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Ronin.

Ronin.
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  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    @ Armchair

    Apparently, you have difficulty differentiating between reasoned arguments and emotional ones. However, reasoning doesn't matter if you have already made up your mind rather than basing your opinions on what emerges.

    "no matter how much rationalizing the bulls want to do".....You are already trying to counter any rational responses by attempting to paint them as "rationalizing".... If I was making bearish statements, you would probably consider them rational and well-reasoned...

    I disagree with some of the article, that sentiment will now be the driver, and fundamentals will not be driving stock price. I don't see where that is a "typical emotional response". Perhaps anything that sounds positive, you discount as emotional and irrational....

    Apple leapfrogged the current availlable ARM chips, designing their own CPU, patented and implemented their own in-cell touchscreen technology. That innovation may seem like tweaks to you, but they are both major accomplishments to push their products forward. Those are facts, not emotional responses like you feeling "fleeced" by Apple.....

    The tech sector has been hit hard if you haven't noticed, so you can look for higher beta stocks, but watch out below because most stocks that explode also implode. Some of us like established industry leaders with lots of growth to boot, and no, I'm not banking on some TV or something....the computer industry is not a fad. You are fooled by the compactness of mobile devices. Smartphones are here to stay, tablets are here to stay....we aren't talking "William Hung" or "Crocs".....these are computers and they will remain in various forms. Currently, Apple is doing well in PCs, tablets, and smartphones. Not good enough? You want them in mainframes as well?

    You think the stock will "bleed RIMM style"? Really? I'm not getting the impression that you know either company or thier business. But, you should trade your convictions then, good luck. "analytic BS" (sounds like you are not doing analysis at all), the market disagrees with us about value? I tired of complaining about valuation already, it will snap back in its own time, not when I want it to. I respect price, but you are cherry-picking a low....what if you looked at the beginning of the year until now? Recall that my point was that longer-term, valuation will matter, whereas in the short-term, sentiment rules....Timeframe matters....

    I pointed out many headwinds, as some of them subside and some tailwinds kick in, and when the real numbers come in on the iPhone 5 , the stock will probably be in a very different state....be patient, and observe what occurs...
    Oct 28, 2012. 08:56 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    Sentiment is important, but it is not everything. It is not likely to override fundamentals on a permenant basis....temporarily, sure. Recall the saying that "In the short run, the market is a voting machine....In the long run, it's a weighing machine"? I think it was Benjamin Graham. Short-term, sentiment rules, but not long-term.

    This is why last year, the price got so far disconnected from Apple's profits that when they were reminded in January (that, oh yeah, Apple makes a lot of money) the price ripped and roared forward to catch up, leading the chicken littles to claim "too far, too fast" before even 500...

    It is another tough stretch for AAPL stock, competitors from all around forego most if not all profits in attempts to compete with Apple, they are in a litigation war with their main component supplier, new in-cell screen tech has exacerbated supply issues, iP5 was overly criticized for every possible issue, the US economy has been hobbling, and Europe and China have slowed, the coming election uncertainty, the looming fiscal cliff....

    Given such major headwinds, Apple has done pretty well, from a long-term point of view....one has to give the stock a chance to let the weighing machine kick in....
    Oct 28, 2012. 05:59 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Might Be The Only Investment You Want To Own [View article]
    If I could pick one stock to be in for the next year, it would be this one, providing value, high growth, a decent dividend, a huge cash buffer, brand equity, room for expansion in China, and leading positions in the smartphone and tablet industries. No stock Iike this should be trading for less than mid 20 P/Es...
    Jul 17, 2012. 04:01 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why I Was So Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Well Skyler,
    That's why some of us benefit from the company than others....because we have a different understanding of Apple's prospects....even for those who sold much higher at 500, I was trying to explain that they are years too early...to me, Apple is the leading edge in two major waves....smartphones and tablets....Intel, is not involved...yet....

    With a relatively low PE, another major carrier to be added, the long awaited IPhone arriving, and a lot of cash, I see this as much lower risk than you seem to think...

    I've seen your articles and comments and I know that you think we are pretty toppy here at 660....but, hey, that's what makes a market right? We were buying the shares you were selling...

    ...watch what happens in the next several months.....we haven't seen nothin' yet....
    Aug 23, 2012. 08:05 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excessive Speculation In Apple Call Options? [View article]
    He probably meant to ask what the odds would be of rolling a 7 after it already came out 7 ten times in a row....the next roll is completely discrete and independent of the previous ten rolls....so the odds of the eleventh roll is the same as the first roll, if the dice aren't rigged....

