Consider_this

Stocks and Sectors That Could Catch Swine Flu Symptoms

You kidding me?! "A matter of months?"?

SARS was absolutely terrifying and destructive on the economies it hit. Go back and read up on what happened to the local economies, even advanced ones like Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. See pictures of what happened to people's lives.

And it didn't just go away, it returned in a year.

Our best bet is hoping that this not as deadly as SARS -- which dissolved the lungs and organs of the affected people and had an abnormally high death rate. Even post recovery, the loss in lung function is permanently carried by the people it affected.

On Apr 27 02:36 AM HaavBline wrote:

> Like SARS, worst case this will be resolved in a matter of months.
> So if any sector responds sharply to this flu, it would be a good
> opportunity to take the opposite position.

Stocks and Sectors That Could Catch Swine Flu Symptoms

If the flu is an pandemic and spreads to mainland, you forgot these industries:

1. Retail
2. Restaurant
3. Entertainment, esp those with a gathering of people, like theme parks, beaches and theatres.
4. Public transportation
5. Hotel

Basically, anything that cannot be done in isolation and away from groups of people.

I hope it doesn't spread very wide, and I hope it's not deadly like SARS.

Another Bloodbath?

gabe:

What is the fundamental driver for US growth in your upcoming boom?

Until you can answer that question, what you've described is only market psychology guesses.

1. Consumers are tapped out.
2. Housing as a growth engine is done, we've miraculously build so much houses that demand will be sated for a long time. Boomers are past their prime home-owning demographic peak and is going to downsize/cash-out going forward and act as a net drag on home values.
3. Export as a solution is completely toast. Rest of the world is in turmoil and cannot import our products with their demand nor buying power.
4. Debt as a money-infusing mechanism is done. We'll be lucky if it doesn't blow up in our face, let alone provide an engine for growth. A cousin of debt is the mandatory govt obligations (aka Social Security, Medicare) is also going to become a net drain on resources from the economy.
5. Boomers are moving more and more into sunset years, and that engine of net demand gain is becoming more a net demand drain.

Until you solve the fundamental economics problem, everything else is just building castle in the air.

Another Bloodbath?

With the above happening in real time.

I hear things like:

Equities/Gold/House/Ha... Asset is King.

all the time!

Unless there's mass delusion out there or I'm not invited to smoke something great.

What gives? (beyond random hope)

Another Bloodbath?

Gold is down to $666, broke the critical 700 level that is support for a long time. This bodes ill for anyone. Whole market is down. Budgets are tight. Jobs are scarce.

Demand of finished goods dropped off a cliff. Ask any car/bestbuy/home/furni... driver/gasoline dealer.

This is the clearest indication that we're running headlong into a deflation.

And then fed's money lending/giving spree is getting stuck inside banks (shoring up balance sheet), recycled right back into buying treasuries, and fighting a losing battle with the amount of money currently evaporated by the deleveraging event.

Fed print about 2 trillion so far, which on it's own sounds like a lot. But the market's deleveraging lost more then 4 already (and perhaps 10 times that still not "reported" or in the pipelines).

Sounds like a losing battle to me.