San_Fran_Sam

Could the Dow Fall to 1600?

I have just one word for all of you: Nikkei

the Nikkei is now back down to the level it was at in 1982!

and it took about 20 years.

so Dow below 1000 as it was in 1982 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Economy Plunging to 33 Year Low?

I am drawing an additional conclusion from the graph. Notice that with a few exceptions whenever the WLI has dipped below 0, there has been a recession. The exceptions of 1987 and 1998 i believe are related to the connection between the WLI and the stock market as these tie to the 87 crash and the 98 LTCM crisis.

That in mind, the WLI has been negative for over a year now. But no declared recession.

My conclusion is that the reported economic statistics upon which recessions are based are distorted. That we have been in a recession for at least six months if not longer.