LilBob

Retail Firms at Risk for Bankruptcy

Goodyear's retail operations should go the way of the dinosaur. Goodyear makes great tires but their service centers are lousy. They should focus on their core business and get out of retail completely.

Rite Aid should go out of business because-from what I've seen-they are not cost competitive. It appears the company expanded their real estate portfolio too rapidly and then had to try to make up the difference by jacking up their prices. You can frequently find the same or comparable products in other drug stores for 10 to 20% less.

Sprint Nextel is another one that should focus on their core business: telephone service, and stop hemorrhaging money on those little mall kiosks.

Macy's should have stayed in New York City. The existence of Macy's as a nationwide chain was based upon suburbanites who thought their endlessly appreciating homes would support a lifestyle of cheap chinese crap with stick on designer logos.

I'll leave my comments at those four. This is pure market evolution. Unless those four companies can come up with some damn fine restructuring plans, the marketplace is better off without them. Just because something exists right now doesn't mean it should always exist.

Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's

And that new world is the next step in tech Cos. At least as I see it. The companies that put control back in the hands of consumers will be the winners in this new consumer phase we're entering: cars with diagnostic software and USB ports so you can run your own diagnostics and bring back the day of the shade tree mechanic; publishing houses with volumes that explain how that computer works and how to fix it up and tweak it yourself; appliances that you can go online and download repair manuals and parts lists without needing a dealer number. A lot of this stuff won't appeal to baby boomers. It may not even appeal so much to Gen Y kids, who've become completely used to having everything done by a tech. But I think that one could have some real success in marketing to Gen-X-ers (Who are now approaching the income rich portion of their career cycles) by going with a "do it yourself," mentality.


On Dec 22 07:53 PM cos1000 wrote:

> I'm not much of a fan of Eric Savatz, or Barron's Tech Trader, and
> reproducing it here doesn't indicate much but a slow day on the Tech
> News Front.
>
> Having said that, I do find the Posts here both interesting and insightful.
> LilBob, your view of tech is forward in its thinking but, remember
> that not everyone wants to deal with the "workings" of a thing, they
> just want it to work, simplistically. Throw away products that can
> be recycled are a part of this genre. The day of changing a "Tube",
> and I am being facetious, are a thing of the past. Do it your "Selfers"
> also have a place but are not mainstream. The simplicity in Form
> and Function that you talk about is the norm, for everyone not just
> 40 "sumthins". Looking Good is not good enough, even with tech. It
> has to look good and be exceptionally well designed in its Function
> to survive our open access consumers. The day that one device can
> sit on a coffee table, that everyone in the room can make work, is
> the day that we truly have a new world.

Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's

Absolutely Homer. Open Office 3.0 is already making a dent in sales of Microsoft's Office Product line-I personally have no intention of ever doling out the cash for MS Office products ever again. Ubuntu Linux has reached the point where it's being installed on compact laptops and may soon start to make its way into the consumer desktop market.

I was also thinking of companies like Dell that use proprietary internals. I had to replace the motherboard on my Dell recently and because the case had a unique geometry, I couldn't use an off the shelf motherboard, I had to get the original Dell to fit the case or else run into cooling problems. That part happened to cose more than twice what a comparable Asus board would have cost. That sort of thing isn't going to fly with value oriented consumers.

I definitely expect the Open Source development movement, which is really a throwback to the early days of collaborative sharing and DARPA-net in terms of spirit will pose a real threat to tech entrepreneurs billionaire fantasies.


On Dec 21 11:33 PM Homer II wrote:

> Lilbob said, "... Those firms that insist on proprietary software
> and parts are going to see their market share disappear. This is
> going to be an interesting time because some firms that became truly
> massive over the course of the last 15 to 20 years may disappear
> rather quickly while Open Source will make a comeback."
>
> And when (not IF) that occurs, the crosshairs will be squarely centered
> upon Micro$oft.

Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's

The real problem with tech is that we've reached a point in development where user's are able to derive enough social utility from devices they already own that new products aren't as appealing. Everyone should have seen this coming. There's a growing Open Access movement out there for older software that uses up less of a Personal Computer's system resources, high definition television has exceeded the point where the average 40-something is able to perceive the difference between a DVD movie and a high-def DVD movie, and people have in large part come to the realization that "constant connectivity," can be tremendously annoying.

This is one of those "Our Iceberg Is Melting," moments where the ones who are successful are those who recognize the change and adapt. Those vendors who offer units with readily available replacement parts, easy software compatibility and flexible service plans are going to be successful. Those firms that insist on proprietary software and parts are going to see their market share disappear. This is going to be an interesting time because some firms that became truly massive over the course of the last 15 to 20 years may disappear rather quickly while Open Source will make a comeback. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a pushback against technology.

The Baroque era of European history was characterized by tremendous ornamentation in all things: music, architecture, clothing, etc. The Baroque era was succeeded by the Classical era, a period of relative minimalism in European culture. We've been living in a technologically baroque age. Don't be too surprised if we see a push towards a quieter more old fashioned existence-one that doesn't include so much beeping and buzzing and pointing and clicking.

The way to succeed in tech nowadays isn't to push new features or try to generate perceived needs for the stuff your engineers just thought up, it is to focus on performance, reliability and economy.