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Ronin.

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  • Though analysts have come to its defense this morning, Apple (AAPL -1.9%) can't catch a break - shares now trade at 8.2x FY13E EPS (exc. cash). The decline comes as signs emerge Apple is taking new steps to vertically integrate: Digitimes reports Apple is now directly placing orders with material suppliers, who traditionally interact with manufacturers, and Horace Dediu theorizes Apple may have invested ~$2B in Sharp's display production. He also notes Apple's off-balance-sheet manufacturing/component purchase commitments have risen to $21.1B[View news story]
    I believe Sharp is becoming a bigger supplier for phone screens, not an old one that has been failing because of Apple. Samsung had become a increasingly larger supplier for chips and screens, and now, reversing this is a bit painful, because although they are now an enemy, they excel at component quality and delivering product in massive quantities. Earlier, Samsung took iPad display business from LG and Sharp, due to quality issues...

    Apple has been working to try and get other suppliers such as LG, Sharp, and Japan Display (http://reut.rs/ZkW0ca) to take up the slack as they eliminate Samsung from their supplier list, and also to work with the new in-cell technology Apple developed.

    Apple is a huge customer for any supplier, but is never able to buy anything below cost from suppliers unless they have already paid for it by other means, such as paying up front for facilities and expansion. They are capable of making deals with companies that their competitors can't, but it seems to have been profitable for suppliers as well, notably Qualcomm, Broadcomm, Samsung.
    Nov 10, 2012. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Finally Bottomed Out? [View article]
    Richbar says: "The problem that analysts have is how to lower projections...They couldn't say growth is going to single digits and then flattening out. So they arrived at the 20% growth figure. If anyone went lower he/she would be ridiculed."

    You know Richbar, I've read a lot of commentaries over time, where various analysts discuss how they view Apple's business, but never ever came across anything like what you are claiming. I find it strange that your conclusion is that they couldn't be as bearish as they really wanted to be....

    It makes me wonder if you meant that they wanted to be at par with your bearish thoughts, since that is the "correct" analysis, but we're deterred because they were afraid...

    Also, since analysts estimates are a conglomeration of the numbers of dozens of analysts, how did you manage to divine all the many intentions?

    So, let me ask you where you came to your conclusions on the projections other than the musings within your own mind? To me, given the size of the global market, the adding on of more carriers, and the growth of the iPad profits, my sense was that the growth projections seemed low....but I haven't pretended to know the minds of the analysts as a collective like you have, or that they "meant" to be more bullish or bearish...

    So, Richbar, reveal to us which analysts revealed their true intentions to you and how you came to your "inside" take on analyst projections....

    I will stand in line, because it looks like there are other questions those before me want answered as well....
    Nov 10, 2012. 01:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    Hahaha...Hulligan strikes again!

    Good luck with an article, you'll have fun with the responses should you write an article on such a thing...you haven't even seemed to think through what has happened between mid-summer and November. Two competitors have been selling new models of loss leader tablets selling for cost without even including development costs... Nexus 7 and Fire HD....so changes in percentages are not surprising.

    Yet iPad mini both Wi-Fi and 4G versions have a good chance of impacting the numbers again, especially given the high unit sales on only the WiFi portion thus far.
    Nov 9, 2012. 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple A Growth Stock Or A Dividend Stock Now? [View article]
    Hi Buddy,
    Hey John, nothing like winning the troll war, huh? Feels like a different place now....Yeah, I was saying earlier how tge iP5 feels very well crafted, like a stylish watch....they also have a new iOS update, so they are probably working on resolving any residual issues, though I was lucky not to experience them with my phone....

    Man, don't waste your $450 subsidy on something you don't like. I still have my 4 around as a back up in case I ever lose my 5....right now it functions as a great iPod touch, with extra space for things....kids play games for reward of good behavior...they don't get to touch the 5... maybe you have something old lying around for the interim if necessary? Otherwise I think there are $25 disposable cell phones at Walmart, I've used them before in emergencies....
    Nov 9, 2012. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    Efficiency and short-term profits of supply may not be the only considerations, especially when dealing with your direct competitor to your top product....suppliers know more, and know much earlier than most, about what you are doing and the specs of the products you are putting out....
    Nov 8, 2012. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Though analysts have come to its defense this morning, Apple (AAPL -1.9%) can't catch a break - shares now trade at 8.2x FY13E EPS (exc. cash). The decline comes as signs emerge Apple is taking new steps to vertically integrate: Digitimes reports Apple is now directly placing orders with material suppliers, who traditionally interact with manufacturers, and Horace Dediu theorizes Apple may have invested ~$2B in Sharp's display production. He also notes Apple's off-balance-sheet manufacturing/component purchase commitments have risen to $21.1B[View news story]
    The situation with selling has worsened as people lock in gains prior to a possible capital gains tax increase in the upcoming year...