    Fortunately for us, most events are not independent like that...

    in other words, those companies that have screwed up the last few times, are likely to keep screwing up....while those who have hit it out of the park over and over, will probably hit it out of the park again....we'll see what all these skeptics have to say when AAPL January earnings come out....
    Aug 17, 2012. 11:12 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Lose That Magic [View article]
    "Since Jobs' death, the improvements that Apple has introduced for its products have been functional ones: faster processors, more efficient batteries, Retina Displays"

    This seems to make sense, until looked at a little closer. Mind-blowing game changers are few and far between...even while Jobs was there as CEO or board director. The big changes came with the iPod and iTunes, then the iPad development, then the iPhone with apps, which was so good that Jobs put the iPad on hold for. These weren't frequent occurrences.

    Since the iPad and iPhone, even with Jobs, the changes to the products themselves have always been improvements: faster processors, more efficient batteries, Retina Displays, etc." before and after Steve Jobs. That has been good, nothings wrong with incremental improvements with an occassionally breakthrough...SJ wouldn't have given us more than that. I updated my phone AND my iPad because the Retina display was THAT good...btw, better batteries is a big plus...

    I think what you may be missing is the continually growing user base, ecosystem, Apple stores, cloud computing, and Mac OS integration with iOS. Apple isn't just after the products alone, but what surrounds the products and the synergies between devices....

    Oh, and one more thing...

    It can be speculated that Jobs never possessed the temperament that Cook has to work well with the China telecoms and the Chinese government. Such a relative difference between their personalities is difficult to quantify, but Jobs, despite his genious, was legendary for rubbing people the wrong way. I think that you underestimate Cook's contribution...
    Jul 25, 2012. 05:55 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Pricing Power? Questionable [View article]
    Gutone, In the Tablet space, it is the resources and cash to leverage as well as economies of scale that lead to advantage for Apple...the ecosystem and the available integrated products and the branding power are yet further advantages. As others have pointed out, this has made it difficult for competitors thus far to produce even sub-standard tablets at lower price points than $400, and still make any decent profit. Remember, it takes far more than components and labor to produce a tablet. Immense programming resources and developer support must be committed to such an endeavor..

    So far, the ones who show that they have any chance in the competition are those who need to be relatively unconcerned with near-term profit (Amazon and Google) and they will try to occupy a low price market with smaller screens and different specs, things that thus far Apple has shown less interested in, preferring to remain in higher margin and top-of -the line products to preserve their brand and image. Will Apple enter the $200 market, who knows, it is possible, as an attempt to support their platform and increase market share, but I wouldn't expect much profit to flow from that effort.

    For Google, it isn't just the Nexus 7, but the immense cost of developing and maintaining Android and it's ecosystem. they support all this on their ad business. Is this truly competition...or is it anti-competitive?

    These are potential threats in what seems like unfairly leveraging their monopolies in online ads and online commerce in attempts to crush competition in other markets. Will they prevail over Apple? We'll see, but so far Apple has had difficulty keeping up with product demand, so the Kindle didn't seem to curb demand. We will have to wait an see the effects of the attempts by Google and Microsoft...but it is far too early to make the call on Apple's pricing power loss due to these potential threats. The developments should make investors cautious and watchful...but certainly not bearish...
    Jul 2, 2012. 05:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again [View article]
    RS,
    You are recommending selling before possibly the biggest product launch ever, with a mini iPad also coming onto the scene....I am building my position, not trimming....now keep in mind, I am not a perma-bull....I sold my entire position prior to May and stayed out for more than a month because I saw risks and no positive catalysts....right now, compared to then, risk is reduced, and there are a bunch of catalysts dead ahead....Apple is seasonal, and now is the season....

    With Apple's efforts to produce a low cost iPad alternative as well as ensuring that their new Qualcomm chip accommodates China Mobile's network says the opposite to me....that Apple is doing much to accommodate China....
    Aug 24, 2012. 04:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Don't Care About Apple's Earnings Call [View article]
    Actually, he said that Apple's guidance says nothing, and that the analysts have been all over the map, also failing to give a useful consensus to consider...that's valid commentary...
    Jul 20, 2012. 08:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) has seen some ex-employees take shots at it lately. Former sales exec David Sabotta criticized Tim Cook's people skills, hiring acumen, and passion for technology. Former engineer Dan Crow argued the same top-down business structure that allowed Steve Jobs to build an empire is now a liability, since no one can fill Jobs' shoes. And last month, Steve Wozniak called Apple "arrogant" for refusing to make a larger iPhone. "Not all people want the same thing. A lot of people want the big screens." [View news story]
    I find  Sabotta's criticisms interesting in light of SJ's "people skills" in calling people's work "sh*t", and how he exercized hiring acumen by bringing in Sculley who preceded to dismantle everything "Apple" about the company after he was gone....

