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JoeyW

JoeyW
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  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    with respect to the GILD crater, and similar craters that we've all lived through, I'm reminded of that old time stock picker, the Babe Ruth of stock selectors Mr. Loeb himself who said of cratering stocks and mkts.:


    "Don't eat soup when it's still hot",,,,
    Dec 24, 2014. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Focused On Income Earn Higher Total Returns [View article]
    Chuck Carnevale is the Bear Bryant of SA.
    Dec 13, 2014. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Doesn't Work: Intel And Philip Morris Edition [View article]
    The standard response to this article is going to be that not all investors are in this for total return...A lot of people want a stream of income to arrive in their checking account every 3 months with the hopes that the stream keeps up with the CPI. Investing isn't a one size fits all endeavor. IMO, as they say in Econ 101 (all things being equal), if I can get with a company who can do more by reinvesting in the company than I can by receiving a dividend, than I'm with Buffett and other non div people....But I'm in my early 50's and I don't need the dough...Other people put food in their stomachs and keep the lights on with those dividends.....Also, I'm sure that there's someone out there in SA land who can roll out the stats from 1900 that show how much of the S&P's total return cam from income...While I don't know the stats off hand, I know that the % of total return that has come from dividends is staggering and I would suppose much greater than this author would lead us to believe...
    This div vs non div stock argument has been around since man crawled out of the primordial slime...Pretty safe to say that there are as many appropriate and inappropriate investment vehicles as their are individual investors in this world...
    Nov 24, 2014. 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Will Start Social Security At Age 62 [View article]
    In matters like these, I take my cues from that financial guru for the ages- Janis Joplin, who, in her 1969 song that's all about discounting the future in favour of the now, sang "GET IT WHILE YOU CAN"...
    Aug 30, 2014. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil Results Show The Price Of Value [View article]
    Good stuff..Sort of off the wall question, but do you know if there are any Norway/US Tax agreements in place? I imagine that STO gets taxed pretty heavily for they do, after all, have a very robust social welfare state...Regardless, STO is a very good company. They abide by the Star Trek philosophy of exploration: "to boldly go where no producer has gone before"..But they do their homework before they attach that drill bit....All in all, a great company and a company that's been overlooked...
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Coca-Cola Earnings Were Just Fair, Should Dividend Investors Head For The Hills Now? [View article]
    Headed for the hills myself....I just can't partner up with these Jurassic age, slow growing/flat or low single dig. rev. companies any more....Each person has different goals and risk/reward concepts...I'm in my early 50's and inside of one of my retirement accounts....Yes, I headed for the hills and am deciding where to put the COKE proceeds (notice I didn't write "coke money") so that it's working more efficiently for me. IMO..I bought KO a couple months ago when the yield was well north of 3%, got a feel for the company, but with this tepid report, I decided to cut n run and re-allocate...Stocks I'm considering? Novo Nordisk, a company which specializes in diabetes treatment...See the irony? I also like one of Fidelity's new medical intensive ETF's as well as AOS and/or Gilead. Time will tell, but at the very least, I want to see positive revenue growth, and I'm avoiding companies whose most creative way to deploy free cash and gin the numbers is to buy back its own shares...Much more interested in companies who are plowing money back into their companies by way of R&D...Just not feeling it with Coke...Time will tell if I'm right or if I'm wrong.
    Jul 22, 2014. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE Earnings Preview: 'The Incredible Shrinking GE', Or 'Where's The Beef'? [View article]
    I would suggest anyone interested in investing in an "infrastructure" conglomerate to check out JCI (Johnson Controls)...Unlike GE, a company that "deworsified" under the misguided Welch regime, Johnson Controls has stuck to its engineering roots.Probably their most aggressive move lately was the acquisition of YORK Air...JCI is a good old Midwestern American Co. run by a bunch of red faced/corn fed engineers by way of Purdue and Northwestern....JCI is also doing exciting things in Asia, but most of all, they've stuck to what's got them there to begin with: engineering...In short, JCI is the type of company GE wishes it could be...Why wait for a turnaround when you can invest in a company like JCI, a company with all the positives of GE but none of the negative baggage?..Jus sayin
    Jul 17, 2014. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of J.M. Smucker Company [View article]
    I put this company in the same "Haley's Comet" cat. as Automatic Data, Next Era and GWW: they give one decent entry points about every 86 years..At the same time, all they do is plug along and generate free cash flow. SJM is available for online DRIP via Computershare....Not my favorite vendor, but you can get into the stock for $250 and start building from there...Remember Ben Franklin's adage on dollar cost averaging: "Little strokes fell great oaks". I've got SJM on the short list along with a couple others...
    Jul 3, 2014. 05:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Income Portfolios In Today's Market: Consider Defensive Utility Stocks [View article]
    Chuck: NEE just rolled out a new IPO/LP symbol= "NEP"....It has a track record of all of 1 week, but NEE, the parent co., has a lot of sharp people in its stable, or at least people who know how to separate people from their wallets....I realize the value of a track record, but from where I sit, I'd give NEP the bene of the doubt given the close assoc. with NEE...
    Jun 30, 2014. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Income Portfolios In Today's Market: Consider Defensive Utility Stocks [View article]
    I took this piece about the often misunderstood relationship between interest rates and utility prices from an article published on SA on 12/13/13 by Roger Conrad, a frequent SA contributor and someone who's forgotten more about utilities than I'll ever know...He was citing a bar chart showing the price movement of the Utility Index and the 10 year note from 1993-2013. I didn't know if I could post the chart, but for anyone interested in the full article, look for Roger Conrad's articles via SA:

    Roger Conrad:
    Both the utility and telecom indexes posted gains in 14 of those years and lost ground in four. In the three other years, one index generated a positive return while the other posted a loss.

