Consider_this

GM's Volt Could Earn a 230 MPG Rating

This is the (first step) to the future of energy independence.

1. Pure EV.
2. Electricity from non-petroleum sources, preferably solar/wind/ocean.
=
3. Drastically reduced oil demand. No more shipping billions of USD per day to oil producing countries.

If this really becomes mainstream (It's hard at 40K). USD/USA may become the strongest yet.

This car won't be for everyone, but look at the big picture:

1. 80% of commuters drive 40miles or less to work
2. Anyone of these 80% commuters drive a Volt, their *OIL* consumption drops to near zero.

This is enough to cause a staggering change in oil market's demand; dropping to zero for majority of commuting, and only use oil for occasional vacation/long distance is a huge deal. If anything, it'll cause over-supply of oil.

And people who scream about power sources, know your facts:

www.eia.doe.gov/cnea
f/electricity/epm/tabl...

1.
Liquid Petroleum as a source of electricity is barely 1.1% in the USA, partly due to the high prices now.

2. coal/coke/natural gas accounts for about 50% of electricity. In the USA, we're like the Saudi Arabia for Coal/NG. Recall I argued for energy independence, so keep that in mind.

3. Electricity plants are way more efficient at energy extraction than internal combustion engine. Electric motors are also more efficient, with a very smooth torque curve possible. Simply shifting to electric use gains efficiency and reduction in pollution if everything else is static.

4. Due to difference in net energy efficiency, economies of scale in a powerplant, each unit of kinetic energy (the only energy that matters) from an EV source is up to 10 times cheaper than ICE petroleum based kinetic energy, if you use today's electric prices. Even if you assume electricity will QUADRUPLE (you must be really mad to assume that), it will still be 2.5 times cheaper than petroleum standards today, this is assuming GAS prices don't go up!

5.About 25% and increasing (due to cap and trade) of the electricity sources will come from clean sources (incl Nuclear), and cap and trade have no/positive effect on energy costs from these sources.

6. This technology is also future proof. Anything can be converted into Electricity. If a cheap source of hydrogen can be found, it can be made into a fuel cell and directly power electricity to the EV.

7. Electricity is the most efficient way to transport energy, better than even transporting Oil.

8. If majority of the Volt owners recharge at night, then we're not really straining the electric grid, because it's using idle capacity that's going to waste anyway. This actually smooths out electric demand and makes it easier to plan and maintain.

9. Price is a big problem now, but remember, once you go into ELECTRIC world, Moore's law does play an effect, because its a lot easier to innovate electrically than mechanically. So I would expect prices to drop every 18 months like laptops / PCs.

10. People don't get the doomsday scenario I mentioned. If this is wildly successful, it truly can topple the middle eastern ruling parties and cause social programs to collapse. If Middle East descends into chaos and even more extremist than now, that would be a very bad thing for everyone. Many prophecies stated that the end of the world would originate from middle east. I hope Volt isn't the trigger for it. This is a REAL CON that I see from this product, if it takes off.

11. Inventing Volt is *NOT* taking away any gas engines! In fact, gas owners should rejoice as less people will now compete for limited supply of gas.

China's Bubbles and Demographic Trends

I've never seen so many shouting and yelling about China stocks being overvalued in my life. There're 5-6 articles on this position alone on the front page *PER DAY* on SA. This is similar to what you find on blogs, forums, financial websites.

If it's due to "concern" and kind advice for the investors, this quantity of unsolicited is giving me a lot of "warm and fuzzy". Wow, such caring words from so many people who want to look out for my interests! Words from people on Wall Street and financial companies! Ah... I must express gratitude at their graciousness and concern.

On the other hand, the cynical side of me can't shake the feeling that some fund managers and/or hedgies have missed the boat (and missing the market average, and they're due to be compared to the average soon, as Q3 closes), and are trying to "talk down" the market so they and their clients can get on.

Or it could be shorts with a bearish position, trying to talk down the market to alleviate existing losses or make new positions.

I don't doubt that viewpoints on "bubble or not" exists all the time, but when articles clamor endlessly and without solicitations to incite selling, esp in great quantities and with forceful assertions, I tend to disbelieve.

Call me a media skeptic.

China's Growth an Accounting 'Miracle'

This article and the electricity quote is misleading. Since the author is going to be quoting from "the American Enterprise Institute", lets try a balance from the opposite end of the bias: "Xinhua news".

news.xinhuanet.com/eng...

" The slowing demand was mainly contributed by the industrial sector, according to CEC data. About 3.43 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity was used by the industry last year, up 3.83 percent from a year earlier, slower than the overall social power consumption growth rate for the first time.

