EbayObserver's Comments

eCommerce Stock Pair Trade: Amazon vs. eBay

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 08:57:07 -0400

I am not sure why Amazon's long term is better than Ebay: Amazon's business is a open book and every one can copy it, especially if you can get the critical mass like Ebay does. Ebay's auction is there to stay; now it enters the game of fixed price. So one way of looking at this is that Ebay expand to Amazon's turf and grab some shares, while keeps its own turf of auction intact; there seems to be no serious competitors in the auction field. I have heard that Ebay lost shares but could not figure out to whom. For fixed priced game, Ebay obviously is trying to catch on, a field that it is not the number one play to start with.

eBay: Triple Whammy Weighs on Stock Price

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:12:13 -0400

Jeetil Patel from Deutch Bank downgrading eBay to a $19.00 target price is certainly not a very good sign. He must know something that the rest of us don't know as yet!

Well. The Guy was right on target in predicting $24 a year ago. Only catch is that his EPS and Cash flow estimate was way off ($1.4-$1.5 EPS estimate vs. $1.7-$1.8 current concensus view). So follow him if trading on price, and just laugh if value is the what you are looking for.

Berkshire Hathaway: At a Good Buying Opportunity

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:40:41 -0400

The formula "<1.5X book" is a interesting; though it has nothing to do with value investing W.B. has been using.

Tempting Buffett

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:35:35 -0400

"Unless Buffett is completely bearish on the future of America, chances are he is thinking hard about buying one of these companies."

This is nonsense; it should be changed to "Unless Buffett completely understands the company and its business, chances are he is NOT going to buy any one of these companies."

Q2 Predictions for eBay Business Segments

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 19:34:29 -0400

Ebay's auction business is kind of saturating; difficult to grow fast anymore. As for ebay will collapse... that would be very interesting: given ebay's profitability and cash position. It should at least be able to play Amazon's game on a level field. That business has not much moat around it, everyone can grab a share. Amazon has a very good trend in growth, but profit margin is not as good as ebay. Ebay's growth rate is not as high as before, but it seems that no one think is will shrink. Given 14X earning, and still growing (even though it is not as high as Amazon's, selling at more than 30 X earnings; and the current interest rate is about 2-3%), the current price of ebay seems to bet on its decline in earnings. That is a very interesting bet. But even the most pessimistic analyst is not predicting declining revnue and earnings; even though I do not listen to analyst anyway. It is very interesting to see what Ebay will be: collapse or modest growth?

Q2 Predictions for eBay Business Segments

Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:09:27 -0400

Ebay's accounting seems quite clean; any doubt here?

Q2 Predictions for eBay Business Segments

Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:07:24 -0400

On one side so many sellers are leaving; on the other side, EBay keeps get record earning. Is it possible that sellers coming in out-numbered sellers leaving?