    In the 14 years that both equity indexes rallied, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes declined on eight occasions and climbed six times. Ironically, both utility and telecom stocks have rallied this year despite the upsurge in interest rates.

    Of the four times that these indexes lost ground, interest rates finished the year higher on only one occasion - 1994, the year that utilities and telecom outfits faced the threat of prospective deregulation.

    At the time, credit-rating agencies had forecast that stranded costs would result in a spate of bankruptcies among electric utilities, while investors worried about the break-up of local-phone monopolies and its implications for telecom names.

    But the industry's resilience in the face of deregulation fueled the rally that followed in 1995. And utility and telecom stocks dropped in 2001, 2002 and 2008 even as interest rates fell sharply.

    We're not suggesting that interest rates won't affect the performance of these traditional dividend-paying equities. However, the Dow Jones Utilities Average and the S&P 500 Telecommunication Services Index haven't behaved like bond substitutes over the past 21 years.

    Earnings are the key to dividend growth and returns. And higher borrowing costs are only significant in terms of the extent to which they impact business profitability.

    For these reasons, the pullback in utilities and telecom stocks this spring and summer marked a buying opportunity - not a time to head for the hills. Savvy investors should keep this in mind during the next rate-inspired selloff and consider building positions in my favorite utility stocks for 2014.
    PS: I think you can access the chart by pasting this add.
    http://bit.ly/V1TOJD
    Jun 30, 2014. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Income Portfolios In Today's Market: Consider Defensive Utility Stocks [View article]
    NEE is probably the most forward thinking of all the players...It's the Hayley's Comet of equities-gives you a decent price point about every 5 years...The work they've done in the areas of solar and wind is astounding. Am following closely the roll out of their IPO NextEra Energy Partners LP, which operates 10 wind and solar projects,,,SYMBOL= NEP
    Jun 29, 2014. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Biggest Threat - Declining Prices Of Computing Devices [View article]
    Thanks for this article...You point out what I feel is the biggest rub with tech investing: pricing power over time. Economist Shumpater's had a famous adage that capitalism is characterized by its "creative winds of destruction"; hence, the internal combust engine blew away the buggy. The X ray was supplanted by the MRI. The typewriter was done in by the PC, and on and on blow those creative winds of destruction...Great for the consumer to be sure. More difficult for the investor, particularly for an investor whose models are built on some degree of confidence in revenue predictions. In a former life, I made a small fortune on paper with Sun Microsystems (SUNW) only to watch as their pricing power in the server space eroded as competitors came online and as other tech solutions were rolled out. Once the backbone of the web, Sun Micro found itself at the bottom of the tech boom scrap pile.
    What's an investor to do? In my case, I exited tech and went large moat with energy, cigs and booze...Not nearly as exciting, but at least one can have a relatively higher degree of certainty that a. these businesses will survive b. revenues will grow over time. It's all about earnings visibility...Now, if the governments could just stay on the sidelines, we could make some serious dough. We'll have to pray for that one.
    Jun 29, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Income Portfolios In Today's Market: Consider Defensive Utility Stocks [View article]
    To NV--I get it, hence my inclusion of the Utility Forecaster take...They have buys out on all 3, though at slightly lower entry points than the current prices...miles of difference between the Utility Forecaster's buy price and the Graham Dodd people
    Jun 28, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Income Portfolios In Today's Market: Consider Defensive Utility Stocks [View article]
    SCG....I can't get details right on Sat. morning to save my life...Must have been thinking scaNa, hence the "N"
    Jun 28, 2014. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Income Portfolios In Today's Market: Consider Defensive Utility Stocks [View article]
    I crossrefed these stocks with two publications that I like: 1) Modern Graham Stock Screens 2) The Utility Forecaster newsletter...Here's what I found.
    1) Graham Dodd:
    A) ED: As of June 12: Graham Est.
    Value= $41.52
    Current Price=$57.55
    Price as a % of Value=138.6%
    BETA .17
    B) SCN: Graham Est. of intrinsic Value= $38.13 Mkt=$53.57
    Price as a % of Value= 140% BETA .42
    C) SO: Graham Est. of intrinsic Value= $ 24.14 Mkt=$45.06
    Price as a % of Value= 186.50% BETA .14

    Utility Forecaster newsletter:
    A. ED- buy at/under $58 Book Value- 1.26
    B. SCN- buy at/ under $50 Book Value-1.53
    C. SO- Buy at/under $42 Book Value- 2.01
    Utility Forecaster has SO as the "safest" coming in with a rating of 8 out of a possible 8....The least safe of these three is ED, which carries a 4/8 rating.

    I also like to check with UTG (Reeves Utility Income Fund) to see if that CEF has these stocks in their port. Each stock is part of the UTG port: SO= 2.1% ED=.64 and SCG= 3.57 of the total portfolio...
    I try to use all of these resources to separate the rubies from the rocks...I've found both Morningstar's Div. Newsletter, S&P Outlook as well as Value Line to be solid ruby sifters. As far as SA goes, I like to see what both Elliot Gue and Roger Conrad have to say, especially with respect to dividend and infrastructure stocks.. Roger is the former editor of the Utility Forecaster and has forgotten more about the utility sector than most of us will ever know.
    ..But I don't act on a stock unless that stock shows up on Chuck's value screen...Once I see where that "black line" lies, I start a sifting, but if that line is too high, I leave it alone. Sorry to say that my perennial fav. utility NEE rarely comes into a buy range...On those rare occasions when NEE trades down, I would back up the truck, mortgage my house, and pawn my watches, and max out my credit card to buy that stock...IMO, NEE is second to none...Trouble is that it rarely rates a buy..I digress
    Good Luck...Sift on
    Jun 28, 2014. 11:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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