Electricity used by the service industry and the rural and urban residents continued rapid growth, as the group was less affected by the financial crisis. "

There. The switch from export oriented economy to an internally facing one boosts "Service" economy and shrinks the exporting factories. This will cause a dip in raw electricity demand, when in face, the service sector's electricity use is growing very rapidly.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two bias.

What happened to USA's switch from manufacturing to to service economy happened over decades, China is having to do it in a few years; hence electricity supply/demand didn't have a chance to adapt.

GDP can grow despite electricity decline, precisely because of the switch to internal demand; as well as infrastructure construction, which doesn't take as much electricity as factories. Check the demand in raw concrete, copper and steel to see the truer picture.

The recovery is not all fake.

China's Demand Makes Old Signposts Useless

The fear that China's brewing a bubble is overblown. USA went through countless bubbles before it got to where it is today, and is in the midst of one of the biggest one in history yet. No I'm not talking about housing, I'm talking about the debt bubble, which has yet to burst.

USA's bubble scheme is the biggest in history and are orders of magnitude bigger than what China offers. If you think it's over, you have a few decade of surprises waiting for you going forward.

From a realistic point of view, if you're trading assets/monetary credits from a massively bubbled economy; to a somewhat bubbled economy; you're actually doing risk reduction. Thus, running away from USA/USD based assets to hard commodity and Chinese stocks makes sense.

For people who're warmongering, even fictitiously on this forum, know that China doesn't have to fight to end any war. Pending a crisis, just cover and blind eye and "release" a couple of billion of refugee a day to the world/USA, and everyone will have a humanitarian and economic crisis immediately.

What are the countries going to do? Bomb the refugee ships? Sure that would be acceptable to the democratic public. Also, even if 50% of them slips through, you still have a crisis in the country.

This is Sun Tzu's art of war. You have to think outside the military box.

How You Know the Chinese Market Is in Trouble

Need more fear mongering articles like these.

As a contrarian, without people screaming "China stock will fail" and "the great china stock crash is coming" and "how the china govt will trigger the crash", *I* would be concerned and sell my holdings.

I did exactly that in 2007 and early 2008; when everyone and his mother no longer feared China and everyone wanted to ask me how to switch 401K to increase China exposure.

There's enough fear of China right now to trigger a healthy, strong "climb the wall of worry" rally. When the bears all turn greedy and jump onto the bandwagon, that's when it's time to get out.

Goldman's China Portfolio: Professional Investing or Day Trading Rag?

The market can remain irrational a whole lot longer than you can remain solvent or patient.

That is the key key mantra.

I do not doubt China is blowing a bubble; I also do not doubt that some of the stocks are overvalued. However, consider this with the big picture, and you tell me where to put your money:

USA is coming off the biggest bubble scheme in history. A never before seen perfect storm collision of: Credit, Housing, Debt bubble and even stock are bubbling orders of magnitude bigger than what China offers.

From a realistic point of view, if you're trading assets/monetary credits from a massively bubbled economy; to a somewhat bubbled economy; you're actually doing risk reduction.

Due to global savings glut, there's really no "non-bubbled" places of the 1980's kind left in the world anymore, this even includes Oil and Glod.

Thus, you have to view our current market in perspective. GS is more right than wrong, that China's stock bubble is going to take a while to run to exhaustion -- far longer than how other bubbles is going to unwind.

The big bubble you should worry about is UST and the real RE market that's currently being covered up through a series of Mark to Model, TARP, Not going to foreclosure, Not relisting REO, Not recognizing security paper losses problem.

China's tiny stock market pales in comparision.

The China Stock Bubble Is Back

The market can remain irrational a whole lot longer than you can remain solvent or patient.

That is the key key mantra.

I do not doubt China is blowing a bubble; I also do not doubt that some of the stocks are overvalued. However, consider this with the big picture, and you tell me where to put your money:

USA is coming off the biggest bubble scheme in history. A never before seen perfect storm collision of: Credit, Housing, Debt bubble and even stock are bubbling orders of magnitude bigger than what China offers.

From a realistic point of view, if you're trading assets/monetary credits from a massively bubbled economy; to a somewhat bubbled economy; you're actually doing risk reduction.

Due to global savings glut, there's really no "non-bubbled" places of the 1980's kind left in the world anymore, this even includes Oil and Glod.

Thus, you have to view our current market in perspective. GS is more right than wrong, that China's stock bubble is going to take a while to run to exhaustion -- far longer than how other bubbles is going to unwind.

The big bubble you should worry about is UST and the real RE market that's currently being covered up through a series of Mark to Model, TARP, Not going to foreclosure, Not relisting REO, Not recognizing security paper losses problem.

