pldragon

China: PPI Inflation and Trade Surplus Higher Than Expected

"These kinds of numbers would seem to strengthen the skepticism that analysts like CFE’s Brad Setser have expressed over the story of China’s collapsing export sector...."
Hi Michael,
The trade surplus rose sharply ONLY in July. I am not a fortune-teller, but this weird increase in my opinion can be attributed only to the fear of the western buyers about the potential big mess on shipments for Xmas, starting in August and September.
I have read some similar views on some other blogs such as "All roads leadto China" and the excellent "China Law blog"...
After the debacle of the visas policy for businessmen unable to come perform factories visits and orders inspections, after the tightening of Beijibg area about goods circulation, etc, and without talking about other factors (terrorist threats, exporters forex controls....), I think it is fair to think that many exporters have shipped their Xmas goods much earlier than last year.
Now we have to see what numbers will come out in September.... If they are strong too, well, then I am a dumb guy. ^__^