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  • Apple To $1,000? 1 Main Catalyst [View article]
    No, you said Windows 8 would reduce iPad sales, resulting in a fall in AAPL...sounds to me like you are trying to take credit for a coincidencal stock move that was not consistent with your reasoning.

    Relic says: "Windows 8 will reduce the ipad sales next year and this stock will slide back down to sub 500 or even 400 levels by this time next year"

    Besides, let's see where AAPL is next summer...
    Nov 20, 2012. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Physics: What Goes Down Must Go Up [View article]
    Yeah?
    Try tracking earnings along with price....plot price/earnings and show us where the bubble is....
    Nov 20, 2012. 02:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Do You Get Harmony If Everyone Sings The Same Tune? [View article]
    Hi TUT,
    Liked the article and the subject matter....I've had a lot of debate over supply, the mini, and the management overhaul. In discussing Forstall I took this position on the changes:

    ....with Steve Jobs now gone, there is very, very big shoes for Tim Cook to fill.... SJ maintained the focus of the company on making the products the best that Apple can do, kept design as a high priority, he was the final decision maker, he was the face of the company, and its best evangelist.

    Now, Cook to his credit, recognizes that he cannot possibly fulfill all of these roles. Cook has brought incredible efficiency to Apple, and without him, a great deal of Apple's profitability would look different. His strength is in operations and efficiency of supply.

    That may seem strange, because of all of the recent problems...but, he is managing big changes to suppliers as well as constantly having to ramp up volume to keep up with the expanding demand. And, the suppliers themselves have been dropping the ball a bit (Sharp, Foxconn, TSMC), each created very significant problems, that Cook ended up having to try to help them manage.

    Now that being said, what Cook has to delegate to others, is those things which are clearly not his forte: design decisions, product trade-offs, maintenance of the Apple spirit and company culture (excellence in product and design). This sets Apple apart...it is part of what people expect of Apple...it is part of their brand, and it is the reason why people will pay a premium..

    If that culture becomes degraded, then Apple will have to play the low ball commodity game...To me, that makes Jony Ive essential.... he was SJ's partner in the design aesthetics, and in understanding that the true goal is not profits, but an emphasis on making the products great...profits will follow, where Cook's and Schiller's expertise comes in....

    Mansfield is critical because the hardware engineers were being distracted from their best work by his replacements. Things seemed to get somewhat disrupted, when he departed Apple...the rumor was that a significant part of that decision was problems with Forstall... Cook can't afford that right now, competition is heating up....the engineers have to have their "A" game going....now more than ever....

    I suspect that Federighi and Cue will probably do a good job of filling Forstall's shoes, they have an established track record at Apple, and in addition and importantly, they will be able to work with Ive...

    So people will help fill the vacuum left by Jobs, in design, in decisions in integrating design and software.... what I think can't be replaced is SJ's ability to generate excitement, his passion and inspiration. Unfortunately no one on the team can hold a candle to Jobs in that....

    In my mind, it became a forced choice at Apple...now, if Cook and the board weighed the options and decided that Forstall was the more irreplaceable one, than counter to his own feelings, Cook would've had to suck it up, keep Forstall, and let the chips fall where they may with the others...almost certainly meaning losing Mansfield, and....the possibility of losing Ive...

    How could they ever replace him? I think that the software might go on being as good as it has been....but if they lost the guy who designed the look and the form of the iMacs, the Macbooks, the iPhone and iPad....they would be in very verydesirous straits. In that case, I would not have faith that Apple could even maintain their identity and the look of their products....

    The choice was a no-brainer IMO....and we will see how Apple performs with less hostility in their ranks....
    Nov 20, 2012. 02:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Do You Get Harmony If Everyone Sings The Same Tune? [View article]
    PCs have passed the point where more is trully helpful....more like lighter, less heat, longer battery life are desirable traits over horsepower....which sounds more like a Mac Air or iPad to me....Both macs and iPads are growing, while most PC sales shrink. This scares Microsoft...and life is even getting difficult for Intel. And, if Apple drops them down the road in favor of their own processor designs, things will get worse for intel....

    Google burned their bridges with Apple long ago, fearing to ever be at the mercy of a powerful MS and Apple, looked to create their own platform to control (used loosely for that fragmented mess), nevermind that giving away Android was a strike at the heart of the mobile market by flooding it with cheap clones....

    And strangely enough, Google seemed to bring about a self-fulfilling prophesy, making mortal enemies of Apple, which despite Google's disruption, has grown iOS into a very significant ecosystem that Google would like to remain part of....but their Maps are kicked off, and who knows how far things will go before its all said and done...