    Cramer coming on CNBC today and announcing that Isaacson (SJ biographer) told him that there is nothing in the Apple product pipeline, cant have helped....Cramer saying to sell...

    Rough times for the stock, of this company with the largest share of the profits in both smartphones and tablets....I guess profit doesn't matter to wall street....hmmmm
    Nov 8, 2012. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Innovation Is Stronger Than Ever, Valuation Very Attractive [View article]
    I guess that's less complicated then actually explaining what DM really means....lots of people would just give you a blank stare....lol

    I'm not careful enough to carry these things without a protective case, including my iP5. I need something to protect the iPad if it slips and falls to the pavement... now I have protection and I can stand the iPad up in various ways. There really isn't a huge problem with heat....such a simple change and I don't even think about it anymore....
    Nov 8, 2012. 04:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Reasons Microsoft Surface Is DOA [View article]
    Jumping Sheep was confused about his facts....and when confronted on it, claimed that he knew better as a young teen hobbiest about what was "really" going on inside Apple at the time....I guess that includes Gates as an influential Apple employee.....hahaha....

    You are right about Next. Apple needed an OS badly and was trying to deal with a former Apple manager that started his own venture, Jean-Louis Gassée, who was asking too much for his product, thinking Apple had no choice....he miscalculated and ended up losing the deal to Steve Jobs, who wanted to sell his failing business and return with a foot in the door to his real love, Apple. He did a bang up sales job, while Gassée was arrogant and didn't even try to present his product.

    While back inside, the incompetence of Amelio, the CEO at the time, became more and more glaring, and that is when the politics that Sheep was talking about, brought about a big shift in power, not earlier with the NeXt purchase.

    Even SJ's earlier exodus from Apple was complicated, and there seems to be some disagreement on whether he willingly left or was fired....I feel that the complete long story has to be read before making that judgment.
    Nov 7, 2012. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Innovation Is Stronger Than Ever, Valuation Very Attractive [View article]
    I have tried a number of cases in the time that I've had the 2 and 3, at my own expense, not for overheating, but for convenience and function, like I mentioned above, as well as trying a Bluetooth keyboard case. Too small for comfort, so I ended up using the Apple blutooth keyboard.

    If you guys recall, the Retina display used a lot more power than the previous lower res screen, and the batteries in the iPad 3 were dramatically increased, perhaps they were doubled. That is another reason why I think that it is more the power requirements of the screen rather than the CPU that was creating excessive heat.

    I didn't approach Apple for the problem, so I can't tell you about their response. Most times, I figure out good solutions on my own...then I might look for help if that doesn't work out...
    Nov 7, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Innovation Is Stronger Than Ever, Valuation Very Attractive [View article]
    Ericmeister,

    I have the iPad 3, and initially had some overheating problems. The solution for me was to change cases to ones that have an open back that displays the logo on the back, this seems to stop trapping the heat inside of the case, so since then, I only get some warming, but no overheating. Such cases such as Targus has an added benefit of rotating so that you can stand your iPad in either portrait or landscape orientations....that is a feature I use often....

    I couldn't find any reports of problems with the new iPad 4 on a search, but I think that a lot of the heat comes mostly from the batteries rather than the processor itself, as it doesn't seem to just come from a small discrete location, and since the overall power consumption of the 4 is not much higher than the 3, I would guess that heating up would be about the same as the 3, unless Apple has taken further measures to improve heat dispersion....

    I also have an iPhone 5, and do not experience a heating problem at all. I would suggest that anyone having that problem, visit their nearest Apple store, because that is definitely out of the ordinary.
    Nov 7, 2012. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple A Growth Stock Or A Dividend Stock Now? [View article]
    If you're trying to be English, the word is "Bollucks!" Tomas.... :)

    I'm aware of the history of the GUI. Xerox developed concepts that were floating around at that time, and their mouse input was ingenious. They tried to launch their own products based on the GUI and was unsuccessful, then retreated to focus on their photocopiers which were being far more successful.

