opinion rather than fact is a good way to find out how to be wrong a lot.

On Aug 06 10:25 PM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> Big Jake: The problem is the government is as arbitray as it always
> is and no one knows when the party will end. That being said Trademarks
> sells are exiting positions that are running counter to the market.
> He is correct that government intervention affects the entire market
> from the point of entry on down.
>
> Thus often what's good for the government entity being saved often
> turns out to be bad for perfectly solvent, fiscally prudent companies.
> Trademark is in the market and profited off the upcycle (most everyone
> has by now), he is just exiting things that don't fit into the Obamanomic
> market model.

Stopped Out of Four Long Positions - Washington Is the Culprit

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:28:13 -0400

Come on guys. If there is a PPT, what is their purpose? To keep themselves in power pulling the levers of power. Exactly how does crashing the stock market keep that equilibrium for the "PPT" or the powers that be? It doesn't. It creates a giant mess and could cause political instability. Not good for the PPT. So, logically things should go up. Not straight up of course because then it would be too obvious and too easy. But the point is, if you wait long enough, its up. I waited out June which was a bull trap and in July they sprung the bear trap. Yes maybe in 7 years we might have another crash, but why not make money while we wait? Seriously, if you think there is a PPT, you should be long for the next few years and you will make money!!!! If you don't believe in a PPT and the market isn't rigged is when we should be ready for anything to change up or down at anytime....

NY Fed Model: No Chance of Recession in 2010

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:34:51 -0400

Cetin is most likely living in his mom's basement with the an ethernet cable embedded into his arm like an IV. He definitely has nothing better to do.

On Aug 06 08:48 PM PainfullyAware wrote:

> Cetin - Did You Hire An Army Or Do You Have Nothing Better To Do?
>
>
> Impressive amount of new "User Names" every day.

Stopped Out of Four Long Positions - Washington Is the Culprit

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:15:04 -0400

I just don't understand. If you are so confident in the plunge protection teams ability to support the market why isn't everyone all in and long? I mean why not make money off a rigged market if you know which way its rigged? No one ever seems to want to answer this question no many how many times I ask it...

Stopped Out of Four Long Positions - Washington Is the Culprit

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:50:37 -0400

Mark - man up. Its easy to blame others for mistakes. In fact, that is the signature move coming out of Washington these days. The only "culprit" is yourself!

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 22:34:19 -0400

Duh. So if you know this why aren't you making a killing shorting the dollar. This is a trading investing site, not a site about whether or not our policy makers are making the correct decisions. Look at the decisions they make and invest accordingly. Why is this so difficult?

On Jul 31 11:10 AM Carlos Lam wrote:
I hate to break it to you, but what the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the President do affects the VALUE of the money that you and "other people" are making. In the long run, if the Fed keeps printing and Congress keeps borrowing, the effect on the U.S. dollar will be disastrous. You may reply that you will not be here when the dollar collapses, but those of us with young children don't necessarily want them re-living a Weimar Republic style currency collapse.
> On Jul 30 12:40 PM BigJake wrote:

Goldman Sachs' 97% Win Percentage Possible but Not Probable

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 22:03:25 -0400

Complaining about conspiracy theories is futile in two ways.

#1 - it is not possible to disprove something that hasn't occurred

and most importantly

#2 - it does not make one any money.

Ask yourself. If you are convinced that GS controls the market and it pushing it up and down at will, why not use that information and profit from it. Ride the waves. They are going up for a few more years because it would not be in the powers that be's interest that another hideous crash occur due to the instability that would bring to their grip on power. It won't travel in a straight line, but it will be obvious when the crest falls and the trough turns up.

A Reality Check on U.S. 'Economic Recovery'

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 10:33:40 -0400

It is human nature to believe one is correct, one is RIGHT. one CANNOT BE WRONG!!! If you can accept that maybe what you say will happen and maybe it won't then you will be nimble enough to either avoid the impending disaster or ride the relation wave. If you become married to one particular idea, you are only giving yourself a 50/50 chance of being successful. I don't like those odds!

The Macro Economic Reports Indicator: Not a Good Omen

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:33:03 -0400

Have you bought any AR-15's yet? Those will be worth alot if the situation you describe unfolds.

On Jul 30 12:14 PM the rabble wrote:

> "Also when the sales do return as the consumer driven market is emboldened
> by a higher stock market"
>
> What planet did you crash in from. ? Here let me talk like an idiot.
> Where are the jobs that are going to "embolden" the consumer. Walk
> into any Wally world and take a look around. Mfg capacity is at what
> in the US 68% ? When the embolded consumer does any sales spurring
> where do you think the "bulk" of that stimulus is going to go. ?
> Take a look at the freight (rail and truck) numbers.
> How about personal income and factory work hours per employee.
Em...
> Personal assets (housing ?). Consumer confidence index. Exports.
> National debt. State finances. The only thing the consumer is going
> to get embolded to do by watching the stock market is hang the bankers
> and overthrow the govenment. Remember what that wise French revolutinary
> said..."when people get desperate, mad and hungry they do bad things."
> Trust me... this has'nt even started yet.

A Reality Check on U.S. 'Economic Recovery'

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:23:16 -0400

I have to agree with Thiazole. I mean in all seriousness, Jeff is right here things are much worse than they were in "normal" times. But in normal times the Dow was around 13k... So I'd have to argue all his points about why the economy is so bad is already baked into stock prices. That said, he might be right, we might tank again if alt arm resets swamp banks, etc... because things aren't great and unemployment is getting higher and higher. BUT - until that happens or until were in boom times again I'd advise against being a permabear or a permabull since it almost guarnatees that you'll be wrong at some point. Its the same as being a Republican or Democrat - you guarantee that you will be wrong at some point if you join a side. If you don't and keep an open mind you at least have a chance to be right all of the time (even though we all know that never happens).... Be flexible in your views of where the economy is heading now and place your bets with tight stops! Once I learned this, I turned my account around which had suffered a 50% drawdown!!!

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 12:40:11 -0400

I hate to say it but, quit whining about politics and make money - quite a few other people are doing it.

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:47:09 -0400

I dunno seeing I was ready to buy AR-15's instead of stocks back in feb. for future investment opportunity he's been doing okay recently... :)

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:27:33 -0400

I was down $4k as well, but once I understood how to use them (see Ryans comment on trading on short/intermediate term trends lasting a few weeks) I made back $2k of it in no time. The main reason why I lost the $4k at first was because I didn't really know how to use them and would switch back and forth at tops of trends for both the inverse and non inverse leveraged products. Currently playing in ERX...

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:21:43 -0400

You guys are letting your political and economic biases get in the way of making money. I don't necessarily disagree with your long term economic assumptions, but nothing ever travels in a straight line.

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:24:42 -0400

me too. its ok to hold them for more than 1 day... several months though with huge amounts of volatility?? nooooo good!

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:19:24 -0400

Charles, why oh why didn't I have you on my follow list when my head was buried in the sand march - june? Anyways, thanks for the concise explanation of these two bull/bear arguments.

New York Fed Model: No Chance of Recession in 2010

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:30:13 -0400

Jeff I have to agree with you. I discovered this site shortly after the giant meltdown and could not be convinced that we were anywhere else besides about to be planting seeds, selling liquor, and hoarding weapons. I overreacted, which in retrospect is probably a normal human reaction to the events that occurred. While I'm not sure we will come out of this squeaky clean, the evidence that a recovery may already be well underway is clear and it is before our eyes. Yes, there could be a bump or two along the way, or something could come out of the blue to reverse the whole process and put me back into my survival bunker, but until then - its time to try to make money by using the DATA given to us and check our biases and political leanings at the door.

On Jul 22 10:44 PM Jeff Miller wrote:

> This is interesting. The author cites actual data on a topic of
> interest and explains it in an objective fashion.
>
> It is another piece of an economic puzzle that we all hope to understand.
>
>
> There may be many readers -- I hope so -- who accepted the information
> and added it to their own personal analysis.
>
> Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha Commentariat condemns the conclusion
> -- pretty much without rationale except for disagreement -- and the
> readers who bother to rate the comments give them all "thumbs up."
>
>
> This is the definition of confirmation bias. Mark provides a good
> source of information, especially if you want some balance from Zero,
> and the wannabees on SA.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:00:54 -0400

Touche' Mark. Perhaps some have been bought, and if they have are they going to push stocks down or are they going to keep playing the game over and over and OVER again. I think you may have inadvertentley proven my point!

On Jul 08 02:48 PM Mark Bern wrote:

> Because manipulation can go both ways. Only those in control know
> what HAL will do next. BTW, if I read your comment grammatically
> correctly, I do agree that, yes, some folk have been bought.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:52:17 -0400

I'm just saying, if you think HAL is trading a certain way, stop complaining and trade with him...

On Jul 07 09:04 AM daniel3582 wrote:

> On Jul 07 08:34 AM BigJake wrote:

Earnings Beat Rate off the Charts

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:44:19 -0400

whether the earnings estimates are low balled or high balled, if they are beaten, theoretically the price of the stock should go up if the conquered earning estimate is not pre-priced into the stock. Its not rocket science or a descontruction of the JFK assassination people...

News Flash! Goldman Sachs in Talks for Blockbuster Deal

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 22:45:07 -0400

Look its not that I don't agree, but how many times can Sisiphyus roll a rock up a hill only to see it roll back down and repeat the process? This is the way it is. Get on board the train and make money folks. in 7 years go short and catch the next collapse, its not in anyone's interests, GS, US treasury, me or you that we take another huge stock market hit...until then hang on for the ride.

Accounting Tricks Dominate Bank Reports

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:07:11 -0400

might as well make money on the way up. We can't stop it - might as well profit...

Bond Expert: Thursday Wrap

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:07:01 -0400

Mr. J? Is that kind of like Dr. J, but for bond investing?