    The profits of Google and Microsoft are being dwarfed by Apple's integrated hardware/software model, and so both of them are scrambling to undermine their hardware partners by entering the hardware business directly to get a piece of that delicious pie. Google watches most profits flow to their partner, Samsung instead of into their own coffers...so as Samsung tries to imitate Apple's products, Google and Microsoft are looking at Apple's profitable integrated business model and salivating.....
    Nov 20, 2012. 02:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    Personally, with the Lumias, I like that the UI looks different, and using it appears to be actually different....like they actually started a design process going back to the drawing board, rather than starting with iOS ideas and differentiating enough to avoid legal problems (I credit MS for that aspect)...but, even the Nokia hardware design looks fresh and new as well....the tough part for them is coming so late to the game, executing well, shaking the bugs out, and overcoming any anti MS sentiment.....
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    "Lol, there is a "problem" with the stock because it doesn't go up perpetually?" 

    If that isn't a straw man argument, I don't know what is.....I CLEARLY did not say that the stock should go up perpetually....but, so that we're clear, neither did I claim that that stock should go to the moon, or that Apple will take over the universe....

    ALL stocks, go up and down, ebbs and flows....

    Some were disappointed by last earnings, but you might have noticed that that was not the trigger for a huge sell-off. This has been occurring as part of multitudes of factors that have been viewed by the media very negatively....

    Those who were paying attention will have noticed a multitude of factors that led to selling....some of which were of lesser consequence or even at odds with the facts....

    Mapgate was constantly blown out of proportion as a disaster...hit the stock pretty good...but thousands polled said that was not a compelling reason for them to buy the iPhone or not to buy...less than .5% considered it important, personally. When I used the maps they were fine for my locality, and the navigation was extremely well done.....

    Then we got scratchgate, purple haze.... then came the release, with much less supply than demand......Gee, does that ever happen with Apple products? 

    IPhone sales have been impressive, but the stock was hit hard, repeatedly for the past couple of months. They sold all the phones they had, 5 million in three days....why is that? Because analysts were expecting much more. When were they making high estimates...right prior to the release....where was all the guys buying heavily on expectations of 10 million talked about just prior to the release? Did you see a lot of buying on that? I didn't...   What if Apple sold 10m in three days, but analysts said they expect 20m? All that selling doesn't make sense, because the expectations were not even priced in, in the first place. 

    The the mini was too cheap, too expensive, wouldn't sell....except that I still have to wait 2 weeks for the one I'm ordering as a gift....selling very well for something that was so widely criticized.... the release and pricing took the stock down even more....

    Then the Forstall issue, which was long in coming, too....either it was a big problem within that would continue to fester, or something needed to change. The same guys harping on Forstall's loss were criticizing iOS for not changing and stagnating....

    Now we got EU problems, Syria/Israeli conflicts, heavy tax selling, and fiscal cliff fears...

    AAPL's current price is not a rational pullback in reaction to a miss in earnings....that is a very small piece to this picture. Anathan, you acknowledged yourself that there has been a long steady pullback.... It has been a mass accumulation of factors over time....but not all of these factors make a whole lot of sense....

    According to your analysis, AAPL at $265 is overvalued, huh? That sounds like an extreme point of view...perhaps you should write an article justifying that....You sound like you are a bear who is choosing to ignore almost everything that has been going on with this stock, blaming it on a highly pessimistic view of Apple's products and prospects....but if that were correct, and demand was consistent with your analysis....then we would not be having shortages in supply, would we? 

    I view this as the stock becoming highly disconnected from reasonable valuations....to an extent that it has surpassed the degree of disconnect we saw this same time last year.....the slingshot was being pulled really far back last year, and it is happening to a greater degree now... that is not an unreasonable, crazy starry-eyed assessment....some respected analysts view it similarly.....
    Nov 17, 2012. 03:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Threat To Apple's Sales Estimates [View article]
    Exactly.... data isn't cheap unless you're sitting at home next to your Wi-Fi most of the time, but if that's how one uses computing, then you don't need mobile.....I'm all over the place, so I use 3G and 4G a lot, and it gets pricey....

    Also, as soon as you have week signals, you're either dead in the water, or you're downloading at a snail's pace, reminding me of the dial up days.....

    The comments and articles are cloud based type of programming...it's good....but week signal and it gets really slow....or how about that 700 comment thread? Nightmare on a data plan....Cloud has its advantages, but we need both options of local and cloud...I do like how Amazon uses their cloud services for books....I can get them in any of my devices as I need them.....iTunes is not bad either with their music, but there are some glitches......
    Nov 16, 2012. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    It is a real opportunity for buy backs at huge discounts.... I wouldn't want it overdone, though.... The operational uses of cash are far more crucial to Apple, which have given them advantages....also, they must meet their commitments on dividends....