    It was Apple who further innovated the GUI, developed the Mac OS (this took extremely intensive engineering work if you read the story of its development, the Mac team were stretched almost beyond their sanity) and got Gates to develop software for it...all leading to the first COMMERCIALLY successful product....without which, I wonder if the idea would have been shelved and wasted. That doesn't excuse SJs taking of the ideas, he should have paid Xerox for the idea....he stole the ideas and Gates stole the ideas from Apple...

    If just left with Xerox, we might have been cursed with more years of DOS. Apple showed Microsoft that the GUI was superior, and could be commercially profitable. Gates was brought to the idea of windows because he was brought in by Jobs to program for the Mac GUI...Gates had no field trip to Xerox PARC....if not for this connection, that would have set back the entire computer industry....maybe for decades....

    After all that, who made all the money? Microsoft and Intel....the sand slipped through Apple's fingers....
    Nov 7, 2012. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Innovation Is Stronger Than Ever, Valuation Very Attractive [View article]
    Hi Ashraf,

    Good job on the semiconductor article as well. I'd like to see Apple move in such a direction, but as you pointed out, there are some problems to overcome in such a change.

    With the iPad, some might feel stung a little....for me, I didn't buy it for some thrill that I have the newest device, I bought my iPad knowing what I was getting, a great Retina display, good wi-fi download speeds, 4G, etc.

    I got every bit of iPad that I paid for....and then some. I get constant use out of it, and I also realize that tech moves quickly. Actually I barely consider this an upgrade, not a 4 but an iPad 3S....lightning connector and faster chip. They wanted to widen the differential between the flagship iPad and the mini, reducing a canabalization effect....
    Nov 7, 2012. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple A Growth Stock Or A Dividend Stock Now? [View article]
    GE goes all the way back to Thomas Edison, I think....so I wasn't referring to any recent successes.

    I don't think that even Apple can claim having an unbroken line of successes. Even when SJ returned back to Apple, his beautifully engineered G4 cube flopped and was not a good time for Apple. You know me Tomas, and know that I can turn a critical eye to things, even Apple. But, for the most part, they do a whole lot right compared to what they do wrong.

    Although I see the smartphone market as maturing, I still feel that it has a room globally to expand taking the iPhone with it; of course, the global economic downturn has made things tougher for most big businesses. The more recent iPad has a ways to go in evolving before reaching a more mature state.

    Fortunately, Apple, FINALLY, is learning to profit from it's innovations....Apple's past is unfortunate, with them innovating or at least being the pioneer, only to have others reap the economic rewards. In Leander Khaney's book, he mentions that the Graphical User Interface was first commerically successful under the Mac....but Microsoft and Intel became the true beneficiaries. Apple invented the PDA, but Palm reaped the rewards...

    Finally, with introducing successful, new forms of the smartphone and tablet, Apple has learned to reap the economic rewards of their efforts. I hope to see them both develop the occasional groundbreaking product, but also continue to evolve and nurture their current lines of products....both activities require innovation and talent, which I believe they have....

    Regarding investing, if one has confidence in where they are going, then one can look at the market's underappreciation for the stock as buying opportunities, and then reduce back down some at some high points. But that takes confidence in what they are doing and where they are going....so other than that, then perhaps this has to be a trading stock to others who don't have confidence in their business.
    Nov 6, 2012. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    My comment was that you seem to have difficulty differentiating between your own opinion and truth....So, it is not that I am unidirectional, but that it is you who seems to be displaying cognitive inflexibility....

    Others who know me or what I have said, know that I am far from being simply a fan or one-sided. I have said some things critical of Apple as well; from being late on the mini and concerns over Forstall, to smaller issues like charging too much during the transition to the lightning connectors...In private conversations, I discuss what directions I would hope to see their strategies reach out to, instead of where they have gone. You are speaking in a state of ignorance when trying to categorize me...

    We don't agree with you, self-proclaimed "Christopher Columbus", so we are flat-worlders"? Arrogance personified...and grossly unsupported by your arguments thus far. You should be embarrassed by your comments and be apologizing to Gary J....a sharp-tongue doesn't equate to a good argument....
    Nov 6, 2012. 07:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) announces the sale of 3M iPads (total) in the 3 days since the launch of the iPad Mini. "Demand for iPad Mini exceeded the initial supply." Shares +1.3% premarket. (PR[View news story]
    Yep, better than not bad...
    1 million per day...that's got to be faster than they can be made...and just think, that is only a part of the demand, the WiFi only buyers....that doesn't include the 3G/4G models yet....

    That is far more than I would have expected since this is just an expansion into the smaller tablet space...
    Nov 6, 2012. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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