GE, Goldman Bond Spreads: Unrealistic and Unsustainable [View article]
The article's premise is right, although the conclusion is doubful.
The spread between what CDS is saying someone will demand to insure against default; vs interest, which is what someone is demanding in yield (which (in theory) should include default risk) is an interesting angle.
Either CDS folks are wrong and/or bond people are wrong. In any other period, the two should converge and agree. The fact that they're not says something:
1. There's something artificially suppressing bond yields 2. There's something increasing the inherent risk in CDS market itself, that is showing up as a general increased CDS rates for everything that needs insurance. In other words: AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SYSTEMIC FAILURE.
Insurance fails or have a loss when everything being insured fails at once; and to guard against such large scale loss, premiums (for everything) have to increase when such risks increase. Think how much insurance went up when Katrina occurred and caused widespread losses.
These two pieces of data tells a story with these 2 numbers: that *IF* there's no systemic failure, then GE bonds should be at it's face value. CDS is saying there's a general heightened risk of systemic failure, and GE's vulnerability is rather high.
Free-Market Healthcare Falling Victim to Recession [View article]
Response to Socialism cannot compete....
Let's see, Hepatitis can be a STD; so are AIDS. So we should exclude those.
Alcohol accidents, is irresponsible living, but so is obesity "irresponsible living". In fact, diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease can all be attributed to "living styles" that one can label as irresponsible.
Getting the flu is irresponsible, seeing we have vaccines; but so is getting any disease that can be vaccinated; including HPV that can ultimately cause Cervical cancer.
Heavy cellphone usage can cause brain cancer, so can other forms of cancer with working with petrochemical products, and smoking, so we can investigate a person's cellphone usage, jobs, and behavior and filter out "irresponsible behavior" first.
I'll add tooth decay and gum problems too, coz you're responsible and take proper care of your mouth, it's impossible to have a tooth issue.
Turns out most genetic disease is also irresponsible! If you had a genetic disposition to have offsprings that have genetic flaws, esp if both you and your spouse is tested, it's irresponsible for you to have offsprings, so you're on your own if you do get it.
If you didn't test your water supply regularly, your air in your homes, your food, you're irresponsible, so don't come crying if you get cancer unless you can prove you did all those tests regularly.
Your "irresponsible exclusion" is so powerful, that you'll be labeled the medical insurance industry's savior. It's more powerful than the "pre-existing condition" clause that's usually used to exclude service.
What an arrogant, self-righteous and holier than thou response.
GE Could Tap Fed Fund, Goose Credit Markets [View article]
Consider this:
Do a chapter 13 on top X % of most cash-poor companies. This will allow re-org of debt, contracts, wipe out claims. A single, massively painful *but contained* event.
When they emerge, they'll be the engine of growth for the country.
This is the poison pill every wall streeters and govt is fighting tooth and nail to avoid -- Unfortunately, this is also the medicine to cure us of the disease.
GE, Goldman Bond Spreads: Unrealistic and Unsustainable [View article]
The spread between what CDS is saying someone will demand to insure against default; vs interest, which is what someone is demanding in yield (which (in theory) should include default risk) is an interesting angle.
Either CDS folks are wrong and/or bond people are wrong. In any other period, the two should converge and agree. The fact that they're not says something:
1. There's something artificially suppressing bond yields
2. There's something increasing the inherent risk in CDS market itself, that is showing up as a general increased CDS rates for everything that needs insurance. In other words: AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SYSTEMIC FAILURE.
Insurance fails or have a loss when everything being insured fails at once; and to guard against such large scale loss, premiums (for everything) have to increase when such risks increase. Think how much insurance went up when Katrina occurred and caused widespread losses.
These two pieces of data tells a story with these 2 numbers:
that *IF* there's no systemic failure, then GE bonds should be at it's face value. CDS is saying there's a general heightened risk of systemic failure, and GE's vulnerability is rather high.
Free-Market Healthcare Falling Victim to Recession [View article]
Let's see, Hepatitis can be a STD; so are AIDS. So we should exclude those.
Alcohol accidents, is irresponsible living, but so is obesity "irresponsible living". In fact, diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease can all be attributed to "living styles" that one can label as irresponsible.
Getting the flu is irresponsible, seeing we have vaccines; but so is getting any disease that can be vaccinated; including HPV that can ultimately cause Cervical cancer.
Heavy cellphone usage can cause brain cancer, so can other forms of cancer with working with petrochemical products, and smoking, so we can investigate a person's cellphone usage, jobs, and behavior and filter out "irresponsible behavior" first.
I'll add tooth decay and gum problems too, coz you're responsible and take proper care of your mouth, it's impossible to have a tooth issue.
Turns out most genetic disease is also irresponsible! If you had a genetic disposition to have offsprings that have genetic flaws, esp if both you and your spouse is tested, it's irresponsible for you to have offsprings, so you're on your own if you do get it.
If you didn't test your water supply regularly, your air in your homes, your food, you're irresponsible, so don't come crying if you get cancer unless you can prove you did all those tests regularly.
Your "irresponsible exclusion" is so powerful, that you'll be labeled the medical insurance industry's savior. It's more powerful than the "pre-existing condition" clause that's usually used to exclude service.
What an arrogant, self-righteous and holier than thou response.
GE Could Tap Fed Fund, Goose Credit Markets [View article]
Do a chapter 13 on top X % of most cash-poor companies. This will allow re-org of debt, contracts, wipe out claims. A single, massively painful *but contained* event.
When they emerge, they'll be the engine of growth for the country.
This is the poison pill every wall streeters and govt is fighting tooth and nail to avoid -- Unfortunately, this is also the medicine to cure us of the disease.
GE Could Tap Fed Fund, Goose Credit Markets [View article]
The big ones must and need to fail.
The big failure must be allowed to happen to reboot the system.
Any other struggle is merely postponing the inevitable.