    Don't forget, a lot of cash is overseas, not all available to be used here. Careful deliberate use is how they've approached the cash, and that should not change...but I agree that the stock is really a great value at this level....and accelerating some buy back of stock might be a good idea.....
    Nov 16, 2012. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    Biobat, Retina display is awesome, great for reading text and displaying images....no more eye strain....and the new A6X is twice as fast as my iPad 3.....
    Nov 16, 2012. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    I agree, good job on the chart of woes....and the status of these issues....some are permenant (SJ), and some are being resolved....and their status matters. The ones not on the list (purple haze and such) are pure FUD. However, as far as the the stock, the state of congress, and tax selling, those are separate from how Apple is doing as a business.....
    Nov 16, 2012. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    Good to see that your self-love is intact...

    US market is not saturated, but is now passed the 50% smartphone penetration, Apple's growth is continuing in the US. Internationally, Galaxy is doing well, and so is the iPhone...both are expanding, and when we can compare S3 to the iP5, then we will see large numbers for both, with more to come for both....

    Surface, I thought would do better because of the business crowd...either all of them are "toys".....or MS has done a poor job....they sure messed up with half their memory taken up by tgeir bloatware.... MS hasn't even proven themselves in smartphones or tablets....Samsung has....
    Nov 16, 2012. 03:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Valuation Doesn't Matter, At Least For Now [View article]
    Anathan: "It doesn't matter at all where Apple's own projections are, only where the markets' are, and Apple is missing those."

    Apple meeting it's own projections is relevant for the health of their business, separate from the stock reactions. That seems to be a problem with the stock and how it is being assessed....Apple could earn 70B in a future quarter, but if analysts say it should be 80B, that is a huge miss and the stock gets hit regardless of the massive profits....great for Apple, terrible for the stock...

    Something is way off in AAPLs market and the way it is valuing it with no growth factored into its price, as if the doomsday scenarios have already happened....but people are still buying the products and Apple still makes huge earnings per share....

    Apple seems to be selling off on non-fundamental factors at the moment, such as tax profit-taking, fiscal cliff fears, margin calls and being one of the few stocks that the funds still have profits to take from....

    Yet, you are making your arguments based on the idea that people will stop buying the iPhones and the iPads, because they will opt for "better" (in your mind) and cheaper alternatives, and the overplayed Steve Jobs is dead.....

    Uhhhh.....who didn't know that over a year ago.....any buying since then was with that understanding...

    Your comments indicate that you think smartphones are commoditized....but yet people are still paying the premium prices and Apple has been selling out, despite producing in greater volumes than ever....your explanations by relating it to the product and consumer demand have the facts opposing them....I say, the facts win, not your ideas....
    Nov 16, 2012. 02:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Threat To Apple's Sales Estimates [View article]
    As for me, I don't want cloud apps....I want as much as possible run on my device. I already sometimes lose access to some things at work that requires Internet...they are not nearly as reliable....all my non-cloud programs still work as long as I have power or batteries.

    With my mobile devices, the more could they use, the more expensive my data becomes and they also burn more power....apps are inexpensive enough to buy what I use frequently if I ever want to change platform....
    Nov 16, 2012. 03:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Threat To Apple's Sales Estimates [View article]
    I'm still waiting for Samsung to come out with new ARM processors based on the A6X and Apple's next chip....except they will bevel the corners on the CPU and name it the S6X.....

    Obviously Sammy's Galaxy exists in a Parallel universe where things are only slightly different from Apple's galaxy....
    Nov 14, 2012. 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Threat To Apple's Sales Estimates [View article]
    "ASPs must decline much further to defend market share"

    With our current subsidy model, I didn't think that this will happen with the iPhone. They didn't do that for the 4, the 4S, or the 5.... And what has happened to unit sales? In your data, did is grow or shrink....how about EPS?

    Tablets are different, and I do think that Apple needed to respond to a valid developing 7" market....but they did not try to compete on price alone and continue to expect to command a premium....margins decline somewhat, but mostly ASP will be impacted, they will have to sell more minis to be equivalent to regular iPad sales....however, it does keep margins healthy and it provides a great entry into iOS...

    Where are your iPhone mini ideas coming from, are you hearing leaked rumors?

    As far as sentiment, it seems at an all time low....but, maintaining an upswing will be difficult with all the macro concerns, and that will probably dictate the price until fiscal cliff things get resolved.

    Wim, some parts of your analysis was good, but a lot were very problematic and I stopped reading carefully after there were too many serious problems with the analysis....can you answer some of the concerns I had above, and some other commenters who were specific about what were seen as problematic?
    Nov 14, 2012. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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