    As far as passion for technology, the center of gravity for that aspect has clearly moved from Jobs to other people in the company, Perhaps being most strongly led by Jony Ive. Passion for the products is ingrained in the culture of the company....and Cook was smart enough to know that this was not one of Steve Jobs' roles that he himself could fill, and decided to give more breadth to Ive's position within the company....
    Nov 10, 2012. 10:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falling On Missed iPhone 5 Sales Estimates: Opportunity To Buy At A Lower Price [View article]
    Madeleinelee, I think that is incorrect...with the cash building approaching 4X what it was with SJ at the helm, Jobs would also be saddled by the responsibility of managing and distributing funds....SJ may have settled on the same solutions.... the share buyback only is meant to offset employee distributions, and so it maintains the status quo with the amount of stock, rather than diluting the stock....in other words, it is more a non-action rather than a proactive step to utilize cash....just another way to pay salaries...To me, neither of these actions are a mistake...why do you see them as disastrous? Merely because you think SJ would do it differently? That doesn't qualify as a reason or logical analysis....too fixated on some SJ mystique....

    As far as when to release the iPhone, I think that selling 5 million over a weekend, with more everyday, is not a disaster either...why should it be? If you waited for all supply to be perfect, you may wait past the holidays....that would be a tremendous mistake....the phone was ready to be produced by the millions, so it was ready....you wanted more perhaps, but 5m is a lot of phones for three days....

    As far as your selling of the stock....it important that you make your own decisions on these trades according to your convictions....since you so much doubt what Cook is doing then selling seems appropriate ....I will be adding rather than selling, based on the profits that seem to be already beginning to flow in....eventually, the stock will have to follow the earnings...it is just a matter of time...
    Sep 26, 2012. 05:39 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If Steve Jobs were still alive, would the new map application on the iPhone 5 be such an unmitigated disaster?" asks Joe Nocera. It's a question many others are also asking, given the huge backlash to iOS 6 Maps. But to Nocera, a potentially bigger concern is that Jobs' absence will limit the risk-taking that drove Apple's (AAPL) meteoric rise. Joshua Topolsky: "The iPhone 5 is unquestionably the best iPhone ever made ... but right now Apple seems to be in a holding pattern, too comfortable or too scared to take real chances." (also: I, II[View news story]
    Hey, it just happens to be the "chicken little" story of choice for the media and writers....when the next iPad comes out, it'll be some other thing that signifies the disintegration of Apple....
    Sep 23, 2012. 07:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excessive Speculation In Apple Call Options? [View article]
    How can you say too far too fast? What is the criteria for to far...or too fast? You have one?

    AAPL has been trading in a range for a long time. It reached 640 many months ago in April, and has been consolidating ever since. You guys can start screaming "PARABOLIC" again...I won't be listening, because last time, I got another 100+ points after that was being tossed around....

    Sit on the sidelines then, Mark.... you can watch us either profit, or crash and burn....
    Aug 17, 2012. 10:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scott Forstall's departure from Apple (AAPL) was "not his decision," a source tells the WSJ. Moreover, sources claim Forstall has clashed with other execs (this is supported by past reports), and was complaining about a lack of big ideas from his unit - some outside of Apple have been complaining about this too. John Gruber: "Forstall was an obstacle to collaboration ... his responsibilities are being divided between four men who foster collaboration." Erica Ogg: "It's Tim Cook's Apple now." [View news story]
    I second that!

    Cook has surprised and impressed me. He steadied the ship when SJ was ill, much improved the supply lines and creatively used cash to strengthen the supply partners capacities to handle the much heavier volumes that the iPhones and iPads required, bought up shipping during the holidays that boosted Apple availability and stifled competitors, initiated a dividend and buy back, approached China Mobile to negotiate a deal, personally went to Foxconn to work on the worker abuse, legally pursued Samsung, took responsibility and apologized for the Maps problems, worked hard to shift component supply away from Samsung, and now, giving the boot to the most problematic managers.....hey, I give Cook an "A"
    Oct 30, 2012. 02:04 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) announces iOS chief Scott Forstall is leaving the company next year; Mac OS chief Craig Federighi will now also be in charge of iOS. Also, retail chief John Browett is leaving. Forstall, once seen as a potential successor to Tim Cook, had come under fire over iOS 6's Maps app and (to a lesser extent) Siri. Browett was hired only in January - many were puzzled by the hiring, given Browett's track record at U.K. retailer Dixons. [View news story]
    No SoCal,
    Those were the two execs that I had the most concerns about....both guys were problems IMO....

    I think this is a very good move to get the Apple team cohesive again....
    Oct 29, 2012. 06:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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