Saj Karsan's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/222127/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/180534/comments?source=feed#comment-829165 829165 Fri, 01 Jan 2010 15:30:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175294/comments?source=feed#comment-781872 781872
The investment horizon of my fund is of a long-term nature. As such, short-term cyclical issues are not a major concern. Instead, they create an opportunity, as prices come down for temporary problems, allowing the long-term investor to take advantage.


On Nov 26 01:35 PM Ankit Gupta wrote:

> Have you noticed that 154 of their 227 US locations are in Florida?
> Does that concern you at all?
>
> Florida's markets have been hit pretty hard and so do you have any
> concerns about those locations not doing so well?]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:08:06 -0500
The investment horizon of my fund is of a long-term nature. As such, short-term cyclical issues are not a major concern. Instead, they create an opportunity, as prices come down for temporary problems, allowing the long-term investor to take advantage.


On Nov 26 01:35 PM Ankit Gupta wrote:

> Have you noticed that 154 of their 227 US locations are in Florida?
> Does that concern you at all?
>
> Florida's markets have been hit pretty hard and so do you have any
> concerns about those locations not doing so well?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174991/comments?source=feed#comment-781869 781869
please note that i did not value iplex at 0. my point is that the cash balance does not constitute a margin of safety, since the company expects to "incur significant additional losses for at least the next several years". although it's not clear from this particular article, my articles look at investing from a value investing point of view. i understand that this point of the cash margin of safety is not so obvious without that context in mind.]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:04:57 -0500
please note that i did not value iplex at 0. my point is that the cash balance does not constitute a margin of safety, since the company expects to "incur significant additional losses for at least the next several years". although it's not clear from this particular article, my articles look at investing from a value investing point of view. i understand that this point of the cash margin of safety is not so obvious without that context in mind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174991/comments?source=feed#comment-779885 779885 www.barelkarsan.com/20...]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:27:24 -0500 www.barelkarsan.com/20...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169371/comments?source=feed#comment-741616 741616
At the current rate of procedures, management expects the cash to last beyond 2012. I agree they would have some problems if they get only half of that number of procedures as you say, but we disagree on the likelihood of that happening.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:30:08 -0500
At the current rate of procedures, management expects the cash to last beyond 2012. I agree they would have some problems if they get only half of that number of procedures as you say, but we disagree on the likelihood of that happening.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168979/comments?source=feed#comment-738571 738571
It is RCL, but it trades on the Toronto Exchange. Seeking Alpha replaces my links to the google finance pages with their own, and in this case their link now points to RC Cruises as you point out. Here is the google finance page: www.google.com/finance...]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 14:34:57 -0400
It is RCL, but it trades on the Toronto Exchange. Seeking Alpha replaces my links to the google finance pages with their own, and in this case their link now points to RC Cruises as you point out. Here is the google finance page: www.google.com/finance...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166623/comments?source=feed#comment-716543 716543 Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:40:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163168/comments?source=feed#comment-689657 689657 Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:57:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161929/comments?source=feed#comment-681073 681073 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 13:49:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159215/comments?source=feed#comment-658416 658416
If they add more PP&E, you can adjust the PP&E used in the calculation.]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 12:01:07 -0400
If they add more PP&E, you can adjust the PP&E used in the calculation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153676/comments?source=feed#comment-615544 615544
It is merely educational in nature. Popular media outlets rarely discuss inventory levels (preferring to focus on sales levels) and also do not put current numbers in their historical context (other than comparing them to levels of one month or one year ago, that is). Furthermore, the article notes that a revenue bounce can be expected for auto parts suppliers, since outputs were cut more than sales have depressed.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:55:05 -0400
It is merely educational in nature. Popular media outlets rarely discuss inventory levels (preferring to focus on sales levels) and also do not put current numbers in their historical context (other than comparing them to levels of one month or one year ago, that is). Furthermore, the article notes that a revenue bounce can be expected for auto parts suppliers, since outputs were cut more than sales have depressed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149462/comments?source=feed#comment-607161 607161
Sorry for the late reply.

