BigJake

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

If Dr. Brett says something is up, we need to take notice. I've been following his blog at traderfeed.blogspot.com since June and have been making a killing. I will be liquidating my positions come Monday come hell or high water and waiting to see what happens.

51.68% in 165 Days

If Bernanke has "infinite dollars to play with" as you suggest, why oh why would you not decide to profit from the inflation?

I read the comments on here and I can hear the trauma left over from the collapse last fall. Our brains are hardwired to react this way to trauma and loss. Our brains subconciously tell us - Avoid that painful experience at all costs, look out for it to strike again, expect it to strike again and be ready to avoid it. Millions of years of evolution have made our thought processes react this way to trauma and loss because it was necessary for survival. These still serve a valuable purpose, however it can lead down irrational paths. take Sept. 11th for example. After that trauma our country created the laughable homeland security deparment with the red and green stoplight alerts. It was a giant waste of money and time, but we did it so we would avoid the danger and be ready if it struck again. Had we immediately boycotted oil and set on a course for using some type of energy other than what lies in the middle east we would have already won the "war on terror" because terrorists wouldn't have a pot to piss in. But we missed that opportunity and now look at us. Mired in the morass of being chained to rising oil prices, falling dollar values, and china growing in might. We must be bold, innovative and seize opportunity. Take risks! For otherwise we are left to cower in fear and build defenses while the more adaptable slowly enact our perishment from this earth.


On Aug 22 06:50 PM KSengineer wrote:

> Was there a Goldman Sachs in 1929-1932 with a direct dollar pipeline
> to the Fed? Much of what we see today, IMO, is smoke and mirrors
> designed to make us feel good. In today's America, feeling good is
> more important than reality. Or, perhaps we believe feelings create
> reality.
>
> Japan has languished because they refused to deal with their economic
> colapse according to reality. Aren't we doing exactly the same? Did
> the investors who created this mess lose their money? Not yet. But
> a lot of others have. Have the bad loans been dealt with? Not yet.
> And we all know it. What has happened is the Fed has pumped dollars
> into the "too-big-to-fail" companies (the one's who should of lost
> it all) and the government has handed money to it's citizens to "stimulate"
> things.
>
> Oh yes, and the media has pumped persistently positive news to the
> citizens designed to change moods rather than report fact.
>
> Bernanke thinks he has it figured out. That he can engineer a graceful
> recovery and save the world. I think he's convinced has a lot of
> new tricks up his sleave that will make it different this time. I'm
> just afraid that his power is still inferior to the market's even
> though he has a infinite number of dollars to play with.
>
> And when the market decides to take over once again, look out below.

NY Fed Model: No Chance of Recession in 2010

Cetin is most likely living in his mom's basement with the an ethernet cable embedded into his arm like an IV. He definitely has nothing better to do.


On Aug 06 08:48 PM PainfullyAware wrote:

> Cetin - Did You Hire An Army Or Do You Have Nothing Better To Do?
>
>
> Impressive amount of new "User Names" every day.

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

Duh. So if you know this why aren't you making a killing shorting the dollar. This is a trading investing site, not a site about whether or not our policy makers are making the correct decisions. Look at the decisions they make and invest accordingly. Why is this so difficult?


On Jul 31 11:10 AM Carlos Lam wrote:
I hate to break it to you, but what the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the President do affects the VALUE of the money that you and "other people" are making. In the long run, if the Fed keeps printing and Congress keeps borrowing, the effect on the U.S. dollar will be disastrous. You may reply that you will not be here when the dollar collapses, but those of us with young children don't necessarily want them re-living a Weimar Republic style currency collapse.
> On Jul 30 12:40 PM BigJake wrote:

A Reality Check on U.S. 'Economic Recovery'

It is human nature to believe one is correct, one is RIGHT. one CANNOT BE WRONG!!! If you can accept that maybe what you say will happen and maybe it won't then you will be nimble enough to either avoid the impending disaster or ride the relation wave. If you become married to one particular idea, you are only giving yourself a 50/50 chance of being successful. I don't like those odds!

The Macro Economic Reports Indicator: Not a Good Omen

Have you bought any AR-15's yet? Those will be worth alot if the situation you describe unfolds.


