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Just Some Guy

Just Some Guy
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  • Vodafone: Ready To Shine With 4G [View article]
    I think VOD is doing all the right things, but their current price and dividend do not seem justified by their *current* business. I do have some optimism they will grow into it, and I might nibble at the stock at these levels ... except I'm already long at slightly higher prices.

    I would point out that VZ and T are about to suffer a pretty big dip in revenues due to price wars in the US. What this does to margin and profits will depend on a lot of accounting tricks. I guess there's still a little bit of growth available in the US market, but it's going to be tight - VOD got out at a great time!
    Aug 21 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Target's New Strategy To Win Back Customers [View article]
    I'm sure they are doing a lot more than just extending hours, keeping the right retail mix is a constant challenge good times and bad. Long a few shares of TGT.
    Aug 19 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    ps - yes Watson was very cool but it's really a Siri/Google lite. Deep Blue the chess computer was kewl too but it's not clear where the profit is in it.
    Aug 19 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    First my recitation, that I am amazed IBM is still an operating company at all, they have fallen so far from the forefront on any actual product, capability, or mind-share. So, I suspect this may be Buffett's greatest blunder. He may see it as a profitable liquidation venture over ten years, sell off a few divisions for a profit and close down the rest. No doubt the patent portfolio is worth several billion, the way these things go. For a zombie company IBM's financials have been amazingly good. Frankly I don't believe them and suspect a dozen tin-foil hat conspiracies. I would not touch the stock long, and I glance at it every now and then to see if I want to short it.
    Aug 19 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target to keep stores open later [View news story]
    And the places that I do occassionally shop after 10PM are almost always the local grocery that I can walk to, for some obscure item or a desperately needed snack, so the number of people shopping in big-box stores has to be smaller yet.

    Still, if Walmart does it - why do they?
    Aug 17 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Problems Within Procter & Gamble's Long-Term Future [View article]
    Of course it's yield chasing.

    I've been hearing this generic replacement brands story for ten years now, and I'm curious, doesn't PG make some of those private labels and generics? I know that's commonly done in the food sector.
    Aug 16 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Acquisition Of LSI's Networking Business To Boost Its Presence In IoT [View article]
    Would like some specifics on what Axxia actually has or does, or is this really spending $650m real money for a PR release and a few dubious patents?
    Aug 15 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Can Still Deliver More Upside [View article]
    So why has the stock price action been so weak the last few days?
    Aug 14 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan downgraded at Stifel, Grasberg export restart is priced in [View news story]
    I've noticed the stock price falling recently even while PM prices rising not to mention political stability falling. Mystified. If FCX declines to the 200ma I buy more!
    Aug 14 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel details Broadwell, promises big power savings [View news story]
    If they can get the 14nm and new designs up in yield, this may be the biggest leap Intel has made in many years. And I suspect the following "toc" will be almost as great. If this tic and toc work, even if they take an extra year or two, Intel business should be great for five years and more, stock should at least double from here. But they are not there yet.

    Low power is increasingly important even for server chips, when bought and in truckloads by companies like Google and operated en mass, power consumption and cooling are big expenses, Google might happily replace all existing hardware with 14nm chips - and then again when and if the 10nm come out. Imagine the money involved. And enough to get Intel at least into the race on mobile, even if they never make a net dime off of it, just to defend the platform.
    Aug 11 07:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Target's Data Breach Obscuring Bigger Problems? [View article]
    Good analysis overall. I remain long and somewhat bullish, stock is fairly valued here net of risk, and I might buy more if it gets pulled down in a market correction. I want to see them fix the Canada deal, of course.
    Aug 11 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Dreamliner engine fails over the Atlantic [View news story]
    Oh it does on the front page, doesn't it? LOL. I thought I'd misread it.
    Aug 11 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Investors Should Be Concerned [View article]
    In today's yield-driven market yes you buy a PE of 17 for a good healthy cash cow, with growth just pacing inflation. In fact you buy a PE of 17 for an otherwise healthy cash cow even if growth is slightly negative.

    But MCD is likely to take a bit more of hit in the next quarter or three, until we see how things turn out in China and Russia, and if earnings do continue to fall then the price will fall accordingly *and* the multiple may have to shrink a bit, so stock price movement is magnified. Even if they can maintain the dividend the stock is likely to trend down - market underperform - for the next year. And then if they cut the dividend even a few pennies, then watch out.
    Aug 11 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Outlook Under Examination [View article]
    Piffle. I'm in and out of Target stores all the time, and in a dozen different stores all over Los Angeles I've never seen gross disorganization, overall the places are very well run - to the naked eye. If this is not true all over, or perhaps in early morning hours, then yes no doubt something can be brought up to standard. But I've heard nobody say this is a significant issue.

    What matters are macroeconomics, strategic placement, and then details of execution in store design, etc. Target *is* a big-box store so of course it can't be shrunk, and who says it should be? Are you declaring their entire business model obsolete, on the basis of a few points off recent quarters? Come on now. Their model has been their number one success factor over the past twenty years. Doesn't mean it *won't* go obsolete at some point, but it will take serious argument and worse numbers than these.

    Of course the whole Canada thing is another question, but I'll pass on that for now. The question is whether there's a successful model in the US for Canada to build on.

    Retail is increasingly difficult for big-ticket items, and Target had some good years maybe 2005-2010 selling big-screen tvs and digital cameras, but this was always gravy, if you ask me. They've been trying to move into low-end home furnishings but that's hard to do in the Target format, and I doubt it will have the dollar per square foot success that the electronics did. Even CD/DVD sales are a losing category now that everybody downloads instead. It's not Target's fault that these markets have evaporated, but they do affect the bottom line.

    I wonder if more customer service might not be a direction for improvement, that's what Best Buy finally decided and I think it was correct - not easy and no quick fix but the only way for them to survive. Something other than generic. This is pretty basic advice which I'm sure they consider, and the good news is there are opportunities like that in several directions.
    Aug 11 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    You seem to have wandered beyond the "current crisis" topic, but I will not. The Asian markets are opening stronger on Monday as if they are happy that the US is bombing Iraq, the Chinese are building lighthouses on disputed islands, the US is being invaded from an open southern border, Israel and Gaza are attacking each other, Ukraine and Russia are very nearly at open war, Syria and Libya remain in bloody chaos, and some kind of coup seems to be going in in Baghdad.

    If Yellen wants to talk about complacent markets, I think we've just hit a new high in that.
    Aug 11 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment