This is the first post I've read on SeekingAlpha that actually has facts and numbers. I have to agree with everything you said here. Stocks as an asset class isn't going to do well at all with all the overhang in the economic data. We're definitely going to have choppy markets but the long term trend isn't going to be up like everyone assumes.
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Not to sound like a total bear, but you need to stop trying to pick the bottom. Capitulation takes a long time and even if we have hit a short term bottom, the true bottom usually takes place a few years after, ex. 1929 we had the great crash in october, but the market fully bottomed out after choppy movement in 1932. The global economy is most likely headed towards a severe recession, I wouldn't bet on the fact that stocks would be a well performing asset class. However if you must pick stocks, perhaps the best strategy to pursue would be value investing.
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Jason I have to disagree.
You need to be greedy when others are fearful, except the problem is the others are still trying to time the market and have cash sitting on the sidelines. The US is entering into a period of stagnant growth + inflation in the horizon, I'm very afraid of inflation since the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are injecting tons of liquidity in a capital restrictive environment. This will not translate into stock market gains for the future. Sorry to be all gloom and doom but this is the reality of the environment we're in.
The problem with buying tech at these "cheap" levels, is that I believe tech will be the last shoe to drop since the market hasn't factored in the global slowdown. Intel most likely has more to drop when they start announcing earnings and future earnings forecasts.
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You need to be greedy when others are fearful, except the problem is the others are still trying to time the market and have cash sitting on the sidelines. The US is entering into a period of stagnant growth + inflation in the horizon, I'm very afraid of inflation since the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are injecting tons of liquidity in a capital restrictive environment. This will not translate into stock market gains for the future. Sorry to be all gloom and doom but this is the reality of the environment we're in.
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