On Jul 30 12:14 PM the rabble wrote:

> "Also when the sales do return as the consumer driven market is emboldened
> by a higher stock market"
>
> What planet did you crash in from. ? Here let me talk like an idiot.
> Where are the jobs that are going to "embolden" the consumer. Walk
> into any Wally world and take a look around. Mfg capacity is at what
> in the US 68% ? When the embolded consumer does any sales spurring
> where do you think the "bulk" of that stimulus is going to go. ?
> Take a look at the freight (rail and truck) numbers.
> How about personal income and factory work hours per employee.<br/>Em...
> Personal assets (housing ?). Consumer confidence index. Exports.
> National debt. State finances. The only thing the consumer is going
> to get embolded to do by watching the stock market is hang the bankers
> and overthrow the govenment. Remember what that wise French revolutinary
> said..."when people get desperate, mad and hungry they do bad things."
> Trust me... this has'nt even started yet.

A Reality Check on U.S. 'Economic Recovery'

I have to agree with Thiazole. I mean in all seriousness, Jeff is right here things are much worse than they were in "normal" times. But in normal times the Dow was around 13k... So I'd have to argue all his points about why the economy is so bad is already baked into stock prices. That said, he might be right, we might tank again if alt arm resets swamp banks, etc... because things aren't great and unemployment is getting higher and higher. BUT - until that happens or until were in boom times again I'd advise against being a permabear or a permabull since it almost guarnatees that you'll be wrong at some point. Its the same as being a Republican or Democrat - you guarantee that you will be wrong at some point if you join a side. If you don't and keep an open mind you at least have a chance to be right all of the time (even though we all know that never happens).... Be flexible in your views of where the economy is heading now and place your bets with tight stops! Once I learned this, I turned my account around which had suffered a 50% drawdown!!!

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

I hate to say it but, quit whining about politics and make money - quite a few other people are doing it.

Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Again

I dunno seeing I was ready to buy AR-15's instead of stocks back in feb. for future investment opportunity he's been doing okay recently... :)

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

You guys are letting your political and economic biases get in the way of making money. I don't necessarily disagree with your long term economic assumptions, but nothing ever travels in a straight line.

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

Charles, why oh why didn't I have you on my follow list when my head was buried in the sand march - june? Anyways, thanks for the concise explanation of these two bull/bear arguments.

New York Fed Model: No Chance of Recession in 2010

Jeff I have to agree with you. I discovered this site shortly after the giant meltdown and could not be convinced that we were anywhere else besides about to be planting seeds, selling liquor, and hoarding weapons. I overreacted, which in retrospect is probably a normal human reaction to the events that occurred. While I'm not sure we will come out of this squeaky clean, the evidence that a recovery may already be well underway is clear and it is before our eyes. Yes, there could be a bump or two along the way, or something could come out of the blue to reverse the whole process and put me back into my survival bunker, but until then - its time to try to make money by using the DATA given to us and check our biases and political leanings at the door.


On Jul 22 10:44 PM Jeff Miller wrote:

> This is interesting. The author cites actual data on a topic of
> interest and explains it in an objective fashion.
>
> It is another piece of an economic puzzle that we all hope to understand.
>
>
> There may be many readers -- I hope so -- who accepted the information
> and added it to their own personal analysis.
>
> Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha Commentariat condemns the conclusion
> -- pretty much without rationale except for disagreement -- and the
> readers who bother to rate the comments give them all "thumbs up."
>
>
> This is the definition of confirmation bias. Mark provides a good
> source of information, especially if you want some balance from Zero,
> and the wannabees on SA.

Earnings Beat Rate off the Charts

whether the earnings estimates are low balled or high balled, if they are beaten, theoretically the price of the stock should go up if the conquered earning estimate is not pre-priced into the stock. Its not rocket science or a descontruction of the JFK assassination people...

Looking for a Transition

They don't post your stuff fast enough Brett. You should plug your blog website. That thing is awesome for technical analysis

Telltale Signs That a Significant Correction Isn't Imminent

I've been burned enough on the short side since march. If you can't beat 'em join em.