While you are right that AIRT has thrived in the past despite having these risks, this does not mean the risks do not exist going forward.

As an example, consider Escalade, which recently had a 30-year relationship with Sears cut short all of a sudden. Article here: www.barelkarsan.com/20...]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:21:43 -0400
Sorry for the late reply.

While you are right that AIRT has thrived in the past despite having these risks, this does not mean the risks do not exist going forward.

As an example, consider Escalade, which recently had a 30-year relationship with Sears cut short all of a sudden. Article here: www.barelkarsan.com/20...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151030/comments?source=feed#comment-601259 601259
Unfortunately, those google ads provide a good portion of my revenue. Still, it's probably better to have those ads and have the content of the site warning readers to do their homework, rather than have no ads but have the content of the site be paid promotions.

I have readers asking me for advice on stocks all the time, and since I can hardly be the only blogger that gets asked, it seems only prudent to warn readers who weren't around back when you wised up.]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:07:36 -0400
Unfortunately, those google ads provide a good portion of my revenue. Still, it's probably better to have those ads and have the content of the site warning readers to do their homework, rather than have no ads but have the content of the site be paid promotions.

I have readers asking me for advice on stocks all the time, and since I can hardly be the only blogger that gets asked, it seems only prudent to warn readers who weren't around back when you wised up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150695/comments?source=feed#comment-600229 600229
You're right that LPG is more stable, but spot rates have still fallen. The point of the article is that there is no cash to return to shareholders due to high borrowing and commitments for new ships (which cannot be cancelled per the company's 20-F filing).]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:38:48 -0400
You're right that LPG is more stable, but spot rates have still fallen. The point of the article is that there is no cash to return to shareholders due to high borrowing and commitments for new ships (which cannot be cancelled per the company's 20-F filing).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149462/comments?source=feed#comment-598994 598994
I did not respond to most of your comments because they were not relevant to the article. The article is about AIRT's revenue risks. I'm not telling investors that AIRT is a bad investment; in fact, I mentioned its strong profitability, its dividend yield, and suggested it could turn out to be a terrific long-term investment. But investors should know what they are buying, and so understanding the risks is important and a frequently discussed theme on my site.

By the way, your statement regarding the previous AF contracts is also false. The current contract just announced last week is indeed subject to annual cancellation, but the previous contracts were for 4 years, 3 years and 3 years, so that situation has become more risky.]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 02:41:59 -0400
I did not respond to most of your comments because they were not relevant to the article. The article is about AIRT's revenue risks. I'm not telling investors that AIRT is a bad investment; in fact, I mentioned its strong profitability, its dividend yield, and suggested it could turn out to be a terrific long-term investment. But investors should know what they are buying, and so understanding the risks is important and a frequently discussed theme on my site.

By the way, your statement regarding the previous AF contracts is also false. The current contract just announced last week is indeed subject to annual cancellation, but the previous contracts were for 4 years, 3 years and 3 years, so that situation has become more risky.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149462/comments?source=feed#comment-594309 594309
Thanks for your comments.

Sorry about not mentioning the most recently announced AF contract. Between the time I wrote the article and scheduled it for publishing, the contract was announced. However, it should be noted that the contract can be cancelled after one year, so the revenue risks discussed in the article, both related to that contract and related to the other segments, still remain going forward.]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 18:49:30 -0400
Thanks for your comments.

Sorry about not mentioning the most recently announced AF contract. Between the time I wrote the article and scheduled it for publishing, the contract was announced. However, it should be noted that the contract can be cancelled after one year, so the revenue risks discussed in the article, both related to that contract and related to the other segments, still remain going forward.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123544/comments?source=feed#comment-574078 574078 Sat, 04 Jul 2009 17:54:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144748/comments?source=feed#comment-567860 567860 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 22:44:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144748/comments?source=feed#comment-567408 567408
As value investors, we look to identify downside risk. You are right that the stock appears cheap, but the point of the article (within the context of its original appearance on our blog) is that compared to an equally cheap looking stock, a company reliant on only a few customers is more of a risk than a company with several customers.]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:35:00 -0400
As value investors, we look to identify downside risk. You are right that the stock appears cheap, but the point of the article (within the context of its original appearance on our blog) is that compared to an equally cheap looking stock, a company reliant on only a few customers is more of a risk than a company with several customers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142456/comments?source=feed#comment-541572 541572
The data is available from the NYSE:

www.nyxdata.com/nyseda...]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:58:18 -0400
The data is available from the NYSE:

www.nyxdata.com/nyseda...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141980/comments?source=feed#comment-539112 539112
You're absolutely right, you have to watch for that on the earnings side. This was more about the balance sheet tho.

PS Note also that due to taxes the earnings would have increased by more like $14 mill using your numbers.]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:53:05 -0400
You're absolutely right, you have to watch for that on the earnings side. This was more about the balance sheet tho.

PS Note also that due to taxes the earnings would have increased by more like $14 mill using your numbers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140050/comments?source=feed#comment-522042 522042
That would certainly be a concern for the future for US based companies, but this is not one of them.]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 18:04:58 -0400
That would certainly be a concern for the future for US based companies, but this is not one of them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138018/comments?source=feed#comment-510215 510215 Tue, 19 May 2009 15:44:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137853/comments?source=feed#comment-505568 505568 Fri, 15 May 2009 13:48:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137409/comments?source=feed#comment-504746 504746 Fri, 15 May 2009 01:05:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128115/comments?source=feed#comment-443041 443041
You are right that debt can be a burden in times like these. As such, all the stocks I generally prefer have little to no debt]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 21:03:19 -0400
You are right that debt can be a burden in times like these. As such, all the stocks I generally prefer have little to no debt]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127022/comments?source=feed#comment-437521 437521
This is where I grabbed it from: www.nyxdata.com/nyseda...]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 21:54:04 -0400
This is where I grabbed it from: www.nyxdata.com/nyseda...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127232/comments?source=feed#comment-437306 437306 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 18:11:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125155/comments?source=feed#comment-429734 429734
You are right, the chances of a problem are quite low. However, what is not clear when SA picks up one of my articles is that my site is devoted to finding very low risk companies, and so the risks to PCAR were being highlighted in that context.

Your question about customers that can have an adverse impact is a good one; unfortunately, I was unable to find disclosure on this from PCAR. It would be nice to see the percentage of finance receivables outstanding to the largest finance customers. If this was low, it would certainly lower the risk.

Nevertheless, the finance risks are clearly stated in the 10-K, and while you may feel they are minute, they nevertheless exist and are worth noting for those investors who prefer only the safest of investments.]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 16:28:38 -0400
You are right, the chances of a problem are quite low. However, what is not clear when SA picks up one of my articles is that my site is devoted to finding very low risk companies, and so the risks to PCAR were being highlighted in that context.

Your question about customers that can have an adverse impact is a good one; unfortunately, I was unable to find disclosure on this from PCAR. It would be nice to see the percentage of finance receivables outstanding to the largest finance customers. If this was low, it would certainly lower the risk.

Nevertheless, the finance risks are clearly stated in the 10-K, and while you may feel they are minute, they nevertheless exist and are worth noting for those investors who prefer only the safest of investments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114287/comments?source=feed#comment-404929 404929
I'm sorry if you feel I didn't give the mine enough credit. I wasn't suggesting the mine is no good, but was rather making an overall point that reliance on one source of revenue and highly variable pricing is risky, from a "Value" investing perspective. The stock might very well be a buy to you, but I was highlighting the risks which cause "value" investors to stay away.]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 15:52:56 -0500
I'm sorry if you feel I didn't give the mine enough credit. I wasn't suggesting the mine is no good, but was rather making an overall point that reliance on one source of revenue and highly variable pricing is risky, from a "Value" investing perspective. The stock might very well be a buy to you, but I was highlighting the risks which cause "value" investors to stay away.]]>