China's tiny stock market pales in comparision.

Stocks and Sectors That Could Catch Swine Flu Symptoms

You kidding me?! "A matter of months?"?

SARS was absolutely terrifying and destructive on the economies it hit. Go back and read up on what happened to the local economies, even advanced ones like Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. See pictures of what happened to people's lives.

And it didn't just go away, it returned in a year.

Our best bet is hoping that this not as deadly as SARS -- which dissolved the lungs and organs of the affected people and had an abnormally high death rate. Even post recovery, the loss in lung function is permanently carried by the people it affected.

On Apr 27 02:36 AM HaavBline wrote:

> Like SARS, worst case this will be resolved in a matter of months.
> So if any sector responds sharply to this flu, it would be a good
> opportunity to take the opposite position.

Stocks and Sectors That Could Catch Swine Flu Symptoms

If the flu is an pandemic and spreads to mainland, you forgot these industries:

1. Retail
2. Restaurant
3. Entertainment, esp those with a gathering of people, like theme parks, beaches and theatres.
4. Public transportation
5. Hotel

Basically, anything that cannot be done in isolation and away from groups of people.

I hope it doesn't spread very wide, and I hope it's not deadly like SARS.

Swine Flu: Why You Can Ignore the Hype

I have family and friends that lived with the SARS situation, and believe me, the pall it casts over the whole city/country is amazing. And it's not overblown fear either -- people who get it have a high chance of dying, or even living with permanent lung loss. It really was a heroic act that the affected countries managed to survive that collectively.

We won't know until a few months later, when either actual reports of diseased people come in, or when WHO makes an actual judgment on the virulence and death rate of the virus.

Swine Flu: Why You Can Ignore the Hype

SARS killed the Asian retail, travel, tourism, restaurant and agriculture business for a pretty long time.

If swine flu is anything close to that, or command a fear factor close to that, we're doomed.

Most likely the hype is overblown (I hope!!!), but anytime a flu crosses a species boundary, it usually has unlimited growth potential in the new species (in this case, human); because there's no built in immunity to that virus. So the danger is real.

'U.S. Banking System Is Effectively Insolvent' - Soros

The CDS mess must be cleaned up, then the too big to fail entities can be allowed to fail.

Think about it, this whole thing is stuck exactly because of CDSs. No CDS, then individual entities failing doesn't do the system any harm -- merely ripples in the pond and only hurting the companies in direct dealings with the failed entity.

Not sure why Tim and Ben don't want to deal with the CDS issues. The CDSs are like webs spun by the banks to tie their company's existence with the whole system. It's their weapon of mass destruction used to threaten the US govt. Take those away, and they're powerless.

Force CDS to be surrendered to a single govt clearinghouse by a certain date, or be rendered null and void. Create a moratorium on the creation of new CDSs. *THEN* let any insolvent banks die. The remaining system will clean itself up.

Amid contending descriptions of the economic crisis, GW Law professor Lawrence Cunningham likes The Great Repression. Why? Because "unconscious exclusion of painful realities from the conscious mind caused the crisis, and continues to infect policy responses to it."

Delusion or foresight...
Repression or optimism...
Prosperity or bad accounting...

They're all both sides of the same coin!

It's easy to call our last decade the Great Repression *AFTER THE FACT* -- remember this same period was called the great Goldilocks economy just 18 months ago. And it's the *SAME* ECONOMIC PERIOD! I can cite plenty of economics, law and Phd professors who swears by Goldilocks in 2007; or "new economy" in 2000!! Hindsight is 20-20!

I don't need a law professor to tell me that:

When we're in a descent, things look grim and we give the environment grim names; when we're in an ascend, things look bright and we give them bright names.

Taking it to the extremes, suppose the next 10 years we see some as yet unforeseen technological and economic miracle, then this current time -- 2009 -- may yet be labeled as the great investment opportunity! Or the reverse, suppose the next 10 years, things collapse down to end of human civilization level, then this current time -- 2009 -- may be labeled as the last days of a great civilization.

Isn't economics fun?! All outcomes are possible!!!

What we need is the ability to accurately tell the future.

But that's an impossible task.

You have to understand that markets are reflexive in nature; and attempts to project it also alters it (because you can use the projection to invest or change your investment behavior, which then changes the future market.)

As human beings, we're sometimes running around in circles because of this limitation. Similar to how a moth will fly in circles around a light bulb; because it is limited in what and how far it can see / think.

The only difference is that some professor will write an esoteric article and sound like the wise man in an ivory tower. Some other man on the street will simply confess "I don't know the future".

The Mark-to-Market Myth

RE is coming back this year, or soon; don’t doubt it.

