Neal Vanderstelt

Inflation: Is This the Real Danger?

People just keep looking over the hill expecting the worst to be over with ignoring the lessons of the great depression or even Japan for that matter. The government has sat idly by while masses of people are loosing all of their belongings. Oh wait they did come in afterwords after all had jumped off the cliff without para shoots but perhaps it wasn't to save anyone just an opportunity for the them in the chaos. One would think it wouldn't happen to a powerful nation but once again history repeats itself when given a chance to repeat scenarios that obviously lead to bad outcomes. I guess all those years of study to make one a politician or financial expert they didn't learn 1 lesson from history in acquiring their degree. Perhaps the lesson for them is to create more control over people and not to make society better with new circumstances. Any reasonable and educated leader would be able to see the crisis in advance but in the news leading to all reports signaled that there was no crisis looming or even a recession. Very sad to see such poor leadership and decisions that effect masses of people that don't have the same educations of our leaders.

Where Is That Mythical Housing Bottom?

And I remember Jim Cramer like it was yesterday saying that housing was not a bubble that there was only so much land available. Sure Jim Cramer and what do you say now?

Lessons from the Great Depression
-Don't buy something with leverage/credit that you could never possible afford to pay off in the future. this is what so many businesses did in the roaring 20's and the fatal yrs before the depression.
-Don't buy market slogans at market peaks of how strong the economy will continue to be or there's no end to the thriving economy. if it seems too good to be true it usually is. much like Jim Cramer quotes, quotes from analyst and politicians back in the depression, today and other economic crisis. they are paid liars nothing more. sometimes they tell the truth, sometimes half truths, and sometimes they outright lie when they have to.
-More debt creates more poverty. the more you owe the farther you have to dig out of a hole. each time you sign into something your signing your own fate away. with taxes you don't have a choice. this is why monetary policies are so important to balance an economy.
-always consider the risk not just the reward. what were the chances of the home buyers doubling their investment that baught 2yrs before the bubble collapsed? and what were the chance of them loosing it all? obviously the prices were high and rates were escalated. it may have been hard to predict that some would loose it all but the tell tail signs were surfacing.

and one of my favorite quotes:
The Light that burns twice as bright burns half as long...
and you have burned so very, very brightly

Where Is That Mythical Housing Bottom?

Hello all, (Let me try to make sense of this big mess they got us in)
Just keep in mind the complexity of the housing market. The fact that you have to go though a process of borrowing money to buy such a big ticket item and the process of selling a home requires time to find a buyer and a process to go though completing a contract when the market is illiquid for houses. Think about it - you put a sign out in front of your house and hope someone finds it no the mls. The buyer has to look at it and make all kinds of decisions of weather they should buy and if it is a good time to. When everyone is doing this at once it further complicates the matter because the asset is now in less demand. If you compare it to selling other assets you can see all the complexity of having an agent, a special contract, and what not. Selling other things are much less complicated and don't require complicated procedures. As far as jobs goes this puts all kinds of people involved in housing out of work such as builders, makers of products, those in construction trades and so on. So the big question is when will housing deflate to a reasonable value and what will fill the gap in unemployment. One would have to look back into history when the problem got out of hand (ie when house prices became overinflated) and what measures our government is doing to make put the economy on track. So then you have to consider is the government putting more cash into our pockets in one way or another to help stimulate the economy and not just feed debt. There's not only a process to selling a home but a process for the economy to rebound. If a person has less wages or no wages and has to pay a huge percentage out of pocket for the cost of living and taxes to the government the chances are slim for a recovery.

The Euro Has Significant Problems - And They're Likely to Worsen

good article. thanks for all the information.

Inflation, Deflation and the U.S.-China Relationship

author raises some good points but as to his analogy coming true these are all huge variables.

More On Rising Dollar, Declining Gold

it all depends of course. i think their will alot of fluctuations and even changes of directions. nothing is for certain.

Profiting from the $700 Billion Bailout

When banks start closing it's too late.

Forget About a V-Shaped Recovery. Maybe a W. Or L. And What About $?

One of the better articles i've read by Kathy Lien and probably one of the best on seeking alpha. please keep up the good articles along these lines. prosperous wishes to you.

Recession Fears Go Global

very well written article.. no bs like in other articles.

Market Predictions: 'Crazy' About the Dollar

""Basenese---You are right but maybe we should keep it quiet --I love making money from equities and dollar going up and commodities going down.

Mark is a racist from Europe although we have them too where they come from the left.""

I suppose you think that if you mention race it dismisses all the fact of what the Bush administration and anti-American US Government is doing? What does it make you for liking the bastards in power who are the lowest scum on earth? You may be able to toss around the term racist but where are your own morals? Do you have any morals or are you just a parasite?

Market Predictions: 'Crazy' About the Dollar

Crap let him speak. He thinks the Jews are responsible for the economic crisis and wars and this definitely is at least partially fact.
This is not a reason to like the Jews.
Bush is a puppet to Israel and not only Israel but to Saudi and king Abdullah the oil tycoon. these sick bastards have been manipulating the markets and creating wars out of any crisis they can find so they can push their own agenda like oil and war profits that do not benefit the average American. By the way Bush has the lowest approval rating even lower than Nixon. Bush would just love to impress his Israeli buddies (who he serves not us Americans) and find a backdoor way into getting into a war with Iran such as though provoking Russia. Bush is an ass hole he is ruining all global diplomacy. Who cares about Israel, it doesn't concern the US and there should not be troops deployed in the Middle East which is another Vietnam. WWIII is possible because of zionist war mongers promoting wars. Cheney is another sick lowlife bastard Israeli puppet that is profiting from making wars.

The USD itself has to choose between having exports though a devalued dollar or to letting the economy rebound. With the economy slowing it may allow commodities to retreat. However the economy itself is basically ruined long term because of government spending (Bush's drunken sailor spending / war mongering for his zionist jew buddies) and massive deficits that are over 50 trillion for American tax payers. Nobody hates America more than the Bush administration and the American government so think twice about who you say is anti-American because apparently you are so dumbed down by refined foods and what's shown thought the propaganda machine you don't have any concept of it.

FOMC Meeting: Fed Talks Tough on Inflation

The national dept is so high that each american would have to pay 31k to pay it off and it's getting worse everyday. americans have are not only sunk from the national dept but everyone is in debt to their mortgage loans and credit cards. what happens when people and the government keep borrowing is they go bankrupt because they get trapped paying on only interest and eventually loose everything. the gdp was boosted by tax checks. everyone knows how bad it is. i used to be an independent trucker so who do you think your fooling? there's absolutely no economic strength. corporations can barely do business and the independents have a slim chance of surviving. the average age of the population keeps getting older and with less able-bodied workers. with debts so high and no earnings growth potential do you really think the economy will improve out of thin air? this is all propaganda to ease a patient at the operating table on their last legs. the problem is not even a global one because other countries are in different economic cycles. our government spending and bad economic policy has sunk the ship.
if you don't think the value of the dollar can go lower your just painting a false picture of hope. just because crude has corrected from record highs doesn't mean the dollar is strong. remember 100 a barrel was considered too high. this will only deteriorate over time. so it's not a panic overnight drop but in time it will erode with the macros being so bad. Remember a similar situation happened in Japan and it went though a very long period of deflation. The same is happening now.

Ahead of the Fed: Oil and the Dollar

the fed will have to cut to stimulate the economy and deal with higher inflation.

Gold Should Continue to Outperform; Dollar Should Fall

"once more, with cheaper yen/euro japanese exports
are more competitive"
depends on who they have to compete with. if China has to adjust higher because of their record inflation this will mean the yen can evaluate higher and still maintain competitive between rival.

Gold Should Continue to Outperform; Dollar Should Fall

"With the inflation in europe is early to think euro is dead."
there was inflation in the US before the dollar dropped. it's called stagflation. ie economy slowing while inflation still rises. this can be attributed to growth countries and Eurozone is not one of them.