San_Fran_Sam

Could the Dow Fall to 1600?

I have just one word for all of you: Nikkei

the Nikkei is now back down to the level it was at in 1982!

and it took about 20 years.

so Dow below 1000 as it was in 1982 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Why Apple Has Risen from a Technical Analysis Perspective

Zach -- Good analysis. couple of comments though.

1. You could have written this same article in late November when AAPL bottomed at about $79. RSI and MACD both diverging. Only to ride AAPL up to about $105 and back down again to $78.

2. What is your comment on AAPL now? Looks to me like a double top or at lease resistance at $105. also the RSI is looking overbought and MACD is weakening.

SFS

Is SDS a Way Around Market Volatility?

Davboz, Jonas --

You're right. i sent this thing off before reading the whole post thoroughly. He does mention the tracking error problem towards the end of the article.

My bad.

Is SDS a Way Around Market Volatility?

Better do your research kid. If i understand the pitfalls of the Ultrashort ETFs, it is that volatility kills you. There have been two posts on this subject at SA in the last two days.

They perform as adverstised, 2-for-1, only on an intraday basis.

Why Am I Buying Lennar? No Good Reason

Wow. At least your reasoning is honest. Unlike a lot of the usual B******t that gets tossed around.

good luck with your trade.

Treasuries Will Disappoint- Continued

I would just add that there is no reason to take an all or nothing approach to shorting LT Treasuries. The article mentions one vehicle that i am keeping an eye on, namely, TBT. There is also an ETF that is ultrashort the medium term Treasuries, PST.

I have a small position in TBT, about 25% of what i plan to invest, read speculate, in. When it becomes more clear that the bubble is bursting i will add to the position.

During the summer i went both short and long oil because i wasn't sure how when the bubble would burst. I lost a little on the long, but more than made up for it on the short.

Crash Confidence Looks Bullish

Two points on this survey....

I am not crazy about the negative wording of the question. If 22.7% of the respondents belive that there will not be a crash in the next six months, does that mean that 77.3% believe that there will be a crash?

What is the definition of a crash? Would a grinding out 1-day up/2-days down move for six months be a crash? If not, we could end up just as far down as if there were a similar move over a few days.

11 Stocks Selling Below Cash

I would think that you would also want to look at the change in cash over time. they may have a lot now, but how about 6 months from now.

Economy Plunging to 33 Year Low?

I am drawing an additional conclusion from the graph. Notice that with a few exceptions whenever the WLI has dipped below 0, there has been a recession. The exceptions of 1987 and 1998 i believe are related to the connection between the WLI and the stock market as these tie to the 87 crash and the 98 LTCM crisis.

That in mind, the WLI has been negative for over a year now. But no declared recession.

My conclusion is that the reported economic statistics upon which recessions are based are distorted. That we have been in a recession for at least six months if not longer.

Earnings Preview: Apple

If Jimbo said sell, that's a good enough reason for me not to.

How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s 'Lost Decade' - And How to Play it

Now would that be your Democratic Pary socialists or your Republican Party socialists?

How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution

You asked some really good questions here regarding from which sector and which stocks the decline will come from to get the next 20-30% drop in the SP500 or the Dow.

But you left out one very obvious possibility. It doesn't have to come from any one stock or any one sector. Isn't possible that they could ALL drop by 20% more or less to take the averages down?

Oil and the Futures Market

you tell 'em ThinkBig. After the revolution, let's first kill all of the lawyers.