davenerven's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/223112/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/162654-picking-goldman-s-brain-for-long-short-strategies?source=feed#comment-687036 687036 Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:02:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99535-was-friday-s-rally-just-a-hedge-fund-short-squeeze?source=feed#comment-280494 280494 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 11:01:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99473-no-safe-havens-but-plenty-of-bargains?source=feed#comment-280357 280357 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 08:22:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99533-comparing-this-past-week-to-the-87-crash?source=feed#comment-280354 280354 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 08:18:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99535-was-friday-s-rally-just-a-hedge-fund-short-squeeze?source=feed#comment-280350 280350 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 08:14:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89610-counterparty-risk-management-how-could-so-many-be-so-wrong-for-so-long?source=feed#comment-224706 224706
I have always taken a holistic view on risk, and for my bank, I have always advised against taking on these products, as the SUM of the risks (if calculated correctly) causes risk profile to rise exponentially to a point where the paper becomes too expensive to buy. Eg. mortgage default risk, issuer risk, guarantor risk, interest rate risk, economic risk, trend risk. People forgot about all that and just bought AAA paper because they did not do (or want to do) their homework. Or maybe their risk management team did not consider all the factors that go into a proper Monte-Carlo simulation for such products. Why was this not done? That will always puzzle me.

In short, despite what many people think, risk is not a business area that can be easily standardised, and in my experience, there are far too many "risk" people around who do not understand how to apply the basic management rules for risk, especially for new structured products. ]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 05:21:30 -0400
I have always taken a holistic view on risk, and for my bank, I have always advised against taking on these products, as the SUM of the risks (if calculated correctly) causes risk profile to rise exponentially to a point where the paper becomes too expensive to buy. Eg. mortgage default risk, issuer risk, guarantor risk, interest rate risk, economic risk, trend risk. People forgot about all that and just bought AAA paper because they did not do (or want to do) their homework. Or maybe their risk management team did not consider all the factors that go into a proper Monte-Carlo simulation for such products. Why was this not done? That will always puzzle me.

In short, despite what many people think, risk is not a business area that can be easily standardised, and in my experience, there are far too many "risk" people around who do not understand how to apply the basic management rules for risk, especially for new structured products. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86801-american-express-calls-investment-banks-bluff?source=feed#comment-213692 213692
For me, the pertinent statement is from AXP: Chenault continued, “In light of the magnitude of the negative economic trends and our experience, we now believe the economic weakness in the US will likely worsen throughout the remainder of the year and negatively impact credit and business trends ... we now expect that our lending write-off rate in the third and fourth quarter will be higher than June levels.”

Add this to what Jamie Dimon has been telling us, again without deceit, and we basically saw 2 straight dudes calling the credit situation as it is (and it ain't looking too good), versus a crowd of shysters and bottom-feeding pumpers selling snake oil.

Saying this though, I really don't want to see those criminal naked shorts back again. Let the markets find their own true levels without any more hysterical bashing or pumping.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:49:14 -0400
For me, the pertinent statement is from AXP: Chenault continued, “In light of the magnitude of the negative economic trends and our experience, we now believe the economic weakness in the US will likely worsen throughout the remainder of the year and negatively impact credit and business trends ... we now expect that our lending write-off rate in the third and fourth quarter will be higher than June levels.”

Add this to what Jamie Dimon has been telling us, again without deceit, and we basically saw 2 straight dudes calling the credit situation as it is (and it ain't looking too good), versus a crowd of shysters and bottom-feeding pumpers selling snake oil.

Saying this though, I really don't want to see those criminal naked shorts back again. Let the markets find their own true levels without any more hysterical bashing or pumping.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86784-news-flash-major-market-turns-aren-t-announced-in-advance?source=feed#comment-213682 213682 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:32:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85103-bill-ackman-s-plan-to-save-fannie-and-freddie?source=feed#comment-212792 212792 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:50:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85906-banks-is-this-the-biggest-bear-squeeze-in-history?source=feed#comment-211303 211303
megamata.com/forum/vie...

He would not advise clients to even do their IPOs in the USA. What has the SEC done to the financial markets in the US? Who is accountable? We need a guaranteed stock delivery LAW NOW.]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:41:07 -0400
megamata.com/forum/vie...

He would not advise clients to even do their IPOs in the USA. What has the SEC done to the financial markets in the US? Who is accountable? We need a guaranteed stock delivery LAW NOW.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85906-banks-is-this-the-biggest-bear-squeeze-in-history?source=feed#comment-211299 211299 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:37:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86003-a-buy-the-loser-rally?source=feed#comment-211278 211278
Read this please. It's worth your time, I promise.

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Read this please. It's worth your time, I promise.

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Then if you want to see more, have a look at this:

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Then sign this...

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Read the following please. It's worth your time, I promise.

www.deepcapture.com/

Then if you want to see more, have a look at this:

www.deepcapturethemovi...

And another site about the subject:

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Then sign this...

www.petitiononline.com...]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:23:51 -0400
Read the following please. It's worth your time, I promise.

www.deepcapture.com/

Then if you want to see more, have a look at this:

www.deepcapturethemovi...

And another site about the subject:

megamata.com/forum/vie...

Then sign this...

www.petitiononline.com...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86067-banks-hit-bottom-cramers-mad-money-7-21-08?source=feed#comment-211262 211262
Read this please. It's worth your time, I promise.

www.deepcapture.com/

Then if you want to see more, have a look at this:

www.deepcapturethemovi...

And another site about the subject:

megamata.com/forum/vie...

Then sign this...

www.petitiononline.com...]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:03:41 -0400
Read this please. It's worth your time, I promise.

www.deepcapture.com/

Then if you want to see more, have a look at this:

www.deepcapturethemovi...

And another site about the subject:

megamata.com/forum/vie...

Then sign this...

www.petitiononline.com...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85906-banks-is-this-the-biggest-bear-squeeze-in-history?source=feed#comment-210361 210361
www.deepcapture.com/

Then watch this, if your interest has been aroused.

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Then sign this please:

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www.deepcapture.com/

Then watch this, if your interest has been aroused.

www.deepcapturethemovi...

Then sign this please:

www.petitiononline.com...]]>