With the new FASB mark to fantasy ruling, the following changes to key statistics is under way:

1. Banks capital ratio is now fantasy ratio, and will allow them to lend.
2. Banks can now hold onto REOs, indefinitely. There’s no incentive to sell at market. By holding REOs, banks can rate that REO asset at 2007 level. Sure they’ll have to put taxes and maintenance, but that’s going to be like a cost of business to keep 2007-model alive.
3. Similarly, Banks can now DRAGGG ON the NOD and foreclosure process. Expect things like allowing people to stay, semi-permantly (as in for months and years at a time), rent free; without any foreclosure NODs or auctions or what not. Next few months you’ll see a sharp decline in new foreclosures as the banks adapt.
4. Commercial RE (CRE) was going to be a bomb in 2009, because all those commercial loans are due and the market valuation means no bank will refi them. Well no more, we’re not using market valuation anymore, so those model all says these CREs are awesome profits, so there’ll be increased refi of CREs and the crisis averted.
5. With the new model, HELOCs may even be a viable source of credit for consumers now; Those on the margin may find banks offering HELOC now, the home ATM is now open!
6. Ditto to Credit Card ABSs, the model says much better profitability; In fact, there’ll be more solicitations for people to own more cards; coz the model says it’s such good business, plus the customer can use one card to pay off another — further enhancing default rate for their model!
7. The obvious is that all the bank’s financial releases for the rest of 2009 will beat expectation now. So now permabulls have ammunition to say recession is over.

Bears are fighting a losing cause with the deck to heavily stacked against them.

Are these going to be a permanent solution, or actually save us from impending doom? Heck no. It’s the same playbook from Japan that pretty much sealed their fate to the 20 year economic decline. *BUT* it’ll drag everything into SLOW MOTION decline.

Kinda like treating an acute disease that *MAY* kill you, by taking a poison that kills the bacteria and the short term disease problem, but guarantees you will die SLOWLY. We just did that.

I thought I could time the market and buy a house in 2010 or 2011; I can see my folly now. The govt will make it a money losing proposition to own a house for 20 years. The govt will stretch it out so long, so maximum number of people are bearing the housing decline and nobody can “time” and get “out” — in the end you need a place to stay, and that is their trump card.

I think I’m so depressed I’ll go jump off a bridge somewhere now.

The Big Banking Emperors' New Clothes

RE is coming back this year, or soon; don’t doubt it.

With the new FASB mark to fantasy ruling, the following changes to key statistics is under way:

1. Banks capital ratio is now fantasy ratio, and will allow them to lend.
2. Banks can now hold onto REOs, indefinitely. There’s no incentive to sell at market. By holding REOs, banks can rate that REO asset at 2007 level. Sure they’ll have to put taxes and maintenance, but that’s going to be like a cost of business to keep 2007-model alive.
3. Similarly, Banks can now DRAGGG ON the NOD and foreclosure process. Expect things like allowing people to stay, semi-permantly (as in for months and years at a time), rent free; without any foreclosure NODs or auctions or what not. Next few months you’ll see a sharp decline in new foreclosures as the banks adapt.
4. Commercial RE (CRE) was going to be a bomb in 2009, because all those commercial loans are due and the market valuation means no bank will refi them. Well no more, we’re not using market valuation anymore, so those model all says these CREs are awesome profits, so there’ll be increased refi of CREs and the crisis averted.
5. With the new model, HELOCs may even be a viable source of credit for consumers now; Those on the margin may find banks offering HELOC now, the home ATM is now open!
6. Ditto to Credit Card ABSs, the model says much better profitability; In fact, there’ll be more solicitations for people to own more cards; coz the model says it’s such good business, plus the customer can use one card to pay off another — further enhancing default rate for their model!
7. The obvious is that all the bank’s financial releases for the rest of 2009 will beat expectation now. So now permabulls have ammunition to say recession is over.

Bears are fighting a losing cause with the deck to heavily stacked against them.

Are these going to be a permanent solution, or actually save us from impending doom? Heck no. It’s the same playbook from Japan that pretty much sealed their fate to the 20 year economic decline. *BUT* it’ll drag everything into SLOW MOTION decline.

Kinda like treating an acute disease that *MAY* kill you, by taking a poison that kills the bacteria and the short term disease problem, but guarantees you will die SLOWLY. We just did that.

I thought I could time the market and buy a house in 2010 or 2011; I can see my folly now. The govt will make it a money losing proposition to own a house for 20 years. The govt will stretch it out so long, so maximum number of people are bearing the housing decline and nobody can “time” and get “out” — in the end you need a place to stay, and that is their trump card.

I think I’m so depressed I’ll go jump off a bridge somewhere now.