A 7% Monthly Dividend That Can Move UP With Inflation [View instapost]
PFL may be okay for this investing environment but their recent rights offering took a lot of people by surprise and knocked the stock down about 20%. If buying this, use active stops. Who knows what other "events" may happen? Oh, I know the answer to that!
Eight Things I Think About Current Markets [View article]
Everything above makes sense to me.....(not that the market will agree). There is obviously a lot of interest in Junk and Munis because the rates are in the 6-12% range. If we have deflation, rates will likely remain low. So I'm not sure I agree that high yield items will tank if we have deflation. Thanks, Willydo
Markets Call EU's Bluff: Sliding Closer Toward the Abyss, And Implications [View article]
I was short the Euro and then there was some kind of agreement and I had to jump out. Then went long dollar and had to jump out. I'm going to avoid direct involvement in currencies as every other day there is a new announcement. Thanks for the interesting article. We have to watch this situation closely.
Phil, You are right on; we are between a rock and a hard place. People will not be able to expect each year to be better than the last and the future is not as bright. On the other hand, I am happy to see an end to "the age of Bling" and overspending at every economic level.
I wonder what the difference in PE was. Was 1995 starting from a much better value? I remember that in 95 I was just getting interested in investing and when I looked at the charts at that time, I just could not imagine the market going straight up as it appeared then. It just depends on the how it is scaled.
Phil, Excellent article on energy savings....fuel in particular. I'm afraid our legislators are just too concerned for themselves rather than the country to do anything. There are no Statesmen any more that actually want do what is best for the country. But as you note, the first step is do declare marshal law so you don't have to deal with congress (or the people). Your proposals and logic make way too much sense for the Me Generation to consider seriously. Willydo
On the hour: Dow +0.19%. 10-yr +0.11%. Euro -0.93% vs. dollar. Crude -0.69% to $80.31. Gold -1.01% to $1131.80. [View news story]
I have been watching the 10 year bond (IEF) and note it is up today even though jobless claims came in lower or at least in line with expectations.
Most of the headlines today acknowledge better job growth yet the 10 year is up. I am in IEF because I believe deflation will actually be the problem. Any ideas why IEF is going up given the first good news on the job front for quite a while? Thanks Willydo
India Joins the Global Search for Commodities [View article]
Right on comments at the lead in.....we would have an uproar if we formed a national energy policy or tried to contain health care costs. And we could never have Paul V telling the banks what to do so we would not have our grandchildren go through this again.....or....or. as you say "oh well". That is my sentiment too...what else should we expect from the "me" generation which many of us here belong to? It is all for me....to hell with everyone else. Let them eat cake as Phil says. Willydo
The U.S.: Land of the Free and Home of a Nearly Failed Treasury Auction of Its Own [View article]
So what should a person be in? In a flight to quality last year it was Treasuries but now that IS the problem. Same for the dollar but it would be in trouble as well. Gold doesn't seem to be much of a haven either. Oil is oversupplied right now.
So I guess just be in cash, SDS and Floating Rate funds?
The Coming of Real, Weak, Imperceptible Economic Growth [View article]
I'm a bit confused by the ECRI data. The comments text says there is no way we are going to have a double dip recession but then in the next sentence it says we will see economic growth start to decrease.
"double-dip recession are nowhere in sight. The continued easing in WLI growth indicates that U.S. economic growth will start decelerating in the coming months."
So if the current growth is anemic and now it will start to decelerate, could that not lead to a double dip??? This is the first time, btw, that the comments from ECRI have been less than positive. Don't both of the indicators look like they are topping out?
Finally, I wonder how reliable the ECRI inflation data is. I have not seen much evidence of inflation or even a catalyst. If you buy the New Normal, we have overcapacity in just about everything. If the inflation data is as reliable as the business cycle data (which seems quite good) I may more seriously consider inflation hedges (which I have not really done so far).
As always, thanks for your analysis and breaking down all the data. Willydo
What ECRI Is Saying About the Markets [View article]
John,
Thanks for the update....I also have been relying on ECRI as it seemed to support the trend and the market last year when things turned up. The leading and coincident look like they are rolling over.
ECRI noted that the economy will start to decelerate in coming months....Wow...I am not surprised it may slow down, but this is the first time in months that they have suggested a slowing. I think this is serious. Willydo
Still Waiting for Real Economic Growth [View article]
Steve, As always, a great source of information in one place with the logic that pulls it all together. I noticed that the NEW housing data was down again to recession lows. As many know, it is the new home sales that affect the economy in a positive way as they stimulate builders, material, workers, furnishings and so on. Existing home sales just transfer ownership from one party to another. Thanks, Willydo
A 7% Monthly Dividend That Can Move UP With Inflation [View instapost]
Willydo
Eight Things I Think About Current Markets [View article]
Everything above makes sense to me.....(not that the market will agree).
There is obviously a lot of interest in Junk and Munis because the rates are in the 6-12% range. If we have deflation, rates will likely remain low. So I'm not sure I agree that high yield items will tank if we have deflation.
Thanks,
Willydo
Markets Call EU's Bluff: Sliding Closer Toward the Abyss, And Implications [View article]
Thanks for the interesting article. We have to watch this situation closely.
Willydo
Thank Jobs It’s Friday! [View instapost]
You are right on; we are between a rock and a hard place. People will not be able to expect each year to be better than the last and the future is not as bright. On the other hand, I am happy to see an end to "the age of Bling" and overspending at every economic level.
Willydo
Risk Appetite Is Alive and Well in Markets [View article]
Thanks for your comments...you were absent for a while so your day to day input is welcome.
Willydo
SPY: A Perfect March [View article]
I remember that in 95 I was just getting interested in investing and when I looked at the charts at that time, I just could not imagine the market going straight up as it appeared then. It just depends on the how it is scaled.
Willydo
America's Commodity Crisis, 2010 Edition [View article]
Excellent article on energy savings....fuel in particular. I'm afraid our legislators are just too concerned for themselves rather than the country to do anything. There are no Statesmen any more that actually want do what is best for the country. But as you note, the first step is do declare marshal law so you don't have to deal with congress (or the people).
Your proposals and logic make way too much sense for the Me Generation to consider seriously.
Willydo
On the hour: Dow +0.19%. 10-yr +0.11%. Euro -0.93% vs. dollar. Crude -0.69% to $80.31. Gold -1.01% to $1131.80. [View news story]
Most of the headlines today acknowledge better job growth yet the 10 year is up. I am in IEF because I believe deflation will actually be the problem. Any ideas why IEF is going up given the first good news on the job front for quite a while?
Thanks
Willydo
India Joins the Global Search for Commodities [View article]
That is my sentiment too...what else should we expect from the "me" generation which many of us here belong to? It is all for me....to hell with everyone else. Let them eat cake as Phil says.
Willydo
The U.S.: Land of the Free and Home of a Nearly Failed Treasury Auction of Its Own [View article]
So what should a person be in? In a flight to quality last year it was Treasuries but now that IS the problem. Same for the dollar but it would be in trouble as well. Gold doesn't seem to be much of a haven either. Oil is oversupplied right now.
So I guess just be in cash, SDS and Floating Rate funds?
Good article...Thanks
Willydo
The Coming of Real, Weak, Imperceptible Economic Growth [View article]
I'm a bit confused by the ECRI data. The comments text says there is no way we are going to have a double dip recession but then in the next sentence it says we will see economic growth start to decrease.
"double-dip recession are nowhere in sight. The continued easing in WLI growth indicates that U.S. economic growth will start decelerating in the coming months."
So if the current growth is anemic and now it will start to decelerate, could that not lead to a double dip???
This is the first time, btw, that the comments from ECRI have been less than positive. Don't both of the indicators look like they are topping out?
Finally, I wonder how reliable the ECRI inflation data is. I have not seen much evidence of inflation or even a catalyst. If you buy the New Normal, we have overcapacity in just about everything. If the inflation data is as reliable as the business cycle data (which seems quite good) I may more seriously consider inflation hedges (which I have not really done so far).
As always, thanks for your analysis and breaking down all the data.
Willydo
What ECRI Is Saying About the Markets [View article]
Thanks for the update....I also have been relying on ECRI as it seemed to support the trend and the market last year when things turned up. The leading and coincident look like they are rolling over.
ECRI noted that the economy will start to decelerate in coming months....Wow...I am not surprised it may slow down, but this is the first time in months that they have suggested a slowing. I think this is serious.
Willydo
Still Waiting for Real Economic Growth [View article]
As always, a great source of information in one place with the logic that pulls it all together.
I noticed that the NEW housing data was down again to recession lows. As many know, it is the new home sales that affect the economy in a positive way as they stimulate builders, material, workers, furnishings and so on. Existing home sales just transfer ownership from one party to another.
Thanks,
Willydo
Thank GDP It's Friday! [View article]
Great article as usual. I look forward to Phil's comments.. there are often bits of insight that do not seem to be found anywhere else.
Thanks,
Willydo
ZIOPHARM Update [View instapost]
Thanks for the information...good news.
Willydo