BigJake

The Macro Economic Reports Indicator: Not a Good Omen

Have you bought any AR-15's yet? Those will be worth alot if the situation you describe unfolds.


On Jul 30 12:14 PM the rabble wrote:

> "Also when the sales do return as the consumer driven market is emboldened
> by a higher stock market"
>
> What planet did you crash in from. ? Here let me talk like an idiot.
> Where are the jobs that are going to "embolden" the consumer. Walk
> into any Wally world and take a look around. Mfg capacity is at what
> in the US 68% ? When the embolded consumer does any sales spurring
> where do you think the "bulk" of that stimulus is going to go. ?
> Take a look at the freight (rail and truck) numbers.
> How about personal income and factory work hours per employee.<br/>Em...
> Personal assets (housing ?). Consumer confidence index. Exports.
> National debt. State finances. The only thing the consumer is going
> to get embolded to do by watching the stock market is hang the bankers
> and overthrow the govenment. Remember what that wise French revolutinary
> said..."when people get desperate, mad and hungry they do bad things."
> Trust me... this has'nt even started yet.

A Reality Check on U.S. 'Economic Recovery'

I have to agree with Thiazole. I mean in all seriousness, Jeff is right here things are much worse than they were in "normal" times. But in normal times the Dow was around 13k... So I'd have to argue all his points about why the economy is so bad is already baked into stock prices. That said, he might be right, we might tank again if alt arm resets swamp banks, etc... because things aren't great and unemployment is getting higher and higher. BUT - until that happens or until were in boom times again I'd advise against being a permabear or a permabull since it almost guarnatees that you'll be wrong at some point. Its the same as being a Republican or Democrat - you guarantee that you will be wrong at some point if you join a side. If you don't and keep an open mind you at least have a chance to be right all of the time (even though we all know that never happens).... Be flexible in your views of where the economy is heading now and place your bets with tight stops! Once I learned this, I turned my account around which had suffered a 50% drawdown!!!

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

I hate to say it but, quit whining about politics and make money - quite a few other people are doing it.

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

I dunno seeing I was ready to buy AR-15's instead of stocks back in feb. for future investment opportunity he's been doing okay recently... :)

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

I was down $4k as well, but once I understood how to use them (see Ryans comment on trading on short/intermediate term trends lasting a few weeks) I made back $2k of it in no time. The main reason why I lost the $4k at first was because I didn't really know how to use them and would switch back and forth at tops of trends for both the inverse and non inverse leveraged products. Currently playing in ERX...

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

You guys are letting your political and economic biases get in the way of making money. I don't necessarily disagree with your long term economic assumptions, but nothing ever travels in a straight line.

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

me too. its ok to hold them for more than 1 day... several months though with huge amounts of volatility?? nooooo good!

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

Charles, why oh why didn't I have you on my follow list when my head was buried in the sand march - june? Anyways, thanks for the concise explanation of these two bull/bear arguments.

New York Fed Model: No Chance of Recession in 2010

Jeff I have to agree with you. I discovered this site shortly after the giant meltdown and could not be convinced that we were anywhere else besides about to be planting seeds, selling liquor, and hoarding weapons. I overreacted, which in retrospect is probably a normal human reaction to the events that occurred. While I'm not sure we will come out of this squeaky clean, the evidence that a recovery may already be well underway is clear and it is before our eyes. Yes, there could be a bump or two along the way, or something could come out of the blue to reverse the whole process and put me back into my survival bunker, but until then - its time to try to make money by using the DATA given to us and check our biases and political leanings at the door.


On Jul 22 10:44 PM Jeff Miller wrote:

> This is interesting. The author cites actual data on a topic of
> interest and explains it in an objective fashion.
>
> It is another piece of an economic puzzle that we all hope to understand.
>
>
> There may be many readers -- I hope so -- who accepted the information
> and added it to their own personal analysis.
>
> Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha Commentariat condemns the conclusion
> -- pretty much without rationale except for disagreement -- and the
> readers who bother to rate the comments give them all "thumbs up."
>
>
> This is the definition of confirmation bias. Mark provides a good
> source of information, especially if you want some balance from Zero,
> and the wannabees on SA.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Touche' Mark. Perhaps some have been bought, and if they have are they going to push stocks down or are they going to keep playing the game over and over and OVER again. I think you may have inadvertentley proven my point!


On Jul 08 02:48 PM Mark Bern wrote:

> Because manipulation can go both ways. Only those in control know
> what HAL will do next. BTW, if I read your comment grammatically
> correctly, I do agree that, yes, some folk have been bought.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I'm just saying, if you think HAL is trading a certain way, stop complaining and trade with him...


On Jul 07 09:04 AM daniel3582 wrote:

> On Jul 07 08:34 AM BigJake wrote:

Earnings Beat Rate off the Charts

whether the earnings estimates are low balled or high balled, if they are beaten, theoretically the price of the stock should go up if the conquered earning estimate is not pre-priced into the stock. Its not rocket science or a descontruction of the JFK assassination people...

News Flash! Goldman Sachs in Talks for Blockbuster Deal

Look its not that I don't agree, but how many times can Sisiphyus roll a rock up a hill only to see it roll back down and repeat the process? This is the way it is. Get on board the train and make money folks. in 7 years go short and catch the next collapse, its not in anyone's interests, GS, US treasury, me or you that we take another huge stock market hit...until then hang on for the ride.

Accounting Tricks Dominate Bank Reports

might as well make money on the way up. We can't stop it - might as well profit...

Bond Expert: Thursday Wrap

Mr. J? Is that kind of like Dr. J, but for bond investing?