danS

Investors Can Write Off GE Capital for the Next 5 Years

Thanks for the lively discussion. I didn't know you were doing this on your own time. If that is the case I am impressed. I guess the problem I have with GE is that their loan portfolio looks pretty good to me relative to a lot of troubled banks. That coupled with the strength of their industrial businesses makes me think of GEC's problems as essentially a one time charge off for bad loans. Their loan problems are not going to bring down the company or result in a significant dilution. Hence once the loans are charged off GE is going to be essentially where they were two or three years ago - a conglomerate with a smaller finance arm making around $2 a share.


On Jul 29 12:15 PM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> Dan, i think the headline is misleading, but the authors do not write
> the headline, seeking alpha does. most 'authors' on SA blog for
> fun, like me; i can not write a complete analysis when i do not get
> paid to do so, because i simply do not have time. i study my portfolio
> then write my conclusions. you adding facts is what makes SA valuable--
> everyone adds facts, and a fuzzy picture becomes clearer.
> in this environment, Immelt cannot get away with lieing politically,
> so when he says CRE and Eastern Europe will not effect cash flow
> i believe him; furthermore, CRE is well-secured. how much stimulus
> this year? if GE makes a 10% profit on 10% of $180B, that's $0.17EPS,
> or $2 at 12 PEx, conservatively; then, you get hammered with the
> UK RE, lose a couple $B cash flow 1H10... do you want to ride that
> roller coaster? my best guess is that if UK RE stabilizes, buy; if
> it does not stabilize, then there will be some hysterical selling
> 1H10 as UK RE bottoms and that will be the best time to buy; of course,
> a quick US macro recovery will render this meaningless.
> My main point was that for long run visibility right now, I am focusing
> on Energy and Technology Infrastructure. Dan, I hope you will make
> this a better place by continuing to add comments despite the